Tuesday update

SHORT TERM: gap up opening then choppy, DOW +22

Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.7%. Europe opened lower and lost 1.5%. US index futures were higher overnight, and at 9am Case-Shiller was reported lower: 4.9% v 5.0%. The market gapped up at the open to SPX 2072, ticked up to 2074, and then started to pullback. The SPX had closed at 2058 yesterday. At 9:45 the Chicago PMI was reported higher: 49.4 v 46.2, then at 10am Consumer confidence was reported higher: 101.4 v 95.4. The pullback hit SPX 2062 just past 10am. Then the market bounced to SPX 2067 by 10:30, dropped to 2060 just before 11am, bounced to 2068 by 11:30, then hit 2056 by 12:30. After that the market rallied back to the high of the day at SPX 2074 just past 2pm. At 2pm FED vice chair Fischer’s speech was released: http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/fischer20150630a.htm. In the last hour of trading the SPX hit 2062, then bounced to close at 2063.

For the day the SPX/DOW were +0.20%, and the NDX/NAZ were +0.50%. Bonds lost 7 ticks, Crude rallied $1.00, Gold slid $7, and the USD was higher. Medium term support remains at the 2019 and 1973 pivots, with resistance at the 2070 and 2085 pivots. Tomorrow: the ADP at 8:15, then Construction spending, Auto sales, and ISM manufacturing at 10am.

The market gapped up at the open today, made its high for the day in the opening minutes, then declined to a new marginal low for the downtrend. Then it rallied back to the opening high before heading lower again in the last two hours of trading. Choppy day. We can now count seven small waves down to SPX 2056: 2095-2104-2082-2091-2057-2074-2056. This could be a 1-2-3, or an a-b-c. If a 1-2-3 the afternoon rally back to SPX 2074 would likely be the 4th wave, and the current decline the 5th. If an a-b-c the market should rally much higher than SPX 2074 before making lower lows. Short term support is at SPX 2040 and the 2019 pivot, with resistance at the 2070 and 2085 pivots. Short term momentum displayed a positive divergence at the SPX 2056 low, and pushed momentum to neutral during the rally. The growth sector was supporting the general market today. Best to your trading the Greek drama.

MEDIUM TERM: downtrend continues

LONG TERM: bull market

CHARTS: http://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

About tony caldaro

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115 Responses to Tuesday update

  1. Okay, numbers…
    Bullish if above 2094.93/2096.63 with Stop 2073.49
    Bearish continues if below 2060.68/2062.38 with Stop 2082.06
    In between is limbo; and boring… Numbers will change slightly at tomorrow’s open.


  2. GYN LAB says:

    Very short-term: this could be c of Minute b with: a = 2056-2083 & b = 2083-2068 which was almost .618 retrace. c (and Minute b) targets:
    c=a 2095 (about .500 retrace of Minute a 2130-2056)
    2101 (.618 of Minute a, also gap close) <- this should be an attractive target for Minute b


  3. EagleSeagle says:



  4. zepfan123 says:

    impossible to tell where we go into July and Aug with todays action. Not surprising..SPX 2070 is still at issue as a continuing support level..or a soon to be serious resistance level. Whatever happens I think that SPX 2130.82 May close will stay the ATH for awhile.- Right now i’d say the odds are we start widening the range and work our way lower soon. i’m not going to throw any big target numbers out there like SPX 1400..or even 1700 yet. Closing below SPX 2040 would be a good start getting us back to SPX 2000.


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