Tuesday update

SHORT TERM: turnaround Tuesday, DOW +93

Overnight the Asian markets ended mixed. Europe opened higher but lost 2.0%. US index futures were higher overnight, and at 8:30 the Trade deficit was reported larger: -$41.9bn v -$40.9bn. The market opened two points above yesterday’s SPX 2069 close, then immediately started to pullback. Just past 10am the SPX hit 2055. Then after a quick bounce to SPX 2060 the market hit 2046 just before 11am. The quick moves continued with a bounce to SPX 2054 by 11am, a dip to 2048 just past 11am, a bounce to 2053, and then a low at 2044 by 11:30. After that the market staged a good rally. By 1am the SPX had rallied to 2068, dipped to 2063, then hit the opening level at 2071 nearing 1:30. After a pullback to SPX 2063 by 2:30, the market rallied to 2084 by 3:30, then closed at 2081.

For the day the SPX/DOW were +0.55%, and the NDX/NAZ were +0.20%. Bonds gained 5 ticks, Crude added 45 cents, Gold slid $13, and the USD was higher. Medium term support rises to the 2070 and 2019 pivots, with resistance at the 2085 and 2131 pivots. Tomorrow: the FOMC minutes at 2pm.

The market opened slightly higher today, then declined in what appears to be a three wave pattern down to SPX 2044: 2046-2054-2044. This would effectively give the market 5 waves down from SPX 2079, and completes the Minute C zigzag from 2085. Not a perfect ending to a multi-week correction. But the correction does appear to be complete. At the low there were positive divergences on the SPX hourly/daily charts. From the SPX 2044 low the market rallied to the 2070 pivot, pulled back, then rallied to the 2085 pivot and pulled back again. If the low is indeed in, the market should start impulsing higher in an Intermediate wave iii uptrend. Today’s reversal would be a good kickoff to that uptrend. Short term support is now at the 2070 pivot and SPX 2044, with resistance at the 2085 and 2131 pivots. Short term momentum ended the day slightly overbought. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: downtrend

LONG TERM: bull market

CHARTS:  http://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

About tony caldaro

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210 Responses to Tuesday update

  1. stephenk1980 says:

    Capitulated. Looks like at least another 20pt drop from here.

    • wildmick says:

      if another 20pts down, then, I don’t understand “capitulated”? do you mean you, personally, or what? just asking…

  2. Increased bearish position upon Sell siignal at yesterday’s close, low not in yet, nice call nardo & bj who also weren’t fooled by yesterday’s intraday bounce. Wild day!

    • FRB, no point in sharing what you did behind closed doors. Just share your market view going forward, agree?

      • Not worth it Mat, gave several real-time calls that made a lot of money in hopes of helping those here who seem so uncertain of the market’s next move but lack of gratitude leads me to be content with just enriching my own account. GL to all, looking forward to your take on today’s action Tony!

        • uncle10 says:

          just saw this post, sort of answers my question. I appreciated your posts. I think if you just state what your signal call is and leave it at that you will get a better response.

          • Thanks uncle. I posted those real-time calls which, if heeded, would have made others here a lot of money as they did for me. Unfortunately, the nuts and/or dishonest people like nsteve, drew and stmro ruined it for the rest as I’m not about to reward those types. When I have time, I intend to set up a free password-protected blog for the good folks on this site.

        • nsteve24 says:

          awww, poor FRB, his feelings were hurt that no one appreciated him

    • uncle10 says:

      FRB, I liked that you stuck your neck out and made real time calls. The last few posts have been after the fact look what I did stuff. Why the change?

  3. tommyboys says:

    For all the hoopla the past few days/weeks the SP is STILL less than 4% off its ATH…what happens at 5-10% down?

    • are you familiar with rounding top pattern? how long do they take to complete and at what speed, eh? Also note that P2 for SPX was fast deep decline while for TRANS is was sideways grind down, note that now these two indices are in alternation. And you heard it here first TRANS will correct approx. 22-25% while SPX will correct about half of TRANS so around 10-13%. Just sit back relax and watch it be

    • Japan = massive haraKiri
      China = mass starvation
      EU mass riots
      US: mass robot population

    • wildmick says:

      it’s the end of the world I tell you!!!! hahahaha

  4. Jim Guthery says:

    anybody buying if we strike the 2040 area – going long that is!

  5. get ready folks, NYSE has re-programmed it’s algo bots ….ramp up coming real soon NYSE to re-open at 3:10 pm ET

  6. blackjak100 says:

    RSI(5) only at 34….a lot more downside to come in this wave iii…How many think the market falls more when NYSE opens in less than 5 min?

  7. H D says:

    what a hit, TD 34, SPX -34, SPX 2134, ES 2034, interpret as u see fit. Cheers

  8. This is how a wedge pattern looks and reacts like, its so beautiful

    NKD (Nikkei futures): http://tos.mx/t5nmjx

  9. GYN LAB says:

    .786 retrace at 2052-53 getting battered here, breaking below not a good sign…

  10. wildmick says:

    nyse still down huh? prices keep fluctuating like it’s on-line. would really like to buy a couple of things here.

  11. lolomatador says:

    Someone forgot to halt Nikkei futures current down a whopping 1050 Pts, the Japs are not going to wake up as happy campers

  12. arthurk says:

    Several key indicators are lining up in favor of a bottom at or just below TCs SPX 2019 pivot:
    1 – Leading sectors nearing 2% of 200 dma, IWM at 119, COMP at 4810
    2 – “3 drive” model some one mentioned, using May low, early June low, points to just below 2020
    3 – 38% retracement from Oct low 1820 to May high 2136 is -120 or 2016

  13. NEWBIE says:

    Who thinks we make lower low today?

  14. Okay. Let me get this straight…. A month ago China hacks our federal employee system and gets millions of apparently pretty serious private info. Insiders say it was a big deal.

    Less than a month later their stock market crashes out if the blue.

    Then today our market is experiencing ‘technical issues’ along with corporate websites such as a few airlines and Zerohedge.


    I just ask..

  15. Fantastic, eh,


  16. gtoptions says:

    NYSE down, no worries! The technicians are working on it. 😉

  17. uncle10 says:

    Thanks Tony.
    Maybe if Greece exits and it causes all sorts of problems, and china crashes another 30%, and the US exchanges are shut down by “software problems” just maybe the spx can get to 2000??

  18. reddragonleo says:

    Nardobeme and Mike, here’s the latest from that video taking about July 8th. http://www.profitabletrading.com/research/1/item/2117

    (No optin required).

    • fionamargaret says:

      ..”.anyone with information” are asked to contact Homeland Security – I would think a simple e-mail to your local cop-shop would do it too – get the glory reddragonleo.

      • reddragonleo says:

        Where did you see ”.anyone with information” on that sales page? I think the guy is talking about the FOMC meeting today but who knows for sure why he picked July 8th? I don’t see the Fed’s talking about raising rates in September with today’s minutes release, as they always want to be the hero after they create the problem.

        Rarely do we see the Fed’s say something at any FOMC meeting where the market tanks from that statement. Yellen and Bernanke think they are saviors of our economy and can’t see themselves as the villains. So the market usually rallies up afterwards and then it takes a couple of days for the next turn to happen… but they don’t think it’s their fault of course. Just something technical in the charts.

        As for “get the glory”… not sure I understand what you mean there? That Jared Levy guy in the video is the one with the hugely public face that can claim the glory when his call for a serious correction happens. For me I just want make a few beans off it to live to fight another day.

    • Gary Lewis says:

      The guy looks like Jordan Belfort’s brother! Immediate credibility! haha

  19. blackjak100 says:

    This Rory handyside is quite the statistical guy. Low in July rarely occurs in the middle of month. This supports a nasty wave iii down now followed by wave v to complete end of month before multi week rally



  20. blubrd67 says:

    Tony, now that we hit 2051, do you see more of a chance that we are not done with correction?

    “If the low is indeed in, the market should start impulsing higher in an Intermediate wave iii uptrend.”

  21. Gary Lewis says:

    No evidence of a cyberattack. Uh huh, like what would you expect them to say? It’s why I keep buying gold and silver coins. One day, everything is going to change, We gotta be prepared. Or at least try.

  22. …and now a mysterious halt in NYSE trading.Cashins downplaying a cyberattack event…but must be considered the way everythings getting hacked lately.Quite a day.

    • they are trying to prevent panic selling or realign their algos/bots to capitalize on potential market trend…..LOL

      • The PPT overloaded the system with buy orders.Quite a coincidence that Chinas markets are crashing at the same time this happens.Are WE involved with selling their markets as a punishment for hacking OMB and others?Farfetched…oh yeah but out of the question? Who knows.Diane Feinstein who is on the security committee says it doesn t look “normal”.Thats for sure.

        • uncle10 says:

          very well could be. Although when you get what you have in China with everyone trading stocks and a runaway market with no regard to “value” what happens is a blow off top and then a crash. so it could very well be the market doing what the market does.

    • tony caldaro says:

      China or N. Korea again?

      • Theory I just heard from a trader that a virus(probably a Confuscius virus)planted months ago to go off at 1132am just did its thing.These systems are hacked and not discovered and disclosed until months afterwards–if at all.By the way I made up the Confuscius name because its my guess of China.

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