Wednesday update

SHORT TERM: another gap up opening, DOW +138

Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.9%. Europe opened higher and gained 1.8%. US index futures were higher overnight, and at 8:15 the ADP was reported higher: 237k v 201k. At 9am FED governor Brainard’s speech was released: The market gapped up at the open to SPX 2075 and continued to 2083 by 10am. At 10am ISM manufacturing was reported higher: 53.5 v 52.8, as well as Construction spending: +0.8% v +2.2%. The market then went into pullback mode. Just before 11am the SPX hit 2073. Then after a bounce to SPX 2078 by 11:30, it dipped to 2070 by 1pm, bounced to 2075 just before 2pm, then dropped to 2069 by 2pm. After that it rallied into a SPX 2077 close.

For the day the SPX/DOW were +0.75%, and the NDX/NAZ were +0.65%. Bonds lost 24 ticks, Crude dropped $2.40, Gold slipped $4, and the USD was higher. Medium term support rises to the 2070 and 2019 pivots, with resistance at the 2085 and 2131 pivots. Tomorrow: at 8:30 monthly Payrolls (est. +249k) and weekly Jobless claims, then at 10am Factory orders.

The market gapped up at the open for the second day in a row, exceeding yesterday’s high on its way to SPX 2083. This broke a six day streak of lower highs and lows. Plus, this suggests the decline from SPX 2130 to 2056 was an a-b-c zigzag to complete Minute wave a. The rally off that low also looks like an a-b-c: 2074-2062-2083. This Minute wave b could have completed at today’s high, or can bounce around before Minute wave c gets underway. Still looking for downtrend support around SPX 2040, or the 2019 pivot. Short term support is at the 2070 pivot and SPX 2056, with resistance at the 2085 and 2131 pivots. Short term momentum hit overbought today, declined, and then headed higher into the close. Best to your pre-holiday trading!

MEDIUM TERM: downtrend continues

LONG TERM: bull market


About tony caldaro

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138 Responses to Wednesday update

  1. Too much bullish complacency, how do we know, well you can always tell when you’re speaking to one,

    • tony caldaro says:

      Another distraction, propaganda disinformation idea.
      If corporations ruled, why is every government in the world still fining them over and over again for the Crisis.

      • jjosey says:

        I don’t pretend to know any facts but the story and pattern is a compelling one. Enslavement is an old concept; while the old ways of enslaving are hard to effect, debt is a clever way of creating proud servants.

        Your question is a good one. But an equally good question is: why are corporations routinely fined for a pittance after making huge profits off a problem or crisis or theft?
        It could simply be a mechanism for legal transfer of funds between strangely cooperating entities …… all unplanned, but operating in an equally strange symbiosis.

  2. torehund says:

    Tony often replies “we are all in the same boat”.
    Could it be that we are so, also in terms of religion ? Why aren’t findings like this enlightened ? Could it be that “split and rule” is used NOT ONLY by the politicians. Is Jesus finally entering a real bull market after centuries of flatlining ?

    • tony caldaro says:

      Jesus accomplished his mission, and it is not as we have been taught.
      Those in power at the time, took his teachings, turned it into a religion, so that its followers could be more properly controlled. Every famous enlightened being, that has incarnated on this planet, has had his teachings perverted into a religion for purposes of control. Going off on a tangent for the ‘lost years’ or the ‘holy grail’ or the ‘arc of the covenant’ is just another ploy to perpetuate the myth that is the manmade religion.
      Jesus taught brotherly love, to love everyone like yourself. Even on the cross he said; “Forgive them father for they know not what they do.” Till death he was still teaching.
      In this day, or any day, can you find any Christian religion that practices that?

      • torehund says:

        But either religion now goes “bankrupt” or it turns upwards into “ONE”.

        • tony caldaro says:

          They will do whatever they can to survive.

        • torehund says:

          Just a wild thought Tony : If the “moon landing” later on has to be rewritten in the history books, why not rewrite the path of jesus too….Its always the man with the biggest gun that dictates both present and the past. It may change, its up to all of US.

          • tony caldaro says:

            Correct history is re-written all the time.
            Now don’t forget, Columbus discovered America😉

          • torehund says:

            Ha,ha nope Columbus has been in a Bear market for DECADES, it was MY ancestor Leiv Erikssson that DID it…at least latter to someone else. In this issue I stick to the comfortable truth🙂🙂 Happy 4th Tony.

          • tony caldaro says:

            Geez, thought Native Americans were here first
            The Christian Europeans just treated them like they treated everyone else that wasn’t in their political/religious sect. Pitiful what divides religions create.

      • jjosey says:

        From Joseph Campbell’s “Power of Myth”:

        “The difference between a priest and a shaman is that the priest is a functionary and a shaman is someone who has had an experience. In our tradition it is the monk who seeks the experience, while the priest is the one who has studied to serve the community. I had a friend who attended an international meeting of the Roman Catholic meditative orders, which was held in Bangkok. He told me that the Catholic monks had no problem understanding the Buddhist monks, but that it was the clergy of the two religions who were unable to understand each other.”

        • tony caldaro says:

          good point
          but who preaches to the masses, certainly not the monk

          • jjosey says:

            You have hit upon a (the?) key problem of the technologically constrained society. We have found our teachers and they are us!🙂 No easy way out of this mess.

          • tony caldaro says:

            there are plenty of qualified teachers out there
            people at time inquire, but do not follow their suggestions
            same result as going to a doctor, and then not taking the prescribed medication

  3. Walter Crane says:

    Short all the way, always a day or two early as most know, but this is obvious, its over gang.

  4. Dex T says:

    Greek govt members threatens to resign with a yes vote. Should be exciting either way

    Vote no and EU just boots Greece out?

    Vote Yes and the Govt resigns and new elections held?

  5. uncle10 says:

    Scared to be short and scared to be long this weekend. so flat it is for me.🙂
    Happy Independence Day weekend all and gl

    • Dex T says:

      I’m flat before holidays as well. never understood traders who held positions over the weekends like this. There is always time to get back in Sunday evening even with a gap up.

  6. soulsurfer says:

    So far 2072 is holding, baring any last minute sell-off; 1 step at the time.

  7. lunker1 says:

    SPY 207 on 4hr candles is where it’s at

  8. nardobeme says:

    Maintaining my long bias (at least at this writing, lol); also, picked up some $RUT calls at lows today. Going to go suck down some cabernet sauvignon, and celebrate my b-day in style. Thanks for the blog Tony, and your ongoing analysis. Have a great, festive weekend everyone.

  9. Happy Independence Day all,

  10. stmro says:

    Weaker than I expected. Am waiting to see if we get new lows or go to 2095 first.

    Not seeing any good entries at this level.

  11. Lee X says:

    Happy 4 th Tony and gang
    Heading to bloody Williamson County, hopefully the rain will hold off on Saturday.

  12. budfox9450 says:

    FishOnHook….Thanks for the Interest in my indicator.
    Given more thought, no wish to interfere, with the work
    OEW does. I am just a private guy, who wishes to remain
    private. Suggest, you stay with reading PUG, NATE,
    DANERIC, and OEW.

  13. student8888 says:

    Tony, can we count the move from 2056 to 2085 as 5 waves: 2056-2074-2062-2083-2069-2085? Or is it just 3 waves?

    • tony caldaro says:

      5 overlapping waves
      which makes it corrective

    • GYN LAB says:

      I thought this would go higher, but 2085 held firm and turned down. Only retraced just over .382, so this could still be a w4 rather than b-wave bounce. In any case now looking for a corrective pullback to short the final leg down (especially with R2K in such a bad shape, that one really looks like a w4)

  14. MarketWatch opens it’s fat mouth once again, just in time for small cap significant correction.

  15. soulsurfer says:

    The critical crossroads of two trend channels held price in check on Tuesday, but the next test is the 2072-2064 S/R area:

  16. torehund says:

    Yanis utters; Greece had to destroy the money printing devices for Drachma on the demand by EU- as they claimed and claims that the money union is “irreversible”. Well why don’t start using the Russian Rouble ?🙂

  17. 56rambler says:

    Thank you, Mr. Caldaro! Have a happy fourth of july!

  18. ABchart says:

    IMF says Greece needs extra €50bn in funds and debt relief

    I think we are already in minute C wave (high at 2085)

  19. wavediver says:

    Tony, what form did Primary-II take? It looks flat.

  20. Have a Happy 4th, enjoy the day off from trading tomorrow. I know this guy will.

  21. locanbbs says:

    Hello Tony and crew!
    SPX (and others) now breaking down in direction of 2040!
    Get on board!

  22. H D says:

    Nice pivots Tony, Have a safe 4th all. USA!

  23. fishonhook says:

    anyone have a good count or opinion on Gold. Today GDX is up while Gold is down and that can often mark a short term bottom

    • budfox9450 says:

      Opinion – to early to go long….

      • fishonhook says:


        I looked at your profile and noted the indicator you have developed. If you are ever interested in sharing this with us, I am sure a lot of us would be very interested in reading about it.

        • budfox9450 says:

          That’s an interesting suggestion. There was a time, I asked for a fee
          for the BoYu. But, that view changed in my mind/heart.
          I think, the main reason for not sharing it in a wide scope
          is – my concern that attempts would form to steal it.
          But – If I were to share the signals here, with no chart, etc.

          I could live with that….


          • budfox9450 says:

            Oh – I currently only apply the BoYu to the SSO and SDS. No gold, oil, etc

          • So is your signal saying up or down for today?

          • budfox9450 says:

            NewBie — This is not my site. Would rather, get approval
            from OEW. With that said. The SP500 BoYu, is on a sell signal
            from the May 20th, SP, high….Bud

          • fishonhook says:

            Sure sharing the signals would be interesting too. Lost of people here come here with signals from their secret sauces and never reveal anything more.
            What is the success rate of the signal. Anything over 60% with a loss management plan allows for a good chance of making money IMO. the higher the better. Most systems work until they dont or they fail do to a fundamental change in the markets or over-use or bots or etc.

    • mjtplayer says:

      Agree, I think GDX is making a short-term low, but I’m not going long. Just watching gold & GDX, no position, but hoping for a nice rally in GDX back to the $19 – $19.50 area so I can go short again.

    • alexhartley1 says:

      probably nothing wrong with the count here by T & P

  24. Thanks Tony,

    For your view on Nifty.



  25. ABchart says:

    Thanks Tony and all!


    Georges: merci🙂
    RC: thanks! I prefer your alternate theory.

  26. UUP is at 25.2…downtrend line from April is 25.3 or 25.4 at most.If that downtrend line repels the dollar, gold may make a move up–especially with DUST getting overbought.A breakout and I ll probably sell my GDX.
    Transports have a bear flag that if it breaks 8090 or so could go down to 7800.Maybe, as is being kicked around, Monday a big down day…with Greece voting no a 59% chance.Good luck all.

  27. hkloon says:

    so minor c = minor a, so potentially this can go down to 2020…. and after that up up and away….

  28. Troika/Greece punt!!!!

    EL MATADOR (@LoLo_MATADOR) says:
    June 24, 2015 at 7:46 pm
    Troika/Greece will punt into next weekend/week so we should see some more gap filling question is will we fill 2118.67 gap prior to filling the 2101.09 gap??? won’t matter either way this bull is going to have to bungee jump

  29. blackjak100 says:

    Anyone doubting the ED ending at 2130 to complete P3 like I suggested on Monday…yes it follows all the rules. Now we just need to see downside follow-thru beyond 2019 pivot to confirm this count.

    • purplember says:

      it could be end of P3 but for many of us non-experts, we’ve seen this market manipulated by FED for so long. how do we know if they won’t step in with QE 18 if it falls apart ?

      • manunidhi21 says:

        Welcome to Greenspan world..he will be remembered in history for the word “Credit”.

    • Yes, I am 100% in disagreement with the ED. And I got to say that Nate has an awkward EW methodology. I just cannot figure out his style and rarely do I see other EW’ers agrees with his squiggles. I have also notice that Nate changes his squiggles faster than I can count 1 2 3. Just saying.

    • manunidhi21 says:

      Thnx BJ..
      U may be right..also technically algos need to get the interinsc value of the time and price stamp of thr avg buying from P 1 and P2 levels..for all the hedges of buying at those levels they generaly needs minimum 15% correction to set the table right for a euphoria

      • purplember says:

        believe pug was on here last week thinking this could be the end of P5

        • zepfan123 says:

          His comments here a few days indicated he thought the top was in for now and we could eventually go as low as SPX 1400 this year.- I agree with the ‘top in is for now’ part.- Hard to say how low we could go right now with us still holding the high SPX 2000’s.

        • budfox9450 says:

          Also, Nate and Daneric….

  30. Tony: Thanks for explaining 1-2-3 vs a-b-c for me yesterday. As Michael Jackson might have said: 1-2-3, a-b-c that’s how easy the truth can be”.

  31. Emcucha:

    cmucha68 says:
    July 1, 2015 at 7:40 am
    want to know something about ABC and 123 ?? Look here:

    That is a very hip analogy to come up with on the spur of the moment.

  32. uncle10 says:

    Thanks Tony.

  33. Seem to be locked in on it Tony. Very nice. Thanks.

  34. Gary Lewis says:

    On the hourly chart, sure does look like we broke the neckline of a head and shoulders, Should that pattern play out, we will hit Tony’s 2019 target. Or so it appears.

  35. torehund says:

    Thanks for the update Tony.
    ..guess we are all too tired about Greece now, but to finalize my efforts, isn’t this a developed world generational fight concerning the available resources. But how the old can live off the youth even if you defeat them; well thats a good question that is still not answered.

    • tony caldaro says:

      Think it’s about a country that has been managed poorly

      • torehund says:

        Yes, thats what they later on will say about Norway. But when folks live high off the Hog, nobody wishes to see what goes on (selective neglect), its also contra-trendish to pinpoint societal madness, so no one volunteers to criticize as it will opposed and ridiculed. So are there really anybody specific to blame when all agreed towards creating the boom ?
        Its human nature to blame SOMEONE, and then trend leaders are to blame, not the masses that were just blind followers. Maybe just blame the one that point out the Emperor has no clothes, as he didn’t react earlier🙂

        • torehund says:

          To all women that wrongly may be offended by this article I have to say; its not women in themselves that are wrongdoers, its just that when women finally approach the honey jar there usually isn’t a whole lot left. Government corruption is accepted (this how we do and have done for a long time) etc. But as pointed out above we will all share the blame. Its just that feminism is the last ism to develop at the very end of an economical up cycle, and not like the article says “responsible”. Just a thought.

  36. GYN LAB says:

    Thanks Mr T as always for the report. Looking for gap fill at 2101 (also .618 retrace of 2130-2056) I am counting this current rally as Minute b of Minor C, with c of C to end this DT for the powerful int iii. Maybe tomorrow massive gap up with good jobs report then start Minute c over the weekend with No vote in Greece? We shall find out soon…

  37. stmro says:

    Gap fill coming up. Plan to short between 2095 and 2100. Close above 2105 and i’m out.

    • uncle10 says:

      so thats you, newbie and me all wanting to short 2095 to 2100. Prolly every other trader in the world also waiting/wanting to short 2100. As always it will be interesting to see what happens next. gl

  38. mike7x says:

    Thanks Tony. This market is just sliding around on Greece.

  39. sibyn says:

    SPX Short Term.
    Now I’m waiting for 2103


    • Hi sibyn, if your short team doesn’t mean tomorrow only (i.e, early next week possibly), do you tend result of the weekend referendum will push the market up? Thanks.

  40. fotis2 says:

    ThanksTony! At close confirm DB still long for gap target day 1 daily CCI close above -100.GL and trade safe.

  41. phil1247 says:

    do you mean the decline from 2134.72 …not from 2130… 2056 was a zig zag???

  42. mjtplayer says:

    Thanks Tony!

    Lost in all this Greek drama is the jobs report tomorrow…

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