Friday update

SHORT TERM: market pulls back, DOW -101

Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.6%. Europe opened higher but finished mixed. US index futures were higher overnight, but turned lower before the open. The market opened at SPX 2119 and began to drift lower. The SPX had closed at 2121 yesterday. With only 3-4 point bounces the market drifted lower most of the day. Heading into the close the market hit SPX 2109, then closed at 2110.

For the day the SPX/DOW were -0.55%, and the NDX/NAZ were -0.35%. Bonds gained 24 ticks, Crude lost $1.05, Gold slipped $2, and the USD was higher. Medium term support remains at the 2085 and 2070 pivots, with resistance at the 2131 and 2198 pivots. Today the WLEI was reported higher: 51.0% v 50.8%.

The market opened slightly lower today, and drifted lower throughout the day following yesterday’s big rally. We had noted yesterday a potential impulse wave if the market rose above SPX 2127. That did not occur. Also, the market has yet to overlap the first wave of the recent rally from SPX 2072: 2104-2089-2127-2109 so far. So it closes out the week in between a potential impulse wave, and a resumption of corrective action. Short term support drops down to SPX 2099 and the 2085 pivot, with resistance now at SPX 2118 and the 2131 pivot. Short term momentum decline after yesterday’s slight negative divergence, ending the week oversold. Best to your weekend!

MEDIUM TERM: downtrend trying to impulse higher

LONG TERM: bull market


About tony caldaro

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41 Responses to Friday update

  1. Quote from Wikipedia article on Austrian economist Friedrich Hayek:

    Also in 1931, Hayek critiqued Keynes’s Treatise on Money (1930) in his “Reflections on the pure theory of Mr. J. M. Keynes” [69] and published his lectures at the LSE in book form as Prices and Production. [70] Unemployment and idle resources are, for Keynes, caused by a lack of effective demand; for Hayek, they stem from a previous, unsustainable episode of easy money and artificially low interest rates.

    It is not hard to imagine what Hayek might think of today’s monetary environment and it’s consequences for the business cycle down the road in time.

    In 1944 he (Hayek) was elected as a Fellow of the British Academy,[106] after he was nominated for membership by Keynes.[107]

    LSE: London School of Economics

  2. nardobeme says:

    Guess I’m the lone bull on the blog… Looking for upside blowout action next week. Sorry! 🙂

  3. Per my post of 10:21 last night, still holding my bearish position. Before yesterday, my indicator was absolutely correct to the day 39 of past 42 signals; 2 of the 3 times it was wrong, it proved to be merely a one-day delay and then the signal kicked in. Made back over half of yesterday’s losses already, July SPY puts and SDS calls so will likely make good profits on this trade as well, gotta love this game!! GL to us all, everyone enjoy the weekend and U.S. Open.

    • reddragonleo says:

      You and I are very similar in our charting and thoughts. We should compare ideas and thoughts as I’m sure I could pick up a few tricks from you and you from me. Email me… red (at) reddragonleo (dot) com

    • student8888 says:

      Glad to hear you’re still holding short FRB. I am too. Have a good weekend and look forward to more of your signals intraday. What time do you usually post? 30 minutes before closing or 15 minutes? Thanks again.

      • Thx student8888, hope you had a good weekend as well, mine was good but would have been even better had the Nats gotten that perfect game last night and had there been a U.S. Open playoff tomorrow…

        If I get my orders filled I post just before the bell, otherwise when I can that evening. In the case of last week, all of the requirements were met in the morning so I knew and posted then that a green close would generate the signal, usually not a sure thing until around 3:45 p.m.

  4. $$$NEWBIE$$$ says:

    This Bear is ready to Rock! Wave 3 Down in Progress! Wave 1 of 3 Target 2070!

  5. gtoptions says:

    Thanks Tony
    SPX Head & Shoulders?
    Good Weekend All

  6. Gary Lewis says:

    Bank holiday in Greece next week? Perhaps we will get down to 2040-2019. I’ll be ready!

  7. sibyn says:

    CH handle 2098next CH mål 2171,

  8. Page says:

    Thanks Tony. Have a great weekend.

  9. blackjak100 says:

    I was questioned on Thursday’s thread and maybe I turn out to be wrong. I was right for 3-4 months and now wrong for the last 2 weeks so maybe my losing streak is not over. With that said, yesterday’s wave displayed every characteristic for a third wave including Increase in MACD and break above base channel from 2072. I’ve always said after hours action means nothing as it always has tendency to reverse. It’s not unusual for a wave iv to retrace more than 38.2% of wave iii. The price action looked like a wave iv as I had a lot of green on my screen. However, 2109 must hold and we need to move higher right out of gate mon. GL and Cheers!

    • brettmersch says:

      Spot on. Take a look at who else is buying on weakness.

    • blackjak100 says:

      Stay tuned in the weekend update as I may have an idea that allows for 2100ish before moving towards 2160ish. Interesting to see Nate kautz count tomorrow which I will post as well.

      El mat this count will be for you as it’s not impulsive….hint ED of some variety.

      • zepfan123 says:

        The SPX closed at 2105 and the ES closed at 2100 in AH we are at 2100(ish) now. SPX 2130.82 is still the ATH close so if we’re going to SPX 2160 anytime soon…Monday and or Tuesday will need to be some serious “gap up & go” days.-

        • blackjak100 says:

          Not at all…stay tuned in the weekend update. This count fits the expectations of the large ED And the smaller ED I will propose. We just saw the same structure in gold a few months back which sent it to $1308 fast before reversing hard

      • Thanks, BJ. I like your post and look forward for your weekend update.

  10. In the three weeks following seasonal expirations, the most up after June 2013 was 31 points. That would be 2141 in the next three weeks out of the seven most recent (before that we used to see bigger moves up out of expiration).

    Of the seven most recent, the most down over three weeks we’ve seen is 62, 79, 104, 18, 53, -5 (gap and go up and not look back) and 54. These results have been worse recently than they used to be.

    Anyway, this isn’t as solid a call as the “buy dips into seasonal expiration” or some of the other ones, but it overall suggests weakness over the next few weeks.

    There was a ton of stuff getting passed around Twitter today about bearish post-expiration weeks in June, from Kora Reddy and Ukarlewitz. Those are more just suggesting that the week(s) after June expirations aren’t really known for being strong overall, and that goes back a lot farther than my sample size.

    • Great stuff to repeat even for everyone who is familiar with Opex.All they need is a surprise Greek”deal” to blow all the bears out of their bunkers.Who can tell anymore WHATS going to happen with Greece.I m still looking for just a shade over 2134 before we pull back…maybe we keep climbing until they do their Grexit.Wait…let me get my coin…

  11. Grand job TC … priceless. As stmro & mjtplayer have stated, the after hours action not very encouraging if your holding long. Monday’s another day and of course anything is possible. However something that is definite is the after hours close took back everything from the ramp that started at yesterday’s open and a little more for good measure. Have a nice weekend folks.

  12. fotis2 says:

    Thanks Tony!My long setup on weekly did not work daily CCI trigger swing short at close. Monday should have some nice fireworks.

    • fotis2 says:

      Weary of the DB confirm on daily could be a suprise in store still to the upside best bet I think take Monday. GL to all and B carefull.

  13. zepfan123 says:

    Well,more happened today that I thought would happen.-I hope Page’s prediction of a good pullback below SPX 2070 happens next week.- Looking forward to seeing whats in store for Mondays action.

  14. stmro says:

    It’s heading lower in AH, currently sitting right on the middle BB, 50MA. Under normal circumstances, would be a good long with only a few points of risk until you know you’re wrong.

    I’m not taking it though. Greece event risk over the weekend and this endless chop doesn’t seem to respect the MAs like a normal trending market normally would – very likely a long would be shaken out on Monday morning regardless of which direction it continues in.

    • mjtplayer says:

      2 Greece meetings on Monday, one of which is in the evening, so the markets could be watching and waiting all day Monday. If no deal when we wake-up Tuesday morning, that’s where the fireworks could begin. ECB has provided enough liquidity for Greek banks till Monday. If no deal, another question is if the ECB continues providing that liquidity and the banks become insolvent overnight.

      Lots of questions for Monday, Tuesday and the rest of next week…

      • stmro says:

        I’m sure a Greek default would cause short-term sympathy selling in the US. In the longer term though it might be net positive as QE-chasing capital returns to the US.

        I mean, a default would be a perfect set-up for a trip down to 2040 before going higher.

        Either way, i’m not trading this nonsense in between. WIll be shorting either 2135 or 2070.

      • Greece, it’s like watching a slow motion car crash, we all know how it’s going to end, but when? zzzzzz…

  15. mjtplayer says:

    Thanks Tony!

    SPX down another 4pts+ from the close AH, now trading 2,105.4

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