Thursday update

SHORT TERM: gap up opening retraced, DOW -76

Overnight the Asian markets lost 0.4%. Europe opened lower and lost 0.2%. US index futures were higher overnight. At 8:30 weekly Jobless claims were reported higher: 271k v 267k, the PCE was reported higher: +0.1% v +0.1%, and Personal income (+0.5% v +0.4%)/ spending (+0.9% v 0.0%) was reported higher. The market gapped up at the open to SPX 2115, then immediately began to pullback. The market had closed at SPX 2109 yesterday. Also at 9:30 FED governor Powell’s speech was released: After a pullback to SPX 2108 in the opening minutes the market rallied to 2116 just past 11am. Then the market started to pullback again. At 2:30 the SPX hit 2102, then tried to rally. By 3pm the SPX hit 2107, but pulled back to close at 2102.

For the day the SPX/DOW were -0.35%, and the NDX/NAZ were -0.20%. Bonds lost 8 ticks, Crude slid 65 cents, Gold dipped $1, and the USD was lower. Medium term support remains at the 2085 and 2070 pivots, with resistance at the 2131 and 2198 pivots. Tomorrow: Consumer sentiment at 10am.

The market gapped up at the open for the second time this week, but immediately reversed the rally and closed the gap. Then after a rally back near the opening level the market declined to SPX 2102. This is the third straight day of a lower daily high/low since Monday’s SPX 2130 high. Also with today’s decline below SPX 2104 the entire rally from SPX 2072 is starting to look sloppy. This may still be a new uptrend, but the hourly pattern is now out of sync with lesser timeframes. Short term support remains at the 2085 and 2070 pivots, with resistance at SPX 2109 and the 2131 pivots. Short term momentum is now displaying a positive divergence at today’s lows. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: potential uptrend getting sloppy

LONG TERM: bull market


About tony caldaro

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138 Responses to Thursday update

  1. zepfan123 says:

    Well i see several holes in the boat. Lets see if they are fixed on Monday. Or not.


  2. blackjak100 says:

    final rally for P3 appears to be underway!!!!! IMO of course.


  3. Regarding Greece, I believe either Germany gives in or they default. Broke is broke. Whats there to negotiate if your Greece. Take my offer or 30 cents on the dollar. Monday should be interesting


  4. zepfan123 says:

    Dow being a bit deceiving here up 40 to 50 pts …thanks to mostly NIKE’s big rally off earnings and a little propped up by 3 other Dow stocks MMM,MD and UNH.- But the S&P,COMP,RUT are all quite weak and the SOX index is extremely weak here. I don’t see much here to get bullish about going into next week but I’ll have to see how Monday starts of the usually bullish and shortened 4th of July week before I get confident about calling a move to SPX 2070 or lower.- Dow 18,000 and SPX 2100 are going to be important to both short term swing trading bulls and bears alike for a long time here.- I’m still in the camp this market breaks below SPX 2070 before it breaks out up over the ATH close of 2130.82…but I won’t do any more index shorts until I see where we close on Monday July 6th.- And billionaire Carl Ichan must feel pretty good so far selling his last 1.4 million shares this week of NFLX for $682 that he originally got for $58 a few years back. Already dropped 5% from there. It ‘s moves like that that got him from a broke but shrews poker playing college kid trying to pay his tuition… to having a net worth of over $20 Billion.


  5. nardobeme says:

    Bid triggered at 2097. We’ll see if it holds… Also picked up some calls on $FB after selling remaining puts earlier at 87. The stock is on fire… lol.


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