weekend update


Another day traders week. After starting the week at SPX 2093 the market traded down to 2072 by Tuesday morning. After that a sharp rebound occurred, helped by two gap up openings, to SPX 2115 by Thursday morning. Then the market started to retreat again, ending the week right about where it began. For the week the SPX/DOW gained 0.15%, the NDX/NAZ lost 0.40%, and the DJ World index gained 0.40%. On the economic front reports came in with a strong positive bias. On the uptick: retail sales, business/wholesale inventories, export prices, the PPI, consumer sentiment, plus the budget deficit improved. On the downtick: investor bullishness, the WLEI and weekly jobless were higher. Next week will be highlighted by the FOMC meeting, Industrial production and reports on Housing.

LONG TERM: bull market

While the SPX has traded within a 160 point range for the past seven plus months it has generated five trend reversals, or medium term waves. And made marginal new all time highs at each of the three uptrend tops: 2079, 2094, 2135. Obviously not much progress has been made since the SPX 2079 uptrend high in December, despite strong rallies in several foreign markets during the same period. Nevertheless the bull market continues to unfold in what appears to be an upper level consolidation period, before the market moves substantially higher.


No change in the long term count. Cycle wave [1] has been underway since 2009. The first two Primary waves, of this five primary wave bull market, ended in 2011. Primary wave III has been underway since that October 2011 low. When Primary III does conclude, we expect in 2016 around SPX 2500+, the largest correction since 2011 should unfold for Primary IV. Then a Primary V series of waves should carry the market to all time highs again. Thus far we are looking for it to conclude in 2017.

MEDIUM TERM: downtrend

From the downtrend low in February at SPX 1981, the market rallied strongly throughout that month hitting a high of 2120. After that the market entered a very choppy two and half month period, with the entire range only 95 points. We labeled this entire activity from the early February low as a leading a-b-c-d-e diagonal triangle.


After the high was made in mid-May at SPX 2135 the market entered a downtrend. Downtrends after leading diagonal uptrends are usually fairly swift to the downside. This downtrend, now several weeks along, has been just as choppy as the latter part of the uptrend. This suggests the impulsive part of the uptrend might have ended in February, and since then the market has been forming a complex irregular flat.


Whether it is counted as a leading diagonal, or an irregular correction, the downtrend should lead to the same levels: SPX 2040’s or the 2019 pivot. If an irregular complex flat, support is at the A wave SPX 2040. If an irregular complex zigzag, support should be found around the 2019 pivot range. Under the leading diagonal scenario a 61.8% retracement of the entire advance is SPX 2040, with worse case the 2019 pivot range as well. Medium term support remains at the 2085 and 2070 pivots, with resistance at the 2131 and 2198 pivots.


We have been counting this Intermediate wave two downtrend with a series of a-b-c’s. We have three Minute waves down for Minor A at SPX 2099. Then a Minor B rally to SPX 2122. This is followed by a Minute a to SPX 2072, a Minute b to SPX 2115, and now a Minute c underway.


Another possibility suggests a Minor wave A to SPX 2072, a Minor wave B to SPX 2115, and now a Minor wave C currently underway. This is posted on the SPX daily chart. Again, in either case it appears the downtrend should continue until the market gets sufficiently oversold. And, the NDX/NAZ confirm downtrends as well. Optimistically, this could all occur during the upcoming week. If not, we may stay in a day traders market until month’s end. Short term support is at the 2085 and 2070 pivots, with resistance at SPX 2099 and SPX 2118. Short term momentum ended the week just above oversold.


The Asian markets were quite mixed on the week for a net loss of 0.2%.

The Europeans markets were mostly lower for a net loss of 0.4%.

The Commodity equity group were mixed and gained 0.7%.

The DJ World index remains in a downtrend but gained 0.4% on the week.


Bonds are still in a downtrend and lost 0.4%.

Crude is still in an uptrend and gained 1.8%.

Gold continues to downtrend and lost 0.6%.

The USD remains in a downtrend and lost 1.4%.


Monday: NY FED at 8:30, Industrial production at 9:15, then NAHB housing at 10am. Tuesday: Housing starts and Building permits. Wednesday: FOMC statement. Thursday: weekly Jobless claims, the CPI, the Philly FED and Leading indicators. Best to your weekend and week!

CHARTS: http://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

About tony caldaro

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134 Responses to weekend update

  1. CB says:

    Texas to the NY fed: give me my gold back ..Temper tantrum, anyone? 😛 http://bit.ly/1FU8MCe

  2. Possible double bottom on the daily Dow Jones.

    chart link


  3. stmro says:

    On the upside, 2095 (the weekly middle band or 20 ma) is a good short with a stop above 2108 (daily middle band as well as prior resistance). Target 2040. RR of roughly 4:1.

  4. stmro says:

    What a crazy bounce. In conjunction with last week’s low, it does set up conditions for continuation of the downtrend however.

    Below 2070 is where the cookie crumbles.

  5. uncle10 says:

    Thanks Tony.

  6. Jack Zhu says:

    grab the opportunity, SPX back to the new high territory in this week.
    I think wave counting has been unreliable in this choppy market for a while.

    • camper1888 says:

      If wave counting is unreliable,why you are saying its going back to ATH again? Give me a break, please just be quiet and keep it to your self

    • Jack, always intrigued when people say things like that. Just like the other guy (since vanished), I will ask you the same: When did you enter (long/short), what is your target, and (most importantly) what are your stops/reversals?

      • stmro says:

        Is this ‘other guy’ the one who had 39 correct signals out of 42 and minimum 50k profit on each trade? 😛

        Honestly if i had that kind of success rate i’d own a few large islands by now.

        • Yeah, THAT guy. 🙂
          No kidding; I’m just happy ending the year with double digit returns. lol

          • stmro says:

            I follow the Dax channel on stocktwits. There was a guy called Amura posting every day about making money on long positions – note this is under a backdrop of a 12%, multi month downtrend. Every day, same scenario:

            a) If market up, talk about how well his longs were doing and how all positions were closed at COB ‘for good profits’
            b) If market down, talk about averaging down and how no way Dax can go lower under QE.

            Turned out he was running a scam and had actually defrauded someone in the channel of 40k. He’s since deleted his account. Moral of the story? Follow your own analysis first and foremost, and if you must give your money to someone, be wary those marketing too-good-to-be-true strategies.

          • Spot on. Too good to be true? Pass.
            If you don’t have a system, with hard and fast rules, then this is a game you shouldn’t be playing.

      • Not vanished Drew, go back and read my comments, if you’ve seen anything even half as good as my indicator do tell. Example: last Tuesday evening I said that my indicator gave a Strong Buy signal at the close and as usual the market rallied strongly and immediately the very next morning as fully expected and clearly predicted. Did you see the DIA & SOY calls? The facts are obvious, sorry you seem to be so blind. I posted similarly on 1/15/15, go back and read that comment for yourself, nailed it. Yesterday I posted here (just scroll down) that I would buy back in at Dow 17750-17700 – the low of the day was 17698.42 … not bad, huh.

    • You grab it, i’ll pass this one.

  7. fotis2 says:

    Good example of 3bar reversal on hourly could close gap 2093 today

  8. jobjas says:

    wave 1 of C complete at 2062 Wave C target now below 2000.

  9. mjtplayer says:

    Greek 2yr notes up 271bps to 28.53%. That’s through the 26% resistance area, next stop is the 30% resistance area from April. Above 30% there’s no resistance, it’s “open space”

    Stocks are down, but no big deal, less than 1% here in the US – no fear or panic yet. VIX in the 15’s, no panic or fear

    • $$$NEWBIE$$$ says:

      You can tell there is no fear (Although there should be- the masses are complacent) look at the posts on here the majority is looking for an all time high before correction starts.

      • Page says:

        NEWB: You don’t want to be short by Wed 🙂

      • uncle10 says:

        newbs did you think when the vix is up 10% UVXY would only go up 5%? The chart of uvxy looks nothing like the vix or the stock market. Are you sure you know what you put all your money into really is and what it does??

        • $$$NEWBIE$$$ says:

          Uncle, No I didn’t think uvxy would be up only 5% when vix was up 10%. Although many think Im crazy I still feel confident in UVXY I’m averaged in around $45, yes im underwater, but I’m not really worried about it. I have been tinkering around with these high volatility etf/etn for a while so I’m not scared and I have no emotion, also I think market has topped or will top soon and I believe the correction/crash will shoot uvxy to the moon.

          • uncle10 says:

            lets leave the market out of it for a second. DO you know what UVXY does? What it owns? What it buys and sells and when? If all your money is in it you should.

          • $$$NEWBIE$$$ says:

            yes it based on short term volatility / futures contracts

          • uncle10 says:

            yes it is based on vix futures contracts. It is set up to buy those futures when they are high/expensive and sell when they are low/inexpensive. Its on its way to zero save another reverse spilt. That is not my opinion it’s a fact.

            This discussion is not about whether or not we are at or near a top of the market. Its about UVXY. Its possible we are about to correct or crash and uvxy goes up a lot ( in a choppy fashion given it resets everyday) but maybe we are going to chop around up or down 100 spx points in which case uvxy is going to get killed {see last 4 months} its also possible we trend up for a year or years in which case uvxy gets killed. There are hundreds of ways to bet on a down stock market. Going all in on UVXY is the worst way possible both from a probability, reward, and a risk point of view. For me risk, reward, and probability are important. Good luck amigo.

  10. blackjak100 says:

    Even though New ED is still technically alive, I obviously haven’t been seeing things clearly the last 4-5 weeks unless we miraculously rebound from here after 99.9% wave ii retrace

    • blackjak100 says:

      Not to mention another breach of ii-iv trend line. My gut says 5 waves down on hourly should lead to bounce to 2090-2100 nonetheless.

  11. H D says:

    GM all, 99% time, C testing the 2070 pivot

  12. zepfan123 says:

    Well hopefully we finally at least get to tag SPX 2070 here. Then we can see whats what. But we can justify a drop a lot bigger than SPX 2070 here without out it being a technical danger to the big picture bull market being violated. But we have to see how TODAY closes before we can get too cocky about predicting how the rest of this week goes . Those of us with shorter term short positions here need the COMP and Transport indexes to drop hard from here to help us get the overall market below that hardcore SPX 2070 line in the sand.

  13. 125d holding again…right Fiona?

  14. arthurk says:

    I saw this VIX call/put chart on MW Fri and it reminded me of a couple of articles on a fractal comparison to 2014. Can someone tell me how to paste a chart as an image not http link?

    The pattern of vix call/put ratio (bearishness) is repeating a runup last seen before
    the Sept 2014 top, currently at 3.8 on chart, we appear to be about 2 mns from a top (mid-Aug).
    This also corresponds with a fractal repeating from Mar-Oct 2014 compared to Jan-Sep of 2015 with a lead of about 6 weeks. now we are at Aug 1 2014 where an SPX 85 pt decline was followed by a 115 pt rally to a top in Sep.

    The most interesting feature of the VIX c/p is that it fell sharply to about 2.75
    (less bearishness=capitulation) at the top giving a 2 week warning prior to the top.
    Using actual data, I calculated the 5 dy ema to try to update the chart. We were at 3.98 a few days ago and as of Fri dropped to 2.97 (compare to July 2014).

    The results are almost exactly the same as TCs minute abc scenario. A 90 pt drop from ATH is SPX 2046, followed by a 115 pt rally is 2060.

  15. 30 minutes before the US open and the decline from Thursday’s highs has ground on. Thought we might have got the 5th wave down on Friday but the market decided to meander around in a 4th wave for the duration of Friday afternoon. Today the 5th wave has taken control and taken market down to new lows for the move. Doesn’t look to be much left in this wave which I’m thinking will conclude a larger wave 1 down. A slightly more bearish possibility is that it might be only the conclusion of 3 of 1. If it’s the former then we get sucker rally wave 2 back upstairs which should a very useful trade. If it’s the latter then only a mild bounce for 4 of 1. The bullish possibility of 5 waves up from 17714/2072, with the present decline acting only as the correction of that rally, diminishes with each downtick however this possibility will remain an option until 17714/2072 are taken out to the downside.

  16. Page says:

    Today’s action will make markets extremely oversold condition, I am expecting markets reversal on Tue/Wed and huge parabolic move to the upside.

  17. Thanks TC for a favorite weekend read.
    Wait, I forget, is the market forward looking or ???
    By the time Greece resolves itself, it will already have been priced in, if it hasn’t already. 😉

  18. Possible double bottom on the daily Dow Jones.

    chart link


  19. At 10pm edt futures were down 200 dow,22 s&p and 40+ nasdaq.Two hours later… down 60 dow,8 s&p and 16 nasdaq.By morning—green? Now THAT would be bullish to shrug that off.

  20. bhuggs52 says:

    I just got in from dancing in the park during one of our summer concerts out here, west coast. I see the futures–thanks TC and that’s what I’m talking about. There’s no substitute at certain moments for a man with years of experience tracking the markets with a proven system. Short for tomorrow and make some money this week. Thanks again for the heads up and wave C down.

  21. fotis2 says:

    They will bring it to the edge where a Grexit will be a done thing, Gutenburgers will be coming out to proclaim the 34th market crash of the past 10 years and than out of nowhere Voila! a deal clinched and up goes the index….

  22. $$$NEWBIE$$$ says:

    Seems like many bulls keeps saying pull back and new highs, new highs, new highs. Tops never look like tops at tops. Some of you guys really need to open up to the possibility that No new highs may be coming any time soon. The complacency is pretty amazing.

  23. Update: looks like a repeat of the Jan 15 & Mar 26 Buy signals: popped nicely, came back to retest, then sustained rally ensued to new ATH’s. Per comments posted here real-time Wed & Thur, good to take some profits on initial post-signal spike, will look to buy back if we get retest of 17,700-17,750 area, free money.

    • reddragonleo says:

      Hmmm… I agree we should rally at some point today as the short term charts are very oversold. But my analysis suggest we’ll just have some kind of wave 2 up with wave 1 down starting from last Thursday’s high… meaning it looks like we are in Tony’s C wave down to 2019 or 2040 pivot.

      I don’t use elliottwave too much in the way I calculate my forecasts as mainly I focus on technical analysis. And they tell me that the daily chart has more room to go on the down side before any new breakout to new highs.

      Keep a close eye on your system as it could flip to sell if we rally up close to Thursday’s high and fail to breakthrough it. Whatever method you use is very close to mine I believe.

  24. H D says:

    thanks Tony

  25. M1 says:

    Happy weekend everyone !!

    Abt nothing has changed during the last two weeks

    • M1 says:

      A pullback of abt 194 points on the NAZ was expected.
      It has retraced 140 points in the first wave down so far.

  26. mike7x says:

    Greece is the word, is the word…?…
    “Last-ditch negotiations in Brussels between Greece and its creditors collapsed after just 45 minutes on Sunday, setting up a week that could decide the fate of Europe’s most indebted country.”

    • mjtplayer says:

      SPX futures down 10pts, June VIX futures (which expire Wed) up 2.5%, but still in the mid 14’s. July VIX futures trading 15.58, up only 1.3%.

      No panic or fear yet….

  27. Last minute talks end as Athens walks out. Going to be an interesting week.

  28. torehund says:


    Good site for world-economic indicators. We can see here that Norway is entering stagflation with inflation superseding GDP( which is on decline). US is pretty neutral. Enjoy site, consumer confidence in the USA is on the rise, and with Clinton sugarcoating its poised to rise further 🙂

  29. mh says:

    Thank you, Tony.
    I post my contribute, the forecast of next week in S&P 500 at https://marketmindview.wordpress.com/2015/06/14/spx-weekly-forecast-5/
    Forecast are made through AI techniques and it’s completly unbiased, no opinions are involved. Just number crunching.

  30. blackjak100 says:

    Nate Kautz update tonight matches my assessment last night. Wave iv of ED completed at 2072 and we should be off to one more ATH. However, I’m very confused why he labels 2072-2116 as just wave i of a. That would put the target way too high IMO. The max length wave 5 can travel is 2226 if my calculation is correct. It could be more realistic if wave ii retraces further on Monday. If we get that gift, I will be going long hand over fist as reward would far outweigh risk. GL and Cheers!

    • blackjak100 says:

      The more I think about it, the more I could see why he labels it i of a. P3 = 1.618 * P1 = 2191 if you see P1 with a failed fifth which ultimately turned out to be top of RS of massive H&S back in 2011. This would be first reason, but second reason would be 2162 may not be high enough to produce a decent overthrow by the time it gets there.

      • CB says:

        Thanks bj. I’ve seen a similar ED count recently, where 2067 was the end of 4. Then 3134=A, 2072=B, so we would now be in C (ED)… GL everyone next week.
        Thanks Tony.

        • CB says:

          2134=A, not 3134 🙂

        • blackjak100 says:

          CB, where have you been? That’s where my old ED count was, but TC has displayed that for the last 4-6 weeks on the $SPX daily and it’s still there right now. It simply no longer works because 2072 breaches the ii-iv trendline (b-d trendline on TC’s). ED’s always adhere to their trendlines very well. In fact, this new ED actually breaches the i-iii trendline now. However, this is more acceptable than breaching the ii-iv trendline. Project, monitor, and adjust and that’s what this ED has required. GL and Cheers!

          • CB says:

            Thanks for the explanation, bj. Yes, I am aware of your and Tony’s work (thanks). The other count I’ve referred to has wave 4 completed at 2067, not at 1980, as I’ve mentioned already. Also, if I remember the count correctly, the TL that has to hold currently is the one connecting the lows at: 2067 and 2072. 2072 has to hold or the count will be invalidated. Hope that helps. Have a great week everyone.

      • For what it worth, I personally like Tony’s alt. and Burgas chart were minute one of minor c goes to 2051-2058 minute 2 2090 and minute 3 to 2019 completing June 26. Then end of month rally starting int 3. My 2 cents.

        Good luck

  31. mike7x says:

    Thanks Tony! So the Downtrend should end at ~2019>2040 by the end of June. Then the fireworks should begin. 4th of July is a good time for fireworks and new highs to begin. Got it. Enjoy your weekend.

  32. llerias7 says:

    “Optimistically, this could all occur during the upcoming week. If not, we may stay in a day traders market until month’s end.”
    Once again the FED meeting period should clarify the trend!

  33. Much thanks for the guidance though with everything happening the way it is around the world it s difficult for me to believe the skies clear and we have a superbullish outcome.But I won t rule it out completely.Added to the mix is a piece of spam I got yesterday that I had never heard of.I m sure collective eyes will be rolling about something called Shemitah.Maybe the astrological guys will appreciate some of it but it happens every 7 years in the Jewish faith and has coincided with some huge stock market selloffs.This year its sept 13th and the spam said lots of money managers are aware of this, taking it seriously and selling stocks ahead of this.On the other hand, with all this publicity—maybe it doesn t happen.Interesting stuff and at the least if people believe it it could be a self fufilling prophecy.Maybe sell in advance and buy after? Who knows, but it s somewhat interesting I think.

    • torehund says:

      …break a leg 🙂

      • torehund says:

        Singularity is the notion that we are all in the same ship together, its three and fives in ambiguity, its good and the evil mixed, its man and woman melting into one to create God.
        Duality is force vs couterforce, fighting instead of loving, bad against evil, its cold war and extinction. To embrace singularity is our only path towards survival, however difficult it may be to mankind to embrace it. But we have no choice, amen.

        • robnaardin says:

          torehund, If we have no choice… …what do you brush your teeth with?

          • torehund says:

            Robnaardin, Einstein didn’t believe in free-will, and a famous author named Singer uttered “We have to believe in free-will, we have no choice”. I believe that we as individuals as well as societies and the world in whole run in predetermined patterns, likewise math and physics doesn’t abandon its rules to free-will.
            In Europe we are facing a cultural clash of monumental proportions with Christians opposing Muslims. Fortunately the youth have more fractal openness than adults, and our only option is that they mix with each other like coffee in the milk (extinguishing cultural conflicts). For that to happen their parents have to warn their kids of against marrying inter-culturally, as we know from markets then the opposite happens.

    • lbspytrader says:

      I have read the Shemitah book and found it compelling enough to be mostly out of stocks by September. The goal would be to get back in at much lower prices. I agree if nothing happens due to a self fulfilling prophecy I can get back in. No harm, no foul. NBA lingo for all the baseball followers on Tony’s site.

      • Maybe earlier than September? Somehow this event escaped the media in the past, but now its being focused on.The Shemitah is the last year of harvesting followed by rest.At the end of the year which finishes on Sept 13 this year there s a so called purging of debt which equates with 2001,1987,2008 and 1931 market drops shortly after the end date.Whether I believe it or not doesn t matter…do others who can move markets believe it? If they do you would think they d be smart enough to sell earlier than September.Just my opinion.

    • fotis2 says:

      ”For six years you are to sow your fields and harvest your crops but during the seventh year let the land lie unplowed and unused.” Exodus 23:10-12

  34. Tony,
    I’ve always had a doubt about the size and duration of Major 4. Is there any probability that we are off by a degree and that Int abc to make M4 was in fact minor abc making Int a and that this triangle is an int b wave with a much deeper int c to come to finish M4?

  35. Jack Zhu says:

    I think market will be back to in next week, actually I am like 90% sure.
    SPX 2125+.


  36. JD C. says:

    Thank you Tony for your analysis.

  37. blackjak100 says:

    Thx TC! Tough market for me the last couple of weeks. If the new ED, where wave iv ended at 2072 and b of v ended at 2091, then 1.618*a =2162 which would see a nice overthrow of i-iii trendline. All the EW rules for an ED are still in place. Ironically, the best Gann analyst on the web posted this 2 weeks ago suggesting a target of 2163. I think we head higher for the next 1-2 weeks.


    • tg33316 says:

      Even though I think we head lower this summer, aapl opex for the 19th has I think it was about 150 k op interest at 135.00. The ask on Fri was about $5 maybe even 6.00. Watching it to see how market makers will kill these. Can’t imagine anything in the next 5 days that would warrant such a move. However thinking about calls or going long if warranted next week….that would put the spx at new highs imo…..maybe fed speak wed…greece…cured cancer and alzheimer’s. GL

      • klopharmd says:

        You must have some digits wrong. The 135s are trading at .03/.04. Those are already worthless. 190k in open interest. Oops.

        • tg33316 says:

          June 19 $135 puts op interest 115,844 ask 7.95…yes calls are .04. The puts are in the money huge….seen market makers in the past make a run to take out puts like this….highly improbable. ..but they are there…watching.

  38. fishonhook says:

    It is interesting how two TA could look at the same charts and come to such different conclusions

    Here is s avery Bullish view:

    and a very bearish one:


    • If central banks keep printing currency, wouldn’t the dilutive effect keep all asset prices (stocks) rising over the long term with the occasional 25 to 50% corrections like we’ve had in the past? This is why I think both opinions above will be right at diff. times.

  39. Page says:

    Outstanding update. Thanks Tony.

  40. torehund says:

    Thanks Tony.
    Boots are approaching US in China… 🙂

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