weekend update


The market started the week at SPX 2110. A gap up opening took the SPX to 2130 on Monday, the high for the week. Then the market pulled back every day, including Friday, to end the week at SPX 2102. For the week the SPX/DOW were -0.4%, the NDX/NAZ were -0.7%, and the DJ World index was +0.1%. Economics reports for the week were mostly positive. On the uptick: existing/new home sales, personal income/spending, FHFA prices, the PCE, consumer sentiment, the WLEI, and Q1 GDP improved. On the downtick: durable goods, plus weekly jobless claims rose. Next week’s reports will be highlighted by Payrolls, the Chicago PMI and ISM manufacturing. Best to your week!

LONG TERM: bull market

Despite Monday’s rally to within five points of the all time high, and nearly the first six months of 2015 in the books, the market is barely up 2% for the year. In fact, since the year started, the market has been down as much as 78 points, and up as much as 76 points. Not a whole lot going on so far this year.


In the meantime we continue to label this bull market as Cycle wave [1] of a new multi-decade Super cycle bull market. Cycle wave bull markets unfold in five primary waves. Primary waves I and II completed in the year 2011, and Primary wave III has been underway since then. When it does conclude, the market should experience its largest correction since 2011 for Primary IV. Then when that concludes Primary wave V should carry the market to all time new highs. Currently we are expecting the bull market to end in the year 2017. Expecting the targets posted on the weekly chart to be reached by 2016.

MEDIUM TERM: potential uptrend looks sloppy

After a leading diagonal uptrend high in mid-May at SPX 2135 the market declined in a series of three wave structures until it doubled bottom at 2072. Then the market rallied in what looks like a five wave structure into its recent high at SPX 2130. During this last rally the Nasdaq exceeded its all time high for the first time in 15 years. Since the SPX hit the recent high it has pulled back about 61.8% of the entire 2072-2130 rally. On the surface this all looks good for the beginning of a new uptrend. However, there are a few minor problems.


Our quantified approach to the shorter term charts are displaying mixed signals. The 5min and 10min charts are clearly displaying five waves up, then a 61.8% retracement. The 60min chart is only displaying three waves up, and then the recent pullback. Had the second pullback dropped a couple of points lower. Then all time frames would have been in sync, and we would feel a lot more confident that a new uptrend is underway. It has been this kind of market all year. Nevertheless, the five wave advance on the shorter timeframes is the first five wave advance since the early February uptrend.

The next thing that should occur, if a new uptrend is truly underway, is OEW confirmation of the uptrend. When this occurs we can make some projections as to how high the market could rise, before the next correction. So the market either breaks out to new highs, or resumes the downtrend with SPX 2040 and the 2019 pivot as support. Until the market drops below SPX 2089 we continue to lean toward a new uptrend. Medium term support is at the 2085 and 2070 pivots, with resistance at the 2131 and 2198 pivots.


As noted above the recent Monday-Monday SPX 2072-2130 rally was the first five wave structure since the early-February low at 1981. The advance was defined as follows: 2104-2089-2127-2109-2130. Had the second pullback dropped to about 2107 we could have quantified a five wave advance on all shorter timeframes. After the SPX 2130 high, the market pulled back to 2095 on Friday. After this near perfect 61.8% retracement (2094), the market had its first notable rally since the pullback began. The first few days of next week should determine what is next: new highs or SPX 2040.


Short term support is at SPX 2095 and the 2085 pivot, with resistance at SPX 2109 and the 2131 pivot. Short term momentum ended the week with a positive divergence.


The Asian market were quite mixed on the week for a net loss of 0.3%.

The European markets were all higher for a big net gain of 5.1%.

The Commodity equity group was also mixed for a new loss of 0.3%.

The DJ World index is trying to uptrend and gained 0.1%.


Bonds remain in a downtrend losing 1.4% on the week.

Crude remains in an uptrend but lost 0.1% on the week.

Gold is still in a downtrend and lost 2.2% on the week.

The USD is trying to uptrend and gained 1.4% on the week.


Monday: Pending home sales at 10am. Tuesday: Case-Shiller, Consumer confidence and the Chicago PMI. Wednesday: the ADP, ISM manufacturing, Construction spending, Auto sales. Thursday: Payrolls (est. +240k), weekly Jobless claims, and Factory orders. Friday: a national holiday. Best to your weekend and week!

CHARTS: http://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

About tony caldaro

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239 Responses to weekend update

  1. wavediver says:

    As long as volatility rises no further today, I’d like to see a 37-46 bounce next before more decline. I’m looking for at least Tony’s 2019 pivot now.

  2. Another great day, just took profits on half of my 2x bearish position, will keep the remaining full (1x) position with trailing stop to lock in the sizable gains. Those 1-day throwovers usually throw a lot of people off but they are golden opptys, what was a losing trade for a day ended up being one of my biggest winners to date, hope others joined me in playing my recent Sell signal postted here in real-time and before-the-move as usual… this is almost too easy.

    Unc you’re right, it’s all math, I think I stumbled onto what the computers base their trading on, hope they never change it up lol.

  3. zepfan123 says:

    Even one more day like this and SPX 2070 is going to look like the summit of Mt .Everest to a gut wearing nothing but cargo shorts and flip-flops.

  4. Dex T says:

    Congratulations to the EU for holding firm against the Greeks and not caving in to their incessant whining! It is hopefully the start of a long and painful but necessary process to get everything back in order.

    The Greeks need to spend less time having talks about financial aid and more time planning their exit from the EU and a return to the Drachma. There just isn’t any other way.

  5. uncle10 says:

    When you get the monthly, weekly, and daily charts all aligned it makes for a powerful set up. Like I have said before, I believe the markets are controlled by computers that buy and sell based only on Mathematics. Its great when the math all says up. Bad when it points down. Obviously its way to early to tell if this is just going to be a big correction( P4) or something more serious, but its been 6 plus years since the monthly, weekly, and daily all matched up and pointing down. Time to cut exposure to equities/ lower risk to the long side IMO. If trading, sellem high and cover low. 🙂
    Good luck all

  6. zepfan123 says:

    I’m surprised gold is only up 5 or 6 bucks today. Thought it would be up at least $20.- i think good old hard cash is sounding real good to most folks right about now.

  7. senrex says:

    DAX was down 3.5% today. We may have a ways to go on the downside — today. At -271 we’re still only down 1.5% on the DOW.

  8. My targets are 2054 then 2092 then 2016.

  9. JeffMilano says:

    All credit goes to newb. He warned us. Some listen and some did not. Today those that did were short from at least friday like BUD with his Bojo. Great job Newb

  10. Two trades I like right here—-

    TNA LONG for a quick couple buck trade….Sitting right on support… Stop $89


    And Silver 2x long ETF AGQ… Talk about a perfect bottom chart…Just bouncing along that $36.50 line ready to explode higher.


  11. Time to remove those impulse stickers off that rally from 2072.49 was impulsive since it never had a chance of being impulsive.

  12. lunker1 says:

    guys 3 posts a day so make them count

  13. Yes I will say it again….No ED/LD/Wedge…..Rounding Top says it all

  14. zepfan123 says:

    SPX back at 2070…COMP back to 5000 and the VIX is up over 25% today alone almost back up to 18.00. Seminal week or two ahead.- it’s possible Obama has seen the stock market at the highest level back at 2130.82 he’ll have for his administration if the U.S.,and all global markets cascade down for a couple of weeks here.
    We had a guy here last week posting who runs a subscription site called PUG that said he thought the SPX was headed back to 1400. I don’t see that yet..but if we break below SPX 2000..i’ll bet going back that May 2014 low of SPX 1820 isn’t out of the question.

  15. we are headed back to 2090-2105 and then bottom falls out on this market

    • zepfan123 says:

      I’ll be very surprised if we see SPX 2105 this week now. Too much across the board correcting in all key sectors and profit taking going on by the big boy insider funds who got in from 2009 and 2010 and have massive profits they don’t want to risk losing.

      • 7dayyss says:

        We should get some what of a bounce tomorrow. SPX outside BB and VIX way out. Has almost always came back in the next day, turn around Tuesday, or just a one day bounce? I think as HD says, works 100%, 60% of the time!

  16. blackjak100 says:

    If this is a third of a third down, I count it as 13th wave from 2030 which means we probably get to 17 before any meaningful bounce. In other words 2040ish. ED then has typical look to its end but not at all with its under-throw. Guessing P4 is underway.

  17. mjtplayer says:

    Reuters reporting that Greece will not make the bundled IMF debt payment due tomorrow.


  18. tommyboys says:

    Fear and bearishness rampant. We’re likely in the final leg down of the sideways correction we’ve been in since November. July could finally bust us up and out of here…time will tell.

  19. mjtplayer says:

    On Friday, Greek 2yr notes closed at a yield of 21.33%. Today, they closed at 34.46%, a move of 1,313bps higher in just 1 trading day. Imagine buying Greek debt last week on hopes of a deal? Wow…

  20. cmparis says:

    2085 pivot putting up a fight right now….

  21. zepfan123 says:

    Investor Carl Ichan gotta be dancing He sold all of his 1.4 million shares of NFLX last week for $682 that he bought a few years back for $58. Ka-ching. Already back to $640. Buy low ,sell high and walk away is still a good plan. To buy super high from a Carl Ichan and hope it goes even super high so you too can make some profit almost never works out.

    • You mean Carl’s son is doing all the dancing and saying “I told ya so Dad”. It was this son’s idea to buy nflx and it was his son who convince Carl to at least keep 1/2 of the original position when it was trading at lower $400, since Carl wanted to dump all of nflx back then.

      • zepfan123 says:

        Ok..i’ll take your word for it. But Ichan is still the guy that went from being a shrewd poker playing college kid to cover his expenses…to an amazing investor and deal maker worth over $20 Billion today.Self made.And no matter who you are..it’s probably a very bad idea to buy NFLX anywhere up here in the $600’s. Ichan really is a market genius, and when Forbes verifies you’re market career moves AND your net worth in the Billionaires club…you know you’ve made it.
        Anyway..I see tons of way overpriced stocks out there ready for some big haircuts.
        Just off the top of my head..PCLN,AZO and CMG would be great candidates for 20 to 30% haircuts over the next few months.
        Back to SPX 2070 watch. I’m betting we finally start trading and closing south of it soon.

  22. sibyn says:

    fourth attempt 2072 and down

  23. zepfan123 says:

    Well with the market back near the lows and the VIX near the HOD almost at 17.00.-I’d say the jury is still way out as to how this week plays out. Path to least resistance looks down to me.- If all the world markets keep getting shellacked all week…like the DAX down 350 today alone…the Dow and S&P could be well below that long term support level of SPX 2070 by Thursdays close.

  24. mjtplayer says:

    The Greek stock market might be closed, but the GREK ETF here in the US is trading, down 15% now and testing the critical $10 support area. This should come as no surprise…

    I can’t believe people were actually trading and buying this ETF, you have to be completely out of your mind. Greece is bankrupt, period. If you didn’t know that Greece would eventually default then you’re not paying attention to what’s going on. I’ve said many times before, if you want to buy Greece, wait for them to go bankrupt first. Who knows when that will happen, perhaps soon, but when it does wait to see where the Greek stocks wash-out. Until then, stay the hell away from Greek stocks.

    Buying Greek stocks is as stupid as buying SHLD, RSH or Puerto Rico bonds. These are bankrupt entities, period. RSH is already bankrupt, Puerto Rico will be soon, SHLD isn’t far behind. Why anyone would buy a stock or bond of a bankrupt entity is completely insane, might as well throw your cash in a campfire. In the years ahead, you can add the cities of Chicago and Baltimore to that list of bankrupt-to-be entities.

  25. IWM had a breakout at 126 so a test of that is almost obligatory.My last post of the day…going to watch the last hour and see what happens.Otherwise not real exciting.Silver rolling over, gold could as well..Good luck all.

  26. mjtplayer says:

    Now that we’ve had the initial drop, followed a pop on the dip buyers, where we go from here over the next 48 hours will be very interesting to watch. Can the bulls continue to hold-up the market into month/quarter-end window dressing tomorrow and in a holiday shortened weekend? Or will the bears squeeze-out the longs by running the stops under 2,070?

    Side note: we all know that corporate buybacks have fueled this market for the past couple years and especially YTD. Right now, over 60% of SPX companies are in the buyback “blackout period”, so corporate buybacks will be of little help for the bulls.

  27. lunker1 says:

    SPY up 1.0 = 10pts at 10am off cash low

  28. It looks as though the NYSE A-D line is going to test it’s March 10 support at 101.5 K. Let’s see if it can hold there.


  29. tradeanimal says:

    The 100 day MA (approx. $207.80) once again providing support…for now.

  30. blackjak100 says:

    Futures have recovered but not quite as much as I thought they would. ED is technically invalidated at 2072.5. I’ll wait to see what happens after the first few hours of trading to ponder a next move. GL and Cheers!

    • blackjak100 says:

      If the market breaks 2072, the ED could be seen as complete at 2130 not reaching the i-iii trendline which is unusual but not unheard of. An over-throw is just a guideline. It actually has the typical SHARP DECLINE after an ED completes. We would then have a lower high and lower low indicating a downtrend.

      • fishonhook says:

        From your post on Saturday chastizing another poster for suggesting the ED may be over .

        “blackjak100 says:
        June 27, 2015 at 6:35 pm
        I’m still amazed at some Elliotticians. He should be switching his primary and alt count for the SMP. In the Frost & Prechter book it clearly states…..

        A rising ending diagonal is usually followed by a SHARP DECLINE retracing at least back to the level where it began and typically much further.”

        • blackjak100 says:

          I believe he suggested it was over at 2135 not 2130 – big difference as there was a month of trading in between. I didn’t chastise anyone and said the ED couldn’t be over at 2135. This looks like another failed fifth just like 2011 before 20% correction.

  31. Uptrend scenario is toast.

  32. Where did everyone go??? Just getting interesting in the Asian markets.Europe about 2 3/4% to open.Guess I ll get some shuteye so I can see Maria screaming at 7 am…lol.

  33. fotis2 says:

    So far the sky has not fallen SP futures support Daily 200ma at exact 2054.50.Daily CCI turning upward watching for inside day setup.GL people interesting days ahead.

  34. Puerto rico says there broke cant pay 72 billion.

    • I thought you were kidding-but it s true.Well…we might as well join the group and admit we can t pay either…
      Anyways we didn t make it to slightly above 2134 like past patterns had done.Close but no tiparillo.I thought a nominal new high then another plunge.So we ll be below the 50d and until it doesn t work, I ll go with another 4 day max under before we rally above.If that changes I can discard it.Good luck all.

  35. I was wrong Thursday night to suggest a gap up Friday could run, but this selling is very consistent with post-seasonal-expiration patterns with the average of 55 down and only 15 up over three weeks the past few years. That’s just averages, so 2055 to 2125 would just be an average range.

    There are several other patterns coming into play here too, especially if you see a big down day like 30 or 40 to start the week. Its an NFP week. The most down in NFP weeks since mid-2012 has been 40, but even down itself is sorta rare. There have only been three such weeks down 30 or more since mid-2012, and two of those were in 2012.

    Bigger yet though is the Bradley dates 6/30 or 7/1. Below 2072 is a price extreme, and for the past 18 months buying extreme lows at Bradleys and selling extreme highs at Bradleys has basically worked everytime. I’m not sure which date would be the one to use, but either one at a low (presumably lower than tomorrow), and especially if below 2040 (the old C wave target) would be a huge buy for me.

    It would meet expectations for the post-seasonal-expiration pattern, and would likely present a great buying opportunity for the NFP week pattern and the Bradley pattern.

  36. Caldaro I see some new people on this board? love the entertainment. how you been? you following this pitcher he mets have. the kid can hit.

  37. fishonhook says:

    FRB got to call you buddy. You are calling both ends”

    “”Hd, it did rally Friday as suggested. Read the entirety of my comments, clearly stating that I held onto the remainder (2x) of my bearish position after having taken profits on the other half and the reload. I trade my indicator’s signals and anyone can clearly see that it has been on a sell and remains so. To each his own, hope you’re making money.””

    It did not rally on Friday. A few S and P points, on options which you say you hold, does not even cover the spread or commission.

    So you say it is going to rally and then hold your puts??

    So if it goes up, you say see, I told you it would rally, and if it drops you say I have my puts.
    Sorry buddy, no cigar.

    • Fish, had it reached 18,100 area again it would have sold off again and I would have bought back the same (in-the-money this time) puts I had just taken profits on. I don’t think you understand how to trade my indicator. By rally I meant up day, I think you took it to mean the same as a buy signal, very different creatures.

      Your comment is incongruous – by clearly stating that I was keeping the remainder (2x) of my bearish position – all of which was accumulated per my real-time posts here – there’s no way I could have had it both ways. My comments clearly state that I expected the market to bounce/rally Friday or Monday but that I was holding onto my bearish position, not sure what’s unclear about that.

      At the end of the day I guess all that matters is the profits in one’s brokerage account, hope you have lots.

  38. So far it LOOKS like one of those futures crashes.Ten year down from 2.48 to 2.30 at the low…now moving up slightly to 2.32..Gold up $13 now up $11.Dow down 300+, now down 250.Is THAT it? If so Tuesday may be turnaround again.

    • fishonhook says:

      “Late June/Early July – It is expected that this is when the U.S. Supreme Court will reveal their gay marriage decision. Most believe that the court will rule that gay marriage is a constitutional right in all 50 states. There are some that believe that this will be a major turning point for our nation”


  39. Steve Forbes once said, “You make more money selling advice than following it. It’s one of the things we count on in the magazine business — along with the short memory of our readers.”

    And frb is no different (except much poorer and living in parent’s basement). Fast becoming the worst kind of troll. And some rubes are falling for it (or family have decided to help out to get him the hell out of the basement 😉 ).

    Wow, hey, my system had me neutral and out on Friday (except for strangle)! Woo hoo, look at me, and, for the low price of $19.99/month, I will share the signals with you too! Pffffffttttt…

    • Drew, most everyone here is rational and can read, so they know that almost all of your past posts have ended up getting stopped out for a loss whereas mine have all made money but one so far this year. If you were intellectually honest you would do a quick search and see for yourself. Best wishes and best of luck, you clearly need it lol.

    • torehund says:

      ..the last ones shall at one time be first ones, straight from the Bible 🙂

      • Hi Tore, I’m just having fun with them.

        Love the fact that you quoted the Bible. What that passage refers to is that all believers are equal and share the reward of heaven / eternal life equally despite when / for how long they have been a part of the Kingdom. Something each one of us would be wise to make sure we are on the right side of.

        • torehund says:

          ..the basment herd too 🙂
          Having a bit of fun in-between when writing, makes us all survive better at least emotionally. There has been a very good companionship in here between bulls and bears the last months. We are treating each other nicely, kudos to all 🙂

          • Agreed Tore, well said.

            Trading and making money is a lot of fun but when I see the suffering of those around the world it puts things in perspective. Money itself isn’t what’s most important, it’s how one uses money to help others that counts imho.

          • torehund says:

            Yes hopefully it sinks in as Tony says it, we are all in the same boat. Past is past, lets start anew, if we all change our attitude toward one-another, we all benefit. Soros Reflexivity works.

  40. stmro says:

    “The data suggest that my indicator foreknows and may even determine the immediate future direction on the market. If it knew the market would drop on Monday, it HAD to close higher (couldn’t close lower) on Friday. Never ceases to amaze me.”

    You have a 95% success rate, you average up when you’re wrong and now you’re starting a blog that you’re going to ‘try’ to keep free.

    I’m going to come right out and say it.

    Call me whatever names you want. You’re running a scam.

    • Hahahahahahaha
      That’s me laughing all the way to the bank lol

      Stmro, you just showed that you’re not dealing with a full deck, I have almost never needed to average-in (three times, see past posts, go ahead, it won’t hurt) because as the vast majority of clear-minded people here have seen my signals usually nail the absolute tops/bottoms/turns. In those rare instances of a one-day throwover, it has ALWAYS then kicked in big-time. Just see the past two weeks for a good example.

      I would do for free but my time is extremely valuable so would likely not be worth the expenditure of time without some very due remuneration. If you were smart you’d know to look out for the FREE prediction sites (Tony charges for his tutoring so he is clearly exempted/legitimate/awesome. Not sure I can be of further help to you so will simply wish you the best!

  41. Everyone see my post of 6:55 p.m. below. I think it may be time to start my own blog as so many (here and elsewhere) have requested. Will likely keep it free at least for a while, or maybe on a donation-as-benefitted basis, but will be password-protected so the intellectually dishonest few like chris, drew, stmro and hasntlearnedhislesson can’t benefit lol. Post a reply here if the rest of you are interested, if enough are I’ll look into getting it set up.

    Should be another very profitable day tomorrow. GL!

    • Page says:

      No thanks. Tony’s blog is top rated where we get lots of good info.
      GL with your blog.

      • Thanks for the feedback Page. Other than a correct one-day call two weeks ago, I have used you as a great contrary indicator the past several months, please keep posting.

        I’ll mark you, drew and stmro as definite maybes lol

      • Good example Page: just yesterday in your 7:52 a.m. comment below you say that you are “expecting a nice rally this week”. Like I said, great contrary indicator. You seem like a nice person but it never ceases to amaze me that someone who is wrong so consistently wouldn’t look for a better way. I guess that’s what makes a market, as profits aren’r created, only transferred from one person’s account (those who predict wrongly) to another’s (those who predict correctly). I wish you the best.

        • H D says:

          dude, start a blog. Find some like minded friends that you want to share ideas with and enjoy your 100K trades. Don’t stink up Tony’s place though. I actually hadn’t seen any of your calls so I did look and found your last comment from Thursday ” expect market to rally starting tomorrow or Monday, possible major Buy signal at tomorrow’s close.” I think you have potential kid. If you can spin a 40 handle drop as your rally call you can find a bunch of suckers to pay for a blog.

          • Hd, it did rally Friday as suggested. Read the entirety of my comments, clearly stating that I held onto the remainder (2x) of my bearish position after having taken profits on the other half and the reload. I trade my indicator’s signals and anyone can clearly see that it has been on a sell and remains so. To each his own, hope you’re making money.

            Many have stated here that they benefit greatly from my real-time, before-the-fact, presciently predictive posts – amazing how different people can see the exact same thing with such opposite conclusions but that’s exactly what makes a market thank goodness, would be impossible for those who are right to make money were it not for those who are wrong, I wish everyone could make money but that’s just not the nature of the market, it’s a zero-sum game. Good luck HD, I enjoy your posts.

    • uncle10 says:

      Hey FRB. If you start a blog I think you should name it “Catch The Moves” (CTM). 😉

      • Unc, I’m still a little offended that you ascribe my sense of style to another lol. Who is this CTM of whom you speak? Does he have a website where I can read his work? Is he as good and does he make as much money as I do? Hehehe

        • uncle10 says:

          haha. don’t be offended. He was a good guy and I liked him. 🙂
          I don’t think he has a site any longer? He came to Tony’s blog a few years ago and had a system that he claimed was 95% accurate. His style was very similar to yours and his system/signals seem similar to yours. As far as being as good as yours or make as much as you that I don’t know. I haven’t kept up with your calls until recently-seems like maybe the last 4 or so calls, and from my count/memory you are about 50/50 on them ( I know you claim much better than that but that is my recollection). As far as making money, One thing I know is that it is one thing to call the market and its moves its another thing all together actually making money on those calls ( over the longer term).
          You sure your not him? 😉

    • lbspytrader says:

      I am still interested in your signal service.


  42. I remeber, during the Asian crisis in 1998, futures would be as much as 45 points down overnight (which was huge!), and recover entirely by the open. One should be very prudent here.

    • budfox9450 says:

      In that case, suggest you watch the DAX index for your
      confirmation. China still has just under 2 hours to open.

  43. you bulls are in total denial, green by morning, lol you guys crack me up. Denial is not a river in Egypt. But heres to your wishful thinking.

    • Page says:

      Seriously markets will open green or 1, 2 points lower.

    • tommyboys says:

      Who’s in denial – OMG if that ain’t the pot calling the kettle black! Years of denial for Newb, Prechter, Dent etc…😓

      • tommy, I have been bear for a while but Im solvent, I trade both ways. getting emotional is not gonna help you, sorry.

        • tommyboys says:

          Not emotional in the least new dude. Start listening to the seasoned players here and you’ll do much better than “solvent”…insanity

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