Thursday update

SHORT TERM: gap up opening faded, DOW +33

Overnight the Asian markets gained 1.3%. Europe opened higher and gained 2.1%. US index futures were sharply higher overnight, and at 8:30 weekly Jobless claims were reported higher: 297k v 281k. The market gapped up at the open to SPX 2069, hit 2074 in the first few minutes, then started to pullback. The SPX had closed at 2047 yesterday. At 10am FED governor Brainard’s speech was released: The market continued to pullback until 10:30 when the SPX hit 2063. Then after a rally to SPX 2069 just after 11am, the market headed even lower. At 2:30 the SPX hit 2051, bounced to 2059 just past 3pm, then closed at 2051.

For the day the SPX/DOW gained 0.20%, and the NDX/NAZ gained 0.15%. Bonds lost 25 ticks, Crude rose $1.10, Gold added $2, and the USD was higher. Medium term support remains at the 2019 and 1973 pivots, with resistance at the 2070 and 2085 pivots. Tomorrow: Wholesale inventories at 10am, then a speech from FED chair Yellen at 12:30.

The market gapped up 20+ points at the open on rallies in both Asia and Europe. After hitting the OEW 2070 pivot range (2074) in the opening minutes, the market basically sold off for the rest of the day. Enthusiasm overnight, lack of interest during live trading. From yesterday’s SPX 2045 low we have a rally to 2074, then a small abc down to 2051. Should the SPX 2051 low hold, and the market make higher highs, we will have an opportunity for an impulse wave. If not, the correction continues into a possible triangular conclusion: 2044-2084-2045-2074-2046? Short term support is at SPX 2040 and the 2019 pivot, with resistance at the 2070 and 2085 pivots. Short term momentum swung above and then below neutral today. Best to your Friday trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend trying to get started

LONG TERM: bull market


About tony caldaro

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141 Responses to Thursday update

  1. The market couldn’t possibly crash 4 Sunday’s in a row … or could it?

  2. ..and THATS how Yellen keeps gold in the toilet.Threats of rate increases that may never happen.But if gold was bullish it d go up anyways.I think there s a good chance we test the 50d at about 2100.We ve done it every other time we had a selloff…why should this be any different?

  3. rc1269 says:

    On another note, if we’re following a similar playbook to Summer, 2011, we could/should expect an SPX bounce off the 200 MA to the 2125-2128 realm (ie, just shy of new ATH’s), before the bigger failure. In that case it may be that ever elusive P4, and would be around the mid-August timeframe

  4. rc1269 says:

    China collapse is the bigger story now, not Greece. The market value erosion there is multiples of Greece. And they buy real things, from the US, like lumber, metals… oh, and our real estate.

  5. I gotta tell ya, this weekly chart of TNA ($RUT) actually looks like it’s setting up for a big run up. An ‘almost’ re-tag of the broken downtrend channel (could setup for a lower low first to actually tag it next week?) and a weekly hammer candle. I honestly have no idea which way, but if I had to bet, it would be up.

  6. stephenk1980 says:

    Lousy price action so far. Could be correcting the future ramp up with time instead of price and gearing for another leg up, but I’d prefer to have seen a bull flag in that instance. Risk / reward ratio favours cashing in before the weekend now imo.

    • Price action is lousy because both yesterday’s and today’s rallies are corrective in wave form.

      • stephenk1980 says:

        That’s what you can see so far, but with time that can all change as we both know. So far it looks corrective, but I personally give it slightly less chance of it being corrective than impulsive. Expect 2104 gap fill minimum during this bounce, but my preference would have been for a stronger cash market so I’m not as certain as I would like to be. Having said that the 4hr chart doesn’t look bad.

      • NEWBIE says:

        El mat, when is this hog of a market gonna drop?

        • Newbie, remember my July 9, 2015 at 9:49 am with following chart
          this is the first critical trend reversal zone and we tagging it today. This is no doubt in my righteous mind that the rally is correct and that last low WILL be revisited. The $64K question is whether this rally is weather we are still in Minor c of Inter A or if this is Minor A of Inter B (If inter B then it will form the RS per my July 9, 2015 at 4:47 pm SPX (P3 Top??) chart ). Regardless we due for a swing trade per the zone indicated in the first chart mentioned above. If you zoom in on a 5 minute chart you can see a clear wedge has formed at the top hence a trend reversal is within striking distance. AAs soon as this reversal kick off I’ll have a better understand as to which way the chart is leaning and will keep everyone posted.

    • Dex T says:

      Agreed. This is easily a weekend that the futures can open down 30 points on Sunday

  7. Even though FTSE, CAC & Daffy DAX had strong rises today (1.4%, 2.9% & 3.1% respectively) they kept climbing after the European close for another 0.5%. FTSE stopped at a double top position. CAC stopped at a triple top level. These two are more bearish than bullish. DAX did better finally stalling at overhead resistance. This one is more bullish. INDU & SPX approaching levels where they’ve already been 5 or 6 times this week cash & AH. Momentum has stalled with all eyes (and ears) on the Athenian vote.

  8. Please stop with the Greece news

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