Thursday update

SHORT TERM: gap up opening retraced, DOW -76

Overnight the Asian markets lost 0.4%. Europe opened lower and lost 0.2%. US index futures were higher overnight. At 8:30 weekly Jobless claims were reported higher: 271k v 267k, the PCE was reported higher: +0.1% v +0.1%, and Personal income (+0.5% v +0.4%)/ spending (+0.9% v 0.0%) was reported higher. The market gapped up at the open to SPX 2115, then immediately began to pullback. The market had closed at SPX 2109 yesterday. Also at 9:30 FED governor Powell’s speech was released: After a pullback to SPX 2108 in the opening minutes the market rallied to 2116 just past 11am. Then the market started to pullback again. At 2:30 the SPX hit 2102, then tried to rally. By 3pm the SPX hit 2107, but pulled back to close at 2102.

For the day the SPX/DOW were -0.35%, and the NDX/NAZ were -0.20%. Bonds lost 8 ticks, Crude slid 65 cents, Gold dipped $1, and the USD was lower. Medium term support remains at the 2085 and 2070 pivots, with resistance at the 2131 and 2198 pivots. Tomorrow: Consumer sentiment at 10am.

The market gapped up at the open for the second time this week, but immediately reversed the rally and closed the gap. Then after a rally back near the opening level the market declined to SPX 2102. This is the third straight day of a lower daily high/low since Monday’s SPX 2130 high. Also with today’s decline below SPX 2104 the entire rally from SPX 2072 is starting to look sloppy. This may still be a new uptrend, but the hourly pattern is now out of sync with lesser timeframes. Short term support remains at the 2085 and 2070 pivots, with resistance at SPX 2109 and the 2131 pivots. Short term momentum is now displaying a positive divergence at today’s lows. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: potential uptrend getting sloppy

LONG TERM: bull market


About tony caldaro

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138 Responses to Thursday update

  1. zepfan123 says:

    Well i see several holes in the boat. Lets see if they are fixed on Monday. Or not.

  2. blackjak100 says:

    final rally for P3 appears to be underway!!!!! IMO of course.

  3. Regarding Greece, I believe either Germany gives in or they default. Broke is broke. Whats there to negotiate if your Greece. Take my offer or 30 cents on the dollar. Monday should be interesting

  4. zepfan123 says:

    Dow being a bit deceiving here up 40 to 50 pts …thanks to mostly NIKE’s big rally off earnings and a little propped up by 3 other Dow stocks MMM,MD and UNH.- But the S&P,COMP,RUT are all quite weak and the SOX index is extremely weak here. I don’t see much here to get bullish about going into next week but I’ll have to see how Monday starts of the usually bullish and shortened 4th of July week before I get confident about calling a move to SPX 2070 or lower.- Dow 18,000 and SPX 2100 are going to be important to both short term swing trading bulls and bears alike for a long time here.- I’m still in the camp this market breaks below SPX 2070 before it breaks out up over the ATH close of 2130.82…but I won’t do any more index shorts until I see where we close on Monday July 6th.- And billionaire Carl Ichan must feel pretty good so far selling his last 1.4 million shares this week of NFLX for $682 that he originally got for $58 a few years back. Already dropped 5% from there. It ‘s moves like that that got him from a broke but shrews poker playing college kid trying to pay his tuition… to having a net worth of over $20 Billion.

  5. nardobeme says:

    Bid triggered at 2097. We’ll see if it holds… Also picked up some calls on $FB after selling remaining puts earlier at 87. The stock is on fire… lol.

  6. camper1888 says:

    What will happen to USD and gold if greek exit ? Any ideas? Thanks

  7. H D says:

    $SPX, pretty close to 34 handle hit, .618 back, 2094 level.

  8. 247 … a smaller version of a 747? No. Just the US Treasury 10 year yield.

  9. LAST CHANCE 2090 -2085 coming

  10. mjtplayer says:

    Covering my GDX short here in the low $18’s; I went short months ago in the $19.90’s. It can certainly go lower, but GDX is oversold and coming into technical resistance from the “higher lows” TL – which I have as the bottom of a triangle.

    If GDX holds here, then a possible “D” wave with “E” wave higher in the coming weeks/months to complete the triangle. Looking to re-short GDX if it can rally into the $19.50 – $20 area.

  11. Dex T says:

    Interesting news I read yesterday. it seems like the Chinese are trying to force the West’s hand over the easy money printing policies. Maybe the Goldbugs will turn out to be right all along?

    “The most interesting thing that will occur from this gold pricing policy is how London and the Comex will deal with the metal should China suddenly set the price far above the current paper spot. If the West still has alot of physical gold in their reserves, they can make a large amount of money arbitraging their buy price with China’s sell price. However, it appears for the most part that the amount of gold remaining in London and Comex vaults is limited, and they will be unable to stop the Far Eastern market from determining the physical price should they decide to raise it to much higher levels.”

  12. fotis2 says:

    Possible 3bar reversal in the making on hourly close above 2108 target 2116 day trade.

    • we have a potential IHS on 10 min chart vs the bearish potential triangle wave 8 ….. very sneaky greecey tape.

      • fotis2 says:

        Tricky market for sure have to be patient and wait for strong confirmation on setups may miss a few pips but much better than just thowing money away think someone posted Small Positions -Wide Stops = good advice.

  13. nardobeme says:

    Buy signal close, but no cigar. Perhaps a move to 2090 coming up?

  14. blackjak100 says:

    IMO, the c wave of expand flat would look best with one more lower low which should show good +div. looks like 7 waves now completing the 8th wave with AM pop.

  15. The weak action of the utilities sector is suggesting that the rise in 10 year rates is for real and will not reverse itself in a short to medium time frame. I have to think that the market’s realization of that condition is what is creating a substantial portion of the resistance the market has to becoming impulsive, strengthening the NYSE and NASDAQ A-D lines, and moving the price indexes to new highs.

    Link to a chart of the DJ Utility Index:$UTIL

  16. Tony,

    Can we say now Nifty confirm uptrend??

  17. Here comes the big one! We gonna smash through 2100 like a knife thru butter

  18. 2101.09 Gap filled…..bulls should make attempt to fill the 2118.67 gap from around here.

  19. With all due respect….I read this site daily like many others, but I find it difficult to see the spx moving much higher without a very long consolidation to move through the upper channel trend line of this 10 yr weekly chart. Make me a believer….

  20. gasman88 says:

    Shanghai down 7%, China bubble popped?

  21. blackjak100 says:

    Got the 4th HO signal in the last 2 weeks yesterday. They remain on the clock for 4 months I believe. One of these days…like Aug/Sept, it might actually mean something! GL and Cheers!

    • I think it’s valid for 30 days

      • blackjak100 says:

        I checked on it because I was not 100% certain. You need to see at least 2 signals within 30 days and market currently has 4. There is no criteria, but all corrections/crashes happened within 4 months of confirmed signals.

  22. joecthetruthteller says:

    jjjzzzwww, Bernake NEVER did a good job in the first place!

  23. Great day today and yesterday, last week’s trade now firmly profitable, what a difference a week and a little patience and justified confidence makes, hope many here profited with me.

    Posted here at 6:40 a.m. that I expected rally to be sold and lower lows ahead. Bam!!

    Took profits on half of my 4x bearish position, holding onto other half very loosely, moved stop loss down to lock in profits, expect market to rally starting tomorrow or Monday, possible major Buy signal at tomorrow’s close. As I watch the NBA draft, all I can say is I love THIS game. Easy money.

    • student8888 says:

      frb, congrats. I also profitted going short on ur signal. Will u post a buy signal before market close if ur systems gives u one? Thx, keep doing good work and helping us novice traders.

      • Hey student, thanks, my pleasure, glad I wasn’t the only one to make money on this signal/trade. It never ceases to amaze me how much money one can make simply by pushing a few buttons lol.

        Will post new comment on Friday or Saturday report. I try to post my signals and trades before the close but not always possible, in which case I’ll post in the evening. If I start a subscription service, I will always post before the close so my members can get in with me. Have a great weekend!

    • joecthetruthteller says:

      frb, please let us know how well your shorts did……..

    • scottycj1 says:

      I have something to share with you. Email me at

  24. fishonhook says:

    Markets do better under Democratic Prez. It’s fact period.

    Many theories why. Looser spending , though in recent years the Repubs have been huge spenders too. Repubs spend on arms and military where as Democrats spend more on social.

    Maybe it is because Democrats are more progressive, forward looking and inclusive where as…remember Bob Dole “I am a bridge to the past”. Countries do better when young, intelligent , highly educated, dynamic leaders are at the helm like Kennedy and Clinton and Obama rather than… well we will just leave it there.

    • fishonhook says:

      Though it is true Obama and all presidents have limited power. Where does the real power lay?

      Larry Fink. His Blackrock manages almost 5 Trillion $. that’s a T .
      Carlyle group. See how many politicians have ended up working for this company which makes money from Government contracts . Google it.
      And of course Goldman which has alumni in almost every government who still own stock and often return. Explains how it can break the law , pay some fines and move on to make more money. Could you do that?

      • Obama just happened be at the right place at the right time. He took over less than 2 months after the market made fresh 18 month lows and put in a bottom. I don’t think he can take credit for that. Paulson/Geithner and Bernanke (and all the gangsterbanksters) laid the ground work for QE before the early March bottom.

        • tommyboys says:

          This is true. No president can take credit or get blamed for a great or poor exonomy during their term. It all depends on when during the business cycle they take office. They ride the tide like the rest of us. This doesn’t mean their policies don’t affect the economy later – just not typically dueing their term as most policies take several years to play out. Reagan, Clinton & Obama got upswinging cycles. The Bushes – not so much😂!

        • Sometimes I wonder whether presidents are elected or installed. I wonder whether the news we are habituated to read and discuss and consume subconsciously has been created for someones’ benefit. I wonder which Gulag has consumed all the free news reporters. It took one Snowden from an entire nation to give us the truth. What were all the rest doing? it was a very low probability event but it happened. I wonder what “is what it is” and what “isn’t what it is”. I wonder. 🙂

    • joecthetruthteller says:

      Fish, JFK was our last true President – all of them since then have been simply puppets.

      • zepfan123 says:

        I’d probably have to say it was farther back than JFK. But since I’ve been alive.. iJimmy Carter was my least favorite prez..and Ronnie Reagan was my fave.although I did like Bubba Clinton on and off there in the 90’s. But the real money guys in the banking system and the true wealth creator self made billionaires that really do provide the economic thrust do not want any super smart guys…or gals maybe now in the White House.

  25. The bookies aren t going to be WRONG are they???? Lol.

  26. sibyn says:

    SPX–> 2019-20140?
    “If Grexit happens it will be because the creditors, or at least the IMF, wanted it to happen”

    Regards Sibyn

  27. The rounding top symmetry continues and has been very success for swing/day trading for me

    Form -> Structure -> Pattern -> Charting -> EW -> TIs -> execute the trade -> rinse and repeat.

  28. nardobeme says:

    Sold this mornings gap up, and remain short with no buy signals. I gather there is unfinished business below. I see a nice rounded “top” on the 1 hr. Sold half of my $fb puts and will hold the remaining for a week. My target is 87-86. $aapl still looks weak to me. Opa!

  29. blackjak100 says:

    I’ve thought for a long long time the stock market would crash before Obama left office…now he’s taking credit for it which makes me think it will bite him in the @ss even more before his term ends!

    • This guy is getting more pompous than ever. Lol.

    • zepfan123 says:

      Yea..the market was going to get this rally no matter who was Prez. We’d be at Dow 18K and SPX 2100 if McCain or whoever was in the WH.- And if tee market takes a big dump before he’s out of office..he won’t have had anything to do with that either…but I’d love to see it happen just to show him he’s got nothing to do with the performance of the stock market. NOTHING.

      • tony caldaro says:

        then how come this didn’t happen when GW was president

      • joecthetruthteller says:


        Correct – Obama has absolutely nothing to do with the stock market. ZIP, NADA. The Fed controls it and makes booms and busts.

        • jjjzzzwww says:

          Obama DID reappoint Bernanke

        • zepfan123 says:

          We agree. And the super rally that started in 1988 right after the 1987 crash..was fueled a lot more by geniuses like Bill Gates and Steve Jobs creating amazing public companies creating huge revenue and 1000’s of jobs, than a Bush 41 or a Clinton who happen to be in office at a given time and sometimes get lucky being in there when things go well. I can’t think of one Prez,..Obama on back… that has the smarts to start or run an amazing new company that becomes the next AMZN or whatever.Throw in an accommodating FED making it easy as pie to get trillions in cheap money and market rallys will come. And sometimes go when the party gets out of hand.- In my opinion..I can think the Dow could be at 25 or 30K before I die..but still think it’s possible to go back to Dow 10K to 12K first.-

    • joecthetruthteller says:


      Obama is simply a Puppet – focus on the FED instead

  30. mike7x says:

    Thanks Tony! What level do you need to see hit (via SPX) to abandon the “possible” uptrend and return to the downtrend scenario? If hit, then SPX 2040/20 would seem to be in play again.(?).

    • tony caldaro says:

      this time
      way down at 2072

      • mike7x says:

        Thanks. Sounds like one more “failed” meeting on Greece, presumably this Sat. Now “they” are talking Plan B. B for bankrupt?

        • B = Grexit but peg to euro like similar to UK

        • tony caldaro says:

          already bankrupt

          • Technically bankrupt for the 2nd time too. The first bankruptcy was when the had to restructure their debt and the private bond holders were forced to take a hair cut.

          • torehund says:

            Tony don’t you agree: We live in a world where truth doesn’t matter anymore, and has not done so for long..So even if someone is bankrupt, a zombie, dead or alive it doesn’t matter until the mass agrees upon it… We all have to keep two alternative and strikingly contradictory truths alive at the same time, one objective, and one that fits with the comfortable lie of the majority. But a trend however insane it becomes at its extreme, will eventually die upon its own weight. I hope that the global population wakes up, and now is the time more than ever before.

          • tony caldaro says:

            There is no truth here Tore.
            This is the realm of Confusion.
            People know not the meaning of life, have not idea why they are here, and even sadder, they do not even seek to find out.
            They think they are born, go to school, get a job, buy gadgets and play video games, get married, raise a family, become a grandparent, and then die.
            Sad but True.

          • fotis2 says:

            Had the wonderfull oppurtunity to turn my back to everything and live on a huge farm in the beautiful Schoemasnskloof valey bordering the Crocodile river in SA.No electricity, closest neighbour a hour’s drive away with a 4 wheel drive.Would turn off the radio and for months the only sounds would be the evening bark of the bushbuck the yapping of the jackals calling their mates the eerie screech of the bushbaby.In the house when the sun went down the white door of the fridge would be blanketed in moths from pinhead to the palm size giant african moths splashed in all the rainbow colours and than some.Ran a small herd of freerange cattle, money became a means to an end till civilization finally caught up with me 6 years down the line with the birth of my little one and sadly left it and came back to the daily grind of life as most know it.What I got out of it? I stopped living my life for others.

          • tony caldaro says:

            good conclusion Fotis

  31. blackjak100 says:

    IMO, a perfect looking expanded flat b wave of V of ED just completed at 2102 with c wave ever so slightly longer than 1.618*a.

  32. Nothing from my studies. More the idea that now that everybody’s trained to sell Fridays (5 in a row down or something like that), and sell gap ups after 2 in a row sold, maybe we get a solid bullish move tomorrow instead of a third down day in a row. Not married to the idea, but I am sorta thinking that a good gap up might actually be a buy tomorrow.

    • fionamargaret says:

      …there is the end of quarter mark-up (which is never done the last day of the month – Tuesday – so if the funds are thinking shortened week holidays, you might get your end of month to-morrow…..

  33. Thanks TC. Yeah, flip flopping around; limbo for the moment… Didn’t see any historical record for Pug’s service. Anybody have info on that?

    Tomorrow’s key Numbers, today… 🙂
    Buy above 2126.96 with Stop 2105.22 and Target 2218.44
    Sell below 2092.21 with Stop 2113.90 and Target 1998.24

  34. JeffMilano says:

    The MKT is now in a down trend for then next week. I expect a day of down climax.

  35. wavediver says:

    Repost. So far, the last 4 days look similar to the first few days of the drop after 2135. It would be interesting to see if a b-wave tomorrow reaches 2119, then a c-leg down to 2077. Coincidentally, that would be exactly on the lower trend line of the LD.

  36. fotis2 says:

    Thanks Tony.Still short looking for 2086 CCI daily close just bellow the 0 line maybe a b wave play tmrw lets see and GL.

  37. mjtplayer says:

    Thanks Tony – chop chop!

    IMO – falling in minute a of minor C

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