Friday update

SHORT TERM: odd gap up opening retraced, DOW -34

Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.4%. Europe opened higher but lost 0.2%. US index futures were higher overnight. At 8:30 the CPI was reported higher: +0.3% v +0.4%, Housing starts were reported higher: 1174k v 1036k, and Building permits were reported higher: 1343k v 1275k. The market oddly gapped up at the open, without futures support, to SPX 2129. Then it immediately pulled back to SPX 2121 in the opening minutes. At 10am Consumer sentiment was reported lower: 93.3 v 96.1. After a small bounce the SPX hit its low of the day at 2120 around 10:30. The market then went into a four point trading range until late in the afternoon, when it broke out to SPX 2127 and closed there.

For the day the SPX/DOW were mixed, and the NDX/NAZ were +1.2%. Bonds lost 1 tick, Crude slipped 10 cents, Gold dropped $11, and the USD was higher. Medium term support remains at the 2085 and 2070 pivots, with resistance at the 2131 and 2198 pivots. Today the WLEI was reported lower: 50.6% v 51.2%.

The market gapped up at the open today for the third time this week. After opening at SPX 2129, a new high for the uptrend, the market pulled back to 2120. We can now count five waves up from SPX 2051, and still three waves up from 2045: 2074-2051-2129. Today’s high could have possibly ended the third wave rally. To confirm this, however, we would like to see the market decline below SPX 2110 early next week. If not, we will just assume the third wave is subdividing further. Short term support is now at SPX 2120 and SPX 2102, with resistance at the 2131 and 2198 pivots. Short term momentum declined a bit from this morning’s overbought condition, but closed out the week quite overbought. Best to your weekend!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: bull market


About tony caldaro

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42 Responses to Friday update

  1. NEWBIE says:

    9.2+ Mega-Quake Imminent; FEMA Warns 100 Ft Tsunami Will Hit West Coast

  2. Caldero a lot of people heavily short Gold right now . What say you?

  3. Jim Guthery says:

    Bloomberg’s Callie Bost reports that the recent five-day implosion in the VIX, which coincided with relief from Grexit concerns and a stabilization in China’s roller-coaster stock markets, is the sharpest in history. “The low relative rank implies equity market is too complacent vs. other asset classes again, just like before the memorial weekend when we highlighted the bearish signal.”

    • Jim Guthery says:

      Just saying, I agree with Tony though. One more drop in the market and I am out of uvxy and into dry bulk shippers. maybe NAT if it ever pulls back! Anybody have thoughts on FRO?

    • NEWBIE says:

      biggest vix flush/ manipulation/implosion; was necessary to clear out market shorts before the next monster wave down.

  4. zepfan123 says:

    Well I sure don’t see anything with todays close that makes me think we’re going to drop hard next week back to the Greek worry lows we made 2 weeks ago. Wish I did..that would be a jackpot trade with some SPX shorts.- But this rotation of money from one sector to another sector will just keep us either sideways or a grind up to new ATH’s on the Dow and S&P. Of course with the super rally the last 2 days in stocks like GOOG and NFLX..the COMP did make a new ATH close today over 5200 for the first time. We’re just 5 pts away from a new ATH close on the SPX(2130.82),so with all this rallying going on this week I highly doubt we drop hard next week.

    • NEWBIE says:

      zep, world is falling apart in front of you and you can’t see it?

      • torehund says:

        ..agree Newbie, but where does money then flee ?

      • zepfan123 says:

        Believe me Newb..I see what you see out there happening economically on our little marble.And it stinks but that doesn’t mean a true market top is right around the corner. Analyzing the last 120 years of the U.S. markets shows us that rally can go on a lot longer than it should based on deteriorating fundamentals. If finding tops were easy we could all be super wealthy..- I’m not buying anything else stock wise for a long,long time here. What I’ve got is what I’ve got… with staggered trialing stop-limit orders in 10% increments lower when we start the next real stair-step down correction.- But that said..I think timing a good top accuratlry here is going to be next to impossible. When I see all sectors with a lot of stocks dropping at the same time with no next day “V” bottom recoveries I’ll be a lot ore convinced a real top may be in for a good long stretch.
        By the way..whats your call for next week’s action ? Up or down ?
        Let me guess..down ?…right ?🙂

      • Newbie, the world has been falling apart since the days of Socrates. Just trade on price and you will be fine. cheers

        • NEWBIE says:

          Matteo, its hard for me to be long after market has tripled in six year on funny money fed pumping and I do believe a new currency backed by gold/silver is soon going to be implemented.

          • tommyboys says:

            Metals will NEVER be implemented as currency. If anything – as they’ve done before – and likely the biggest risk – they will be made illegal to hold or own. If armageddon EVER does arrive, governments will confiscate all for their own use. Commodities are in their own secular bear now anyway.

          • pooch77 says:

            Newbie since market top in 2007 market has only been up 8.5 % a year careful with 2009 oversold route down to 666.You can play games with numbers to make them fit a scenario

  5. torehund says:

    Good weekend to all, bears and bulls.

  6. Hope you all bought some AAPL get read for wave 5 $140-150 zone.

  7. mjtplayer says:

    Thanks Tony!

    Sizable drop in the WLEI, which seems to have topped and is rolling back over. This, combined with weak retail sales data is concerning data for the economy. Atlanta Fed is tracking Q2 GDP at 2.4%, looks like the economy was limping into the end of Q2 and is starting Q3 weaker than Q2.

  8. llerias7 says:

    Tony, you are saying 3rd wave i.e. minute or micro 3 of wave 1 (Int.III)?

  9. fotis2 says:

    Thanks Tony daily CCI hit 100 and stayed there could reverse down here but could also go higher seeing that we are very close to ATH wouldn’t suprise if it still has another leg up another positive is 3bar reversal on weekly.GL.

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