Friday update

SHORT TERM: pullback continues, DOW +60

Overnight the Asian markets lost 0.8%. Europe opened lower but finished mixed. US index futures were higher overnight, and the market opened three points above yesterday’s SPX 2102 close. In the opening minutes the market pulled back to SPX 2100, then rallied to 2108 by 10am. Also at 10am Consumer sentiment was reported higher: 96.1 v 94.6. The market then started to pullback. At 1:30 the SPX hit 2095, then tried to rally. Around 3pm the SPX hit 2104, then pulled back to close at 2102.

For the day the SPX/DOW were mixed, and the NDX/NAZ were -0.65%. Bonds lost 18 ticks, Crude slipped 10 cents, Gold added $2, and the USD was higher. Medium term support remains at the 2085 and 2070 pivots, with resistance at the 2131 and 2198 pivots. Today the WLEI was reported higher: 51.2% v  51.0%.

The market opened a bit higher today, dropped to SPX 2100, rallied to 2108, then dropped to 2095 in the afternoon. After that the market had its first notable rally since the recent SPX 2130-2095 decline began. SPX 2095 is a near perfect 61.8% of the recent 2072-2130 rally. Monday should be interesting. Short term support is at SPX 2095 and the 2085 pivot, with resistance at SPX 2109 and the 2131 pivot. Short term momentum continues to display a positive divergence. Best to your weekend!

MEDIUM TERM: potential uptrend remains sloppy

LONG TERM: bull market


About tony caldaro

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28 Responses to Friday update

  1. Well another HO HO HO (3 of them so far at least).A lot of the new lows are trust funds and some bond funds.If interest rates rise, seems like we d be in perpetual Hindenburg status.Maybe thats enough to trigger another 3-5% correction…ORRRRR, kicking the can til July 5th allows for a rally.Let me get my coin out again.
    Tails its a rally.

  2. torehund says:

    Thanks Tony.
    Looks like Shanghai is working on a d-wave to encompass c 1, c 2, and c 3 ( e-wave) of equal length for a retest of all time high. I think the crude has to pay for it or is flight from Euro to chinese currency and market enough in itself ? Chinese loves cheap Crude, as do Uncle Sam, even to such an extent as to give Iranians nuclear power and free oil-export.
    Good weekend to all on board.

  3. tomasso60 says:

    its a strange thing that everyone calls for austerity to be placed upon governments and ultimately the people of the country in question (greece, ireland, portugal etc)- bring them all back in line with proper fiscal management and cuts everywhere in their overall economies, but, we bail out corporations left right and center along with the major banks that cause the majority of problems we face today.
    within a true free market society, let them fail and the strong will come in and reset.
    do not use the taxpayer to cover the mistakes and greed of corporations and the ilk.
    somewhere along the line, the piper does get paid.
    my 2 drachma worth

    • ariez5 says:


    • torehund says:

      Greek population have to understand that they are all in the same “boat”. At top of bubbles folks become ego-centrical, greedy corrupt and outright evil, during a downturn this mentality has to wane and a new flower of compassion and trust has to emerge. They have come further than any of the other European countries, but bottoms are elusive.

    • Agree, privatize the profits and socialize the losses when it comes to the big banks.

    • fionamargaret says:

      well-worded tomasso – beware of others looking after your interests…..

      Thanks Tony. Good weekend everyone.

    • fishonhook says:


  4. lolomatador says:

    Don’t forget to buy your front roll seat tickets to the show

  5. I was just cashing in my chips this morning on the TNA short I had from Tue and it dawned on me how much money I made anyone here who’s followed my few trade advices from ERX back at $48ish to $68 in a month (of course not the whole thing) and my various tip offs to turning points in the SPX and TNA.

    You don’t need EW. You just need to understand what it is you’re looking at when you look at a chart.
    Over 80% by my estimation of your total profits will come from how you manage your trades, not if you win or lose. Money management will turn losers into winners. If you can make 2x more on a winner than a loser and only be right 50% of the time, well, do the math. Make $2 on 50 trade and lose $1 on the other 50 trades out of 100 and what’s the outcome? You make $100 on 50 and lose $50 on the other netting you a $50 profit on basically an even outcome.

    Wonder why so many lose money trading?

    Can EW help you get that 2x win on the winning trades? That’s why I follow it in the background, yet not rely on it. Well, I’m up in the first 6 months of this year almost 42% on my total account. I have personally quadrupled my account in the last 4 years using simple money management. The only thing you can control in trading is your risk. EW will help time those risks. But that’s it.

    And remember from the other day… DON’T FIGHT THE KISS OF DEATH!

    • Great advice. Thanks

    • fotis2 says:

      Agree with most of above would like to add:
      (1)Trade with an objective rule based system the simpler the better something that YOU can backtest years back thru bull,bear and sideways markets even a simple single moving average will make you money.
      (2)Focus on 1 or 2 instruments, forget about trading the world and unless you know what you doing dont even look at the news concentrate on chart, price and your favourite indicator only.
      (3)Start with sufficient capital and play small so you can outlast the learning curve.
      In your trading journey you will come across many,many self-proclaimed gurus, trading sites and blogs who claim the latest,best super duper system guranteed to make you easy pocketfulls of money.Stop-Think.. IF what they claim is true why do they want to share it with a complete stranger on the net?GL.

  6. Thanks TC; looking forward to the weekend report.

    Numbers… System in Neutral position (Aug Strangle remains open)
    Buy above 2123.63 with Stop 2101.91 and Target 2217.57
    Sell below 2088.92 with Stop 2110.58 and Target 1998.24
    Good weekend all

  7. sibyn says:

    Rumours raging through #Greece that PM Tsipras about to announce in or out of Euro referendum for next Sunday 5th July. Blimey.

  8. lunker1 says:

    A 2108=22
    B 2116=8
    C 2095 =21
    2X +D 60m RSI5

  9. bhuggs52 says:

    Thanks Tony. A significant Monday indeed. A short-term resolution on Greece over the weekend could help bump the market into a wave iii. Or capture of both escaped cons in NY?

Comments are closed.