Monday update

SHORT TERM: gap up opening again, DOW +217

Overnight the Asian markets gained 1.4%. Europe opened higher and gained 1.5%. US index futures were at first much lower overnight, then rebounded on reports of a EU/Greek deal. The market gapped up at the open to SPX 2091 and continued to rally. The SPX had closed at 2077 on Friday. Around 10:30 the SPX hit 2098, then drifted down to 2093 by 1pm. At 2pm the Treasury budget reported another surplus: $51.8bn v $70.5bn. Heading into the close the SPX hit 2101, then dipped to close at 2100.

For the day the SPX/DOW gained 1.15%, and the NDX/NAZ gained 1.60%. Bonds lost 7 ticks, Crude dropped 55 cents, Gold slid $5, and the USD was higher. Medium term support rises to the 2085 and 2070 pivots, with resistance at the 2131 and 2198 pivots. Tomorrow: Retail sales and Export/Import prices at 8:30, then Business inventories at 10am.

The market gapped up at the open for the third day in a row. These three gap ups all occurred right after the SPX hit 2045 last Wednesday. The recent market action is certainly starting to look like a kick off to a new uptrend. After hitting a morning high of SPX 2098, beyond the 2085 pivot range, the market pulled back and then made a higher high. We continue to see three waves up from the SPX 2045 low: 2074-2051-2101. The third wave may have a smaller subdivision worth noting: 2076-2067-2101. With the market now heading into the four months of overhead resistance between SPX 2100-2135, we may see some choppiness Tuesday/Wednesday. Short term support is now at the 2085 and 2070 pivots, with resistance at the 2131 and 2198 pivots. Short term momentum is currently displaying a very slight negative divergence. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend trying to get established

LONG TERM: bull market


About tony caldaro

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144 Responses to Monday update

  1. student8888 says:

    Mr. C, did you get an uptrend confirmation today? Thx.

  2. blackjak100 says:

    lots of debate here while I’m on the sidelines. I’m almost certain we will get a decent pullback short of ATH either way shortly. If wave 4 of ED ended at 2044, then another ABC for wave 5 with A almost complete. If ED completed at 2130, then we will make another lower high for wave ii. It will be the momentum of decline which will tell us which count is correct. GL and Cheers!

  3. fotis2 says:

    Well done Mr.T there has been views,news and counts galore but you stuck to yours and did not deviate.A good example for us all.

  4. fishonhook says:

    Sniping shorts are all I can take here. Small short. Tight stop. It wouldn’t shock me for the market to dive or blast off. It is looking for a catalyst to do either and as one poster said the natural pull is up, even at these elevated levels. The money generated and put into the hands of a chosen few has to go somewhere

    • There is a Bradley date either tomorrow or Thursday depending on who you ask, and at extremes (multiweek or all time highs or low) they’ve produced reactions in almost every case the last year and a half. The recent 2056 low was the exception, in that 2044 came the week after.

      So somewhere up here at 3 week (or better if it keeps going), I’d expect a reaction down that should be good for some distance through next week, or based on recency, two weeks from now

      • mjtplayer says:

        Bradley turn date is Thursday the 16th, but it’s a minor date.

        The last Bradley turn date on July 1st was a minor high, this one should also be a high given where we are, but is a minor turn date too.

        FYI: The next big Bradley turn date is Aug 27th. The last major turn date was Sunday May 25th (we topped on Wed 5/20 intra-day on the SPX and the closing high was Thursday 5/21), so the Bradley date was accurate last time around.

        • fishonhook says:

          I dont think Bradley dates are accurate enough to trade by, but then again are counts 😉

        • That’s on the Zimmel model, but there is another site that has it tomorrow. I checked ALL of them though at extremes like all time highs, and even did a spreadsheet for all the ones that occurred at extremes to see the reactions. Minor or not, if at extreme its worked and there has been a decent reactions. 7 of 9 saw the biggest reaction of three weeks (including the week of the extreme) in the third week, 1 of 9 in the second week (would be next week), and that 2056 I’m not counting but if I was this week would be the biggest reaction off of it as a low.

          Just as an example of the May one you are talking about, I have 5/23 as the date, 5/20 as the extreme (as you note), and the biggest reaction of three weeks in the third week.

          Other dates where the market was at extremes I have are 2/8/2014, 10/17/2014, 12/26/2014, 2/1/2015, 3/13/2015, 4/26/2015, 5/23/2015, 6/9/2015 and now tomorrow or Thursday since we are at three week highs here.

    • Rancho says:

      Foh, I have been reading your posts and found you to be very reasonable and well informed. You should’ve done sniping longs instead of shorts when we are not done with even minor 1 of int. iii.

      • fishonhook says:

        Well to be honest Rancho, I don’t buy the current count, and have been following several other counts. However it has not been correct so far, this inching higher I have seen before. It is caused by moderate buying pressure and shorts stopped out, reshorting not to miss the turn and stopped out etc.

        I was one of them 🙂

      • Rancho says:

        Yes. No buying pressure now. But maybe after the minor 2 pullback, minor 3 will look more real. Somehow, it seems like 2200+ is on the cards.

  5. Dex T says:

    Lost in the Greek drama is the interest rate hike.

    Odds on for September rate hike: Fisher

    An interest rate hike by the U.S. Federal Reserve should come in September, Richard Fisher, former president and chief executive of the Dallas Fed, told CNBC Tuesday.

    “The markets, to me, have already discounted a first rate rise and (Fed Chair) Janet Yellen has made it very clear it’s being considered and is on the table,” he told CNBC Europe’s “Squawk Box.”

    • arthurk says:

      Contrary to popular opinion the Fed usually follows interest rates higher not lead. I recently discovered the St. Louis data service for historical rates
      Comparing rate increases to the 2-year note ($UST2Y) from 2004-2006, you can see that while the 2-yr was at 1.5% they kept the FF rate at 1%, then as the 2 yr rose so did the FF rate. So preference is FF rate .50% below 2 yr rate. By mid-2005 2yr was 3.5% and FF rate was 3%, by mid 2006 both were 5.25% (inverted yield curve = danger).

      As of Mon 2 – yr was .69% so it probably needs to be over .75% LT for a .25% FF hike.

      • fionamargaret says:

        …nice work arthurk – I usually listen to the bonds – they are thinking not yet, thus December more likely.

  6. jwmcbride says:

    Update sep es 3 of 3 near completion at 2109

  7. bhuggs52 says:

    Liquidated my remaining long. It’s now time to go purchase the smoked salmon.

  8. stmro says:

    This has all the hallmarks of a 2014-style melt-up i.e. inching upwards with only 1-2 pt pullbacks along the way. Will see whether there’s some weakness into the close, but on current evidence, that 2100.5 short doesn’t look so good!

    To all those people talking about why low volume is a reason to be bearish. Have a look at the volume profile of up days vs down days for this entire bull market. Volume does not dictate price in the age of QE. People should have learnt that by now!

    • NEWBIE says:

      You are basing everything off of “the Bull Market” BUT we could have started and be in a bear market now. If we are in a Bear market now, well then the bull market assumptions and facts mean little.

  9. July Opex week is notorious for trend reversals especially those that followed after a market run up. Many of these are BIG turning points. Don’t believe go check your charts. And here of some of the big one 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2007, these are just some of the big one many of the other years where very close to or part of a ongoing decline. Just saying.

    • camper1888 says:

      You said it , from down trend to up trend

      • notorious from uptrend to DOWN! not up

        • In 2011 P2 was already underway prior to July Opex

          • alexhartley1 says:

            El Matador – I have the 16-17th as a turn date if it helps however I see us falling into the 16th. Today is possible the last wave higher of minute 3 of minor 1 of int. iii. The 17th should be a new turn higher. Obviously there is a chance that it’s all 1 scale smaller in waves as we seem to have quite sometime to go till Q1-Q2 2016. I am bullish but that’s how I see it for now.

        • NEWBIE says:

          El Mat, we may be the only ones short when the bottom falls out on this market. Everyone has an excuse or reason to why this market has to go higher or cant go down.

        • El Mat, NDX always runs close to its today’s high. It looks market ignores all negative news and usually means a strong market. Do you think today is similar to 07/05/2011?

          • FBT, NDX is in a league of it’s own. The NDX batting lineup of 2011 is very different from today’s line up. Not to mention that the top 10 stock of 107 control 50% of that index. NDX will top off when it hyperbolic mojo stocks (e.g. FB, AMZN, TSLA, AAPL, etc) stop growing. At a glance it look the pattern looks similar and I would expect a marginal higher high from NDX to confirm it’s top.

  10. Peter Sliney says:

    This market as of recent has completely debunked Newton’s first law of motion. Equal and opposite forces should not be colliding every week. But maybe time are changing. Gap over weekend gap should fill soon.

  11. NEWBIE says:

    Tsipras struggled to persuade deeply unhappy leftist lawmakers to vote for a package of austerity measures and liberal economic reforms to secure a new bailout.

    • Dex T says:

      No surprises. He was elected on the promises of anti-austerity and reneged on them to secure a terrible deal for his constituents. Nobody can be really happy with what was achieved.

      Even if the Greek parliament and EU member states vote for the deal it is very possible that Tsipras will be removed from power and another government elected that will renege. Long term it is not viable.

      Unless there is a Grexit then Greece will be continuously popping in and out of the news.

  12. uncle10 says:

    seems like a good place to try a short trade on spx. gl

  13. uncle10 says:

    they have gone from just doing one fake report per day on a company being bought to now 2 or more each day. And CNBC reporters are acting surprised that it happened?? what am I missing?

  14. NEWBIE says:

    History is about to Repeat Itself. Are you prepared? Best of Luck to All.

    • NEWBIE says:

      My indicators are screaming we are about to drop hard to below 2000 on S&P.

    • zepfan123 says:

      If we get a drop of that percentage here like that 1987 crash…it won’t be a launch pad for an unbelievable rally to the moon this time…but I don’t see anything like happening here now considering the comeback rallys back over support we’ve had the last 3 weeks. Back in ’87, Dow 2700 was an all time high that was almost 200% higher than the previous all time high made just a few years earlier at around Dow 1000 in the early 80’s.10 year later the Dow was 6 times higher at a new super ATH at 12, the quick 1987 crash was really a trick.Obviously the market is still super resilient as we are amazingly back above that Dow 18K-SPX 2100-COMP 5000 combo that seems to be so important to the market. The last 2 weeks the market had a million chances to finally break down and get a real downtrend started for the summer. Last week I thought the odds were pretty good we’d be below SPX 2000 by now. Hard to forecast another chance for that 10,15, or 20% pullback anytime soon now with this market continuing to be so super resilient no matter what is thrown at it.

    • camper1888 says:

      Old news.. The time has changed.. Now fed in control ..

  15. fishonhook says:

    Remarkable how all the bearish set ups, gap fills, head and shoulders break downs etc just resolve bullishly.

    It may be that the TA , which is a probabilities game anyway, has even less validity in an age of constant CB intervention.

    • stephenk1980 says:

      The natural pull of the market is up. Over time shorts are less likely to work than longs. It’s not rocket science.

    • Right…I don t even think its QE anymore..but outright buying of equities by CBs –including us.Past history of say, the currency markets suggest CB intervention only works temporarily and cannot change a long term trend.Still it s formidible and if CBs are in cahoots with GSachs types, could perpetuate it for the benefit of both parties until it doesn t-whenever that is.

    • tommyboys says:

      Once the whole world recognizes patterns – unlike Livermore’s day – they cease to work – they can NOT work – physics. In fact they may just work in contrary…

  16. torehund says:

    ..are we entering the age of the Dark horse, Greece, Putin and Donald ?

  17. Mr C any chance Greece parliament votes no tomorrow?

  18. By the numbers…
    Trend change confirmed from 13 JUL move above SPX 2083.53 Stop 2077.79 and Target 2170.34
    Reversal of trend below 2064.95
    No action for me unless below 2017 and then 1966

    “You must be shapeless, formless, like water. When you pour water in a cup, it becomes the cup. When you pour water in a bottle, it becomes the bottle. When you pour water in a teapot, it becomes the teapot. Water can drip and it can crash. Become like water my friend.”
    Thank you Bruce Lee

    And thank you day traders. 😉

  19. kvilia says:

    Not all the time you have to be invested.

  20. bhuggs52 says:

    My long from Friday is still on the money. I’m just about ready to go for a Costco run for smoked salmon. Meanwhile, the hotbloods here are placing shorts. Hmmmm. UVXY and VXX are definitely at buy levels. Maybe we hit 2110 and things get interesting.

  21. GYN LAB says:

    Enough juice out of that ES2040 long… closing here at 2100 with hourly chart extremely overbought, but still looks like iv-v of this Minor 1 coming in the next few days. Momentum needs calming down a bit before setting up a negative divergence which should push this into 2120-ATH area into OpEx

  22. gtoptions says:

    Thanks Tony
    Short Term Resistance
    SPY ~ WR3 @ 210.65
    SPX ~ 1.618ext @ 2108

  23. mjtplayer says:

    Open gap at SPX 2,101.49 from 6/26 has been filled. Ideally, as a bear, I’d like to see the SPX tag the upper TL of the channel, which lies just under 2,106 and reverse lower. We’ve just tagged the upper TL, so a move above here would begin to break above the TL and become concerning for the bears. A failure here around 2,105-6 and turn lower however would be perfect.

    Spot VIX now in the low 13’s at 13.17. Greece is fixed, China isn’t an issue, we’re off to new highs, no fear, no worries – back to outright complacency.

    SPX hitting the sell area at daily RSI 70, VIX hitting the buy area at daily RSI 30. Both of these levels have been buy/sell areas on multiple occasions over the past 4-5 months.

    Bought some VXX yesterday just under $18, buying more right here in the $17.50’s. All the parameters have now been met, time for turnaround Tuesday. We shall see….

  24. Retail sales miss…-.3% vs +.3%.I think Yellen/Draghi wants us above the 50d.The DAX just went from -60 to -13 in 20 seconds.No breakdowns allowed.Pump those markets up.Sis Boom Rah.Bad news is good news again.Transports not going along.How can profits beat with lousy retail numbers like this?They re sitting on the PMs again.Interest rates steady–why? (Should be down 10 basis points).Nothing is real…Strawberry Fields Forever.
    —a few random thoughts.Good luck all.

  25. NEWBIE says:

    Here comes the BIG DOWN. buckle up!

    • fishonhook says:

      Very funny Newbie. Or it could be bears jumping too. Have my stops for my small shorts just above the HOD. If we bust that we could be heading to a double top or more.

    • Nope. Full steam into opex imo, then late July consolidation followed by sharp summer rally into August. This is the most probable scenario suggested by charts,sentiment and end of Greek nonsense relief.

  26. stmro says:

    Smallest AH range I’ve seen in months. Someone is pinning us here, guaranteed.

  27. uncle10 says:

    Thanks Tony. no lack of movement this summer 🙂

  28. mjtplayer says:

    Bears capitulating and second guessing themselves, bulls euphoric and looking for new ATH’s, looks like the “B” wave is doing it’s job. So far it’s a 2 day rally back to the .618 retracement area. Yes, the price action was strong, but volume sucked today and that’s after falling-off Friday from the heavy volume during the week.

    If we break up and out of the downtrend channel and start pushing into the 2,120’s then the bulls have the ball and I’ll have to change my count. Until then, it’s just an oversold bounce.

  29. blackjak100 says:

    There isn’t much to say. If the ED ended at 2130, it needs to exert itself quickly which seems unlikely. There was too much bearishness very quickly as indicated by put/call ratio last couple weeks. It registered higher than the correction to 1821. If the S&P closes up tomorrow, it will be first time since Jan that it closed higher 4 consec days. Today was the first time in 12 days NYSE had more new highs than lows. I think WaveTrading said it best….

    I am really in a puzzle over how SP500 remains supported in spite of extremely weak oscillators (Both monthly and weekly) and breadth indicators.

    Did wave 4 of ED really end at 2044 and now onto 2190’s? Not a good look, but it still meets all the EW rules for contracting ED.

    • BJ, it took weeks for put/call ratio to get uber-bearish but only 2 day (try more like 1 day) to go back to uber-bullish

      • blackjak100 says:

        I am aware of that, but only matters if price turns down immediately. My only point was it got more extreme during a 4% drop than it ever did during the 9.9% drop back in Oct.

        • timmy321 says:

          blackjak100 says:
          July 8, 2015 at 5:05 pm
          Ty but still unfinished business to downside if my wave iii call is correct. NYAD -2000 today with a dovish fed minutes released. This market will not change course with a snap of finger as there’s a lot of technical damage to repair first. Can’t believe people on here are going long but it’s not my $ so who am I to say.

          So seeing is believing. Market changed course at a snap of a finger and those who went long did the right thing with their $.

          • blackjak100 says:

            It still has to make new high above 2130. Right now we have lower high & lower low. Yes, it has changed course with a snap of finger, but not to magnitude I was referring to…yet

          • blackjak100 says:

            Just an FYI…we closed substantially lower on 7/9 and I said that on 7/8.

          • timmy321 says:

            Just an FYI…we closed substantially lower on 7/9 and I said that on 7/8.

            Oh yeah you are the trading God who knows what the market will do the very next day.

          • blackjak100 says:

            Just sayin’ cuz it makes a big difference.

      • tommyboys says:

        One day does not a market make. The weekly is not “uber” anything.

        Multi-month consolidation done. Market going WAY higher next several months.

        • fotis2 says:

          In the shorter term a weekly close above 2100=3bar weekly reversal target >2150.

        • Yes I know TB, and never said it did. Honestly, I don’t use any “fear-o-meter” dial or vehicle/product (e.g. CPC, CPCI, CPCE, VIX, CNN Fear/Greed, etc) to shape my market view. Yes I know that when these indicators hit extreme readings they can point to turning points but there is no consistence as to the level of extreme reading and therefore they are very unreliable indicator in most cases, IMO. I only use Price Chart, RSI, MACD, candles/bars, charting, and yes EW not EWP (aka EW-Prechtler-izer style)

          Hey TB, is ok if I call you Mr. Partridge. Mr. Partridge’s was known for his famous remark “Well, this is a bull market, you know.” I mean this as a compliment and not sarcasm.

    • bhuggs52 says:

      The best article yet that I’ve seen on the Greek crisis. I had wondered whether Tsipras was desperate and grasping at straws, or simply not trustworthy to bestow him with the fate of the Greek people and a hoped for reasonable outcome. Also, I appreciate the author’s note that the very wealthy of Greece benefitted the most from the country’s so-called economic leniencies. It’s not just the pensioners at the government spigot.

      • JeffMilano says:

        Thank you for the article. Great article. Here in Italy. there is a goverment that was not elected therefore a dictatorship.Now in Italy, from the European parlament, there is a directive to prohibit the make of cheese from real milk but from dehidrated polvirized milk produced from Germany. No if we continue this way you may not see real Italian products but german ingrediates. I am against the a European goverment because we are not talking about a finance dictatorship but a dictatorship that goes deep into the everyday life of Europeans especially the medeterrianian countries that have deep traditions in their way of life and foods. This is war in disgise, a new type of war. THANK YOU TONY, for this blog.

  30. joecthetruthteller says:

    FB, NFLX, UA all held up well during this correction and going strong……

  31. Found something interesting about gold…may be a key for the next 6 months.Someone was pushing a six month gold cycle which many people think is a low but actually can be a top.Most ARE bottoms..The last 6 month start was July 1st.Basically we should be rising in price unless its an inverted area.The best way to judge it is watching price action.This is something like full moon new moon analysis.I saw many good bottoms on July 1st but its possible if we break down that its a massive indication of the final bear move down to $1000.So I m not entrenched in a bullish spot but would love to see a move higher in the next few days.Good luck all.

  32. mike7x says:

    Thanks Tony. Looks like Greece may have to put ancient temples and other sites in a special EU fund for possible sale at a later date. They’re kinda run down though. Don’t know who might want to buy them. Maybe Donald Trump, to convert into a hotel? Assuming he isn’t our next president.

  33. My 2 cents. Earnings are going to suck. 1 percent growth 1st half of year doesn’t bode well. The Dollar will rally and the Greece issue isn’t over. Pick a wave, but everyone has now turned bullish with the belief Greece is behind us, it’s not. May hit 2111 but no higher. 2019 is next. Will see from there. Good luck

    • torehund says:

      Maybe the Greek prime minister is smarter than we think; who in their wildest of moments is willing to put up more loans to them. Isn’t that throwing good money after bad ? Is England or other heavily indebted European nations coughing up any Euros ?, sure its comfy that Greece doesn’t drift to the east, but why can’t “the others” finance that bankrupt sinkhole ? Well, money aren’t readily available until Greece is officially bankrupt, not even an undertaker would take on an angry Zombie, even if the burial was already payed for… Euro too is a sell on any timeframe, shrinking Euro-Zone debt all by itself.

      • stmro says:

        It’s one possibility. Maybe he’s accepting the deal with no intention of implementing the reforms. Give his people a chance to withdraw their savings and then default.

        • fionamargaret says:

          …here is an interesting take on Greece……

          • stmro says:

            Thanks – Market Oracle often has interesting viewpoints into global politics & economics. I’d find it easier to read if the author, who although clearly intelligent, wasn’t always so angry and anti-establishment.

            I actually find his SSE prognosis aligns very closely to mine. I’ve still got a short order at 4200, targeting just below 3000.

          • Tom Grainger says:

            Agree with you there stmro. Though Nadeem is very experienced, his bitter tone often makes his articles unreadable to me. It seems everyone who disagrees with him on the slightest matter is utter garbage. Shame, because he has a lot of good things to day. he just needs to moderate his opinions somewhat.

        • torehund says:

          hehe even a coward may end up doing the “right thing” if the trend is strong the person in charge is not important at all (if it wasn’t Hitler it would be someone else, Hitler is irrelevant). Thats how it is with the Greek prime-minister, and thats how it is with the Euro. Whatever happens in the physical world is irrelevant; only the path ALREADY dictated by nature 🙂
          Heavy thinking…

    • tommyboys says:

      Not everyone bullish…
      Perfect sentiment for the kickoff of a nice rally…

    • @tryingtomake. Disagree strongly and expecting earnings to surprise on the upside, also the Greece nonsense is over for now and its best to remove that leash that the media is leading you along by. Gl.

  34. Lots of patterns are getting pushed the past few days. From Chad Gassaway, best I can tell is that the past 3 days all gapped up more than .7%, and this is the first time in quite awhile that 3 such large gaps up have occurred consecutively without any of the three closing intraday.

    By awhile, I mean since at least November 2008, and there have been a bunch of smaller consecutive gaps up.

    I’m not positioned for a third wave up here, but yikes does three days of large unfilled gaps ever seem like what one could look like.

    I’m not entirely sold on the idea, but thanks Tony for this count because its the best bullish thing that makes sense that I can find.

    • Of these 3 gaps up I only see today’s gap at 2078.56 as unfilled, I’m I missing something here?

      • I’m looking at SPY. 24 cents, 5 cents, and $1.46 gaps unfilled on SPY the past three days. Chad tweeted a study showing a bunch of instances with big sequential .7 gaps, but of the past 4 going back to November 2008 I see three had the day #2 gaps filled intraday and the November 2008 pattern had day #1 and day #3 gaps filled intraday. Chad also was kind enough to look for sequential unfilled gaps, and there were a bunch especially in 2013 recently that weren’t filled intraday recently. This is his study on recent three days unfilled, and subsequent returns (my puts can barely stand to look at this!):

  35. The intent of this post is meant to convey wave form symmetry and resemblance and in no way should it be meant to criticize neither Tony’s past nor current OEW counts. Ok so here we go,

    During P1’s topping distribution process, the masses remained uber-bullish during the development of P1’s 2nd RS (WLEI 51.8%, Public bearishness 36.5%)

    And just like back then the masses remain uber-bullish during this potential development of P4’s 2nd RS (WLEI 51.2%, Investor bullishness 57.2%)

    The ATH noted on each chart this the Head of the Multi-HS trend reversal pattern. If you look to the left and then to the right of each chart, IMO, it is quite evident that the price charts did/are recording wave form symmetry. Additionally notice that the Head was record during the month of May and also notice that the 2nd RS is, well, recorded/ing during the start of earnings seasoning in July. Coincidence, maybe or maybe not, you be your own judge but you know were I stand.

  36. chicotheman says:

    Thanks Tony. I like your P3 into 2016 count now. It had been my alt to P4 in progress. These last several months have built the base to sustain the forecast. Always appreciate your conservative manner. You really stuck with that bullish primary during these murky months while many turned the other way.

  37. stmro says:

    We closed a big gap and are sitting on the 50ma. I expect more up, but opened a short here @2100.5 in anticipation of a partial retrace to around 2080. Manual stop if we close above 2100 tomorrow.

    • bhuggs52 says:

      That sounds like a solid play. You strike me as a sage sort, both in your geo-political outlook and your trade sense. Praise thee and good luck!

  38. torehund says:

    Thanks for pushing us right Tony.

    More than ever before its not just stock trading at stake, I hope it will turn right eventually, but there is this sneaky smell of a rat that could eat further into our freedom in the western world. Griffin airs out his concerns and makes this topic comprehensible.

  39. tradeanimal says:

    Thanks Tony on your response to my earlier question regards pivot points. Certainly something to ponder.

  40. bhuggs52 says:

    Thanks Tony. On a hunch the Greeks would be granted some relief, and coupled with your prognosis for a possible resumed uptrend, I went long last Friday, and at least caught this leg up today. It seemed a “sure bet”? Liquidated half the position at today’s close, in anticipation things might get as you suggest “choppy” tomorrow, Wed. I’ll wait for your confirmed uptrend and other indicators before throwing down to any serious degree again. Cheers brother.

  41. GYN LAB says:

    Thanks Mr T! You and your OEW are the best! ES 2040 long still untouched and going strong, this all down to your generous and objective daily analysis.

    • NEWBIE says:

      gyn, no taking of profit after a 60 point run up? WOW !

      • Gary Lewis says:

        Hey Newbie, share your passion for the downside and also have been adding puts. But I’ve got to have some calls as well as Tony has been pretty spot on with the move down to 2040. I had hoped it would go lower but pounced on some calls when it hit the 204 range on SPY. Tony predicted that wave three would run to 2500, that’s 400 points (SPX) ahead. If you look at how Greece is apparently going to turn out, how can you possibly bet big against the bankers? they day the market crashes, the whole system is going to crumble. There is just too much air under the market, as you astutely observe. But these guys will destroy you and me and everyone in the world before they let it all collapse. They are all leveraged to the hilt.

        I took a six month break from the action after betting big at the end of last year on the downside (and losing). But still, the market hasn’t yet cracked. Just don’t think it will happen for yet a long time to come. If ever…

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