Wednesday update

SHORT TERM: gap up opening on volatile day, DOW +31

Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.4%. Europe opened higher but lost 0.7%. US index futures were higher overnight, and the market gapped up to SPX 2102 at the open. The SPX had closed at 2096 yesterday. In the opening minutes the SPX hit 2104, then the market started to pullback. The market continued to pullback into the afternoon, when the SPX hit 2089. Just before the FOMC statement the market started to rise:, Right after the statement the market hit 2089 again, and then started to rally. After hitting SPX 2102 right after the statement, volatile market, the market pulled back to 2095 by 2:30, and then moved even higher. Just past 3pm the SPX hit 2107, then pulled back to close at 2100.

For the day the SPX/DOW were +0.20%, and the NDX/NAZ were +0.25%. Bonds gained 7 ticks, Crude slipped 10 cents, Gold gained $5, and the USD was lower. Medium term support remains at the 2085 and 2070 pivots, with resistance at the 2131 and 2198 pivots. Tomorrow: weekly Jobless claims and the CPI at 8:30, then the Philly FED and Leading indicators at 10am.

The market gapped up at the open to SPX 2102, hit 2104, then closed the gap and declined to 2089. After that the market fully retraced that entire decline and hit SPX 2107. This is typical FOMC day volatility. At the actual high for the day the SPX set up a short term negative divergence, and started to pullback. For now we continue to maintain the same count, while the market remains between SPX 2072 and 2115. Should the market move beyond SPX 2115, then some adjustment will be required to the short term count. Short term support is now at SPX 2099 and the 2085 pivot, with resistance at SPX 2118 and the 2131 pivot. Short term momentum ended the day with a negative divergence. Best to your Thursday trading!

MEDIUM TERM: downtrend

LONG TERM: bull market


About tony caldaro

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232 Responses to Wednesday update

  1. fotis2 says:

    Close above last weeks high tmrw 3 bar reversal cci on weekly about to break upside of 100.

  2. reddragonleo says:

    Massively overbought now. Should pullback a third of this move up tomorrow at minimum. But being that it’s quad or triple witching we could chop sideways all day, which is more typical of a what happens the day after a large move up. Call it a “pause” day as they reset the short term overbought charts.

    FRB, your system should be saying there is a move down tomorrow as well. Hang in there as no system works a 100% of the time. SkyNet likes to trick us sheep when we least expect it.

    Page, what does your system tell you about tomorrow?

    • Page says:

      Agree extremely overbought, options guys made their money today so I am expecting selling to start late tomorrow afternoon and next week is reserved for bears🙂

    • Thx Red, not worried, merely gave back a fraction of
      what I made on past few signals. Rally surprised me greatly but you are correct that we should reverse down tomorrow.

      Nice call Page & BJ.

  3. jon3385 says:

    And now comes the HFT selling into close

    • CB says:

      your VNQ up nicely today. Does it trade inversely to interest rates, Jon? (if you have time sometime, thanks)

      • jon3385 says:

        VHT taking the lead for me today!! It seems like that is the case but I’m starting to second guess myself with both it and the 10-year being up seems to be happening more frequently lately

        • CB says:

          Wow, what a run!… It’s been a while since I’ve seen a chart like that… Smart investments, Jon. Thanks for sharing your thoughts with us. Always something interesting to chew on . I’m learning so much from you. Thanks Jon!🙂

          • jon3385 says:

            I frequent a different blog with a bunch of guys that have real industry experience, have learned unbelievable amounts from them, most of the stuff I learned from those guys but have tried to piece together some ideas/indicators/trends on my own…if you ever want to stop by we are at:


            but be warned, we goof around a lot LOL

          • jon3385 says:

            If you do, sort by “newest”, not “best” – we upvoted some goofy stuff as a joke so it appears at the top

          • CB says:

            Thanks Jon. Looks like a great place to learn and …goof around! (why
            I’ll need to figure out how to sign in.
            So I’ll need to guess who you are there because you have a different name there, right ? or you can tell me that ?🙂

          • jon3385 says:

            If you sort by “newest” you should be able to figure it out pretty easy🙂

            Just make a Disqus account and bingo you can post! There are no ads and everything is free and all that so no ulterior motives

          • jon3385 says:

            Think Spaceballs, hehe🙂

          • CB says:

            hey Jon, I’m not cool and not a “he,” so I’m not sure whether I……I’m always willing to learn, though..:)
            Disqus is giving me an error message that says that I have the “do not Track” setting enabled on my browser…so I’ll need to see what I can do about that. Maybe I can do it via twitter. Will take a look at it when I have some time. Pleasure talking to you, Jon. Thanks again for the invite!

          • jon3385 says:

            oh, “hehe” as in like a giggle

  4. $$$NEWBIE$$$ says:

    ECB warns EU officials it is not sure if Greek banks could open Monday: Reuters

  5. CB says:
    June 10, 2015 at 3:45 pm
    Thanks guys. You can make a lot of $$ just filling all those gaps🙂 …this market is pretty amazing.. Thanks Tony. GL everyone.

    • CB says:

      you’ve done some really nice work on those gaps, matador. And you even warned us it would take some time to fill that last one. And it did. Nice work as always, matador. Thanks !

      • Thx CB….I try to think of a price chart as a Chess board and as we all know in chess the key is to strategically try and predict your opponents next move or series of moves.

        • CB says:

          Great job, Matador. You are very methodical in everything you do. And you do enjoy all the visual stuff, charts arts, right?’s your passion? Visual arts, that kind of stuff?

  6. zepfan123 says:

    Seems like almost all of the big triple digit rally days we’ve had for the last 3 months have had 95% of the rally happen in the first 20 or 30 minutes and then the market just floats around sideways the rest of the day. And so far..they have not so much started a new uptrend to new all-time highs…as they have destroyed another chance at a down trend starting. Obviously we’re all back on “all time new high” watch for a couple of days here.- I can’t see myself trying another short term trade until i see how we look going into Monday morning and see if a new ATH close over SPX 2130.82 is seriously in the cards. i’m not interested in a little “maybe” short back to 2112 or so.- I would need to believe the odds are at least 75% we go back to at least 2180 before I’ll try another short term short trade. Right now…that prospect happening by tomorrow or Monday doesn’t even look 50/50 to me right now. Trannies,COMP,RUT,etc,etc all look too strong right here to “read” a big reversal into the close today.

    • stephenk1980 says:

      Europe is still very very weak considering this massive reversal. Tomorrow and Monday will be key. I’m looking for ath next two days to try a short. If we go sideways after hitting a new ath then I’ll bail as that will smell too badly of a continuation.

    • zepfan123 says:

      Of course I meant i’d need to think we had a 75% chance at going back to SPX 2080 soon…not 2180. Still on SPX ATH close 2030.82 watch here for the next day or two.

  7. JeffMilano says:

    Tony, any count changes? Not a simple wave to decifer.

  8. blackjak100 says:

    Here comes 10-12 pt pullback as 2127 concludes iii of iii of a.

  9. Peter Sliney says:

    Today is a great example of how much damage can be done if you are not flexible.
    Having a strong opinion and seeking out others to validate you can be highly toxic.

  10. stmro says:

    Wow. Die weit came out with a report that Greece extension had been agreed. Dax jumped 1% and eurusd tanked.

    Half an hour later, ez minister harshly denies rumour. Dax tanks. Someone needs to investigate who’s profiting from these rumour driven spikes. Maybe it’s varoufakis? :p

  11. reddragonleo says:

    SkyNet is such a well oiled machine. You gotta love how well time the release of a possible Greece deal lines up with the need to start a bear squeeze.

  12. lunker1 says:

    Newbie give the post button a rest

  13. Would be awesome if they closed this market red today

  14. jon3385 says:

    Divs will start getting reinvested next week, food for thought

  15. fishonhook says:


    Once again it seems like the downturn /upturn label, nails the market perfectly, but in the opposite direction. Look back and see when you labelled this last downtrend and how many points we have one up since then.

    • lunker1 says:

      Fish what’s the point of your comment?

    • uncle10 says:

      Fish, Tony’s label of a downtrend does not mean short or the market is going down. He is purely identifying a wave/trend. In fact he has said ( numerous times) during this bull fairly soon after he labels a downtrend/wave it/the market turns up. So listen and observe and make money and be thankful or you could just keep doing what your doing.

      • fishonhook says:

        So when the label is downtrend the market is supposed to go up. Oh I see Uncle! Thanks all is clear now.

        So when I say that sounds like on-the-spot-made-up garbage, I actually mean ‘you are very wise’.

  16. nardobeme says:

    Great call page! Parabolic move indeed. My dirty rotten indicator missed this move, but was able to move quick and hedge some. These things happen…

    • Page says:

      Its all options game this week but next week just the opposite.

      • reddragonleo says:

        Next week is historically a bearish week. We’ll see I guess.

      • Just jumping in here. One of the studies I’ve mentioned here is seasonal expirations and the tendency the past 4 years to close an average of less than 15 points from the highs of the three weeks going into the expiration. That would be 2122 so far, so 2107 or higher for tomorrow. There are a bunch of related stats that pointed up here too.

        My studies haven’t always been on, so take it all with a grain of salt of course. For instance, NFP weeks are almost always up the past year or more, but the last one wasn’t. And another one on post-NFP weeks either side of a seasonal expiration was pointing down the last two times, and they both were up (the June post-NFP week was up by just a point though lol).

        Anyway, its very consistent with what you are saying. Up into seasonal expiration, generally down out of, with a few doozies down.

  17. stephenk1980 says:

    Selling this rip right now. Something is massively goosing the markets. FTSE was just climbing gradually and then futures just spiked.
    Short term trade as this is all a bit ‘insider’ for my liking.

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  19. SPY 213.00 puts are being taken out by market makers today imo …also vix hit bottom of it’s channel with S 12.84 area… looking forward to Tony’s update tonight….

  20. Last post for me..but had to mention that silver just dropped 2% or 30 cents after hitting 16.48.Key resistance was 16.50 and now it s sitting at 16.15.To me 16.50 must be broken to set the table for a summer rally in PMs.Otherwise its noise.Good luck all.

  21. Page says:

    Market is in extreme overbought condition, if not this afternoon then tomorrow reversal begins.

    • blackjak100 says:

      Yes, typical of a iii of iii. Pullback of only 10-12pts expected though for a fourth wave and not a reversal.

    • reddragonleo says:

      The question is Page… will it start the C wave down to 2040 area or just a pullback before another move up? But yes, the market is very overbought right now. This looks like a massive bear squeeze too me. I was only looking for around 2110 area but there must have been a lot of bear stops up higher that the market is now hitting.

      • zepfan123 says:

        After what happened yesterday and this huge morning rally…SPX 2100 has to have steel reinforced concrete in it as a support level. And SPX 2070 has titanium. We haven’t been able to break below that number for months now. Must have has 20 chances to do it in the last 2 months.As for today… all key indexes besides the Dow and SPX participating here like the Trans,COMP,SOX,RUT,etc so i’m having a hard time seeing how we get much of a pullback here now being this close to new ATH’s this close to the 4th of July.- A swing short traders worst nightmare today.

        • $$$NEWBIE$$$ says:

          Zep, the market has gone crazy, their is a reason for it. Big boys know the end game, they know just how big the next move down is going to be and they want to bring the least amount of people with them. So, they squeeze over and over again until the timing is right and then they pull the rug.

          • zepfan123 says:

            We’re going to need to see several back to back down days now with ALL sectors of stocks getting hit hard and blow down through SPX 2070 like it’s hot butter before we can get serious about predicting a good correction now.- Going back to SPX 2103 next week isn’t going to be worth mentioning as a “failure” of this rally. Lets see if we get new ATH’s here today.tomorrow or Monday. A close over SPX 2130.82 will do it. Right at the moment..I won’t be betting it doesn’t happen.

          • 7dayyss says:

            Why go against Tony’s count? Until we break 1970 or so, 1820, still PIII. You’ve done more harm to yourself shorting for the big one. Go with the probabilities, remember! Not meant as a personal attack!

        • It’s Triple WITCHing Opex, what do people expect. Watch for all the hidden volume to be explosively released during final 30 min on all retailer trading platforms

      • Page says:

        I think panic selling begins tomorrow, it may go below 2040 and ugly next week.

  22. Yes, will definitely look forward to reading TC’s review tonight after the market close. Good day all.

  23. berniebaruch says:

    RUT at ATH. No sellers today.

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