SHORT TERM: another gap up opening, DOW +180
Overnight the Asian markets lost 0.1%. Europe opened lower but gained 0.6%. US index futures were higher overnight. At 8:30 weekly Jobless claims were reported lower: 267k v 279k, and the CPI was reported higher: +0.4% v +0.1%. The market gapped up at the open to SPX 2110 and continued to rally. The market had closed at SPX 2100 yesterday. At 10am the Philly FED was reported higher: 15.2 v 6.7, and Leading indicators were reported higher: +0.7% v +0.7%. The market continued to rally to SPX 2127 by 12:30, then started to pullback. At 1:30 the SPX hit 2118. After a bounce to SPX 2124 by 3pm, the market pulled back to end the day at 2121.
For the day the SPX/DOW gained 1.00%, and the NDX/NAZ gained 1.35%. Bonds lost 4 ticks, Crude gained 45 cents, Gold rose $14, and the USD was lower. Medium term support remains at the 2085 and 2070 pivots, with resistance at the 2131 and 2198 pivots. Tomorrow is Options expiration.
The market gapped up at the open for the second day in a row. The rally cleared yesterday’s high at the open and continued to SPX 2127 just past noon. The market then pulled back to SPX 2118. With last week’s SPX 2115 high being exceeded, it alerted us to a potential change in the short term count. We noted this level yesterday. This suggests a potential impulse wave is now underway, for the first time since early February. Should the market exceed SPX 2127 in the coming days, before declining to SPX 2104, then we will have witnessed five waves up from SPX 2072: 2104-2089-2127-2118-xxxx. This would also suggest the downtrend completed at SPX 2072, and a new uptrend is underway. Since today/tomorrow is the quarterly options expiration, it will be interesting to see what unfolds. Short term support is now at SPX 2118 and SPX 2099, with resistance at the 2131 and 2198 pivots. Short term momentum continues to display a slight negative divergence. Best to your Friday options expiration trading!
MEDIUM TERM: downtrend, but market trying to impulse
LONG TERM: bull market