SHORT TERM: gap up opening faded, DOW +39
Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.2%. Europe opened lower but gained 0.5%. US index futures were higher overnight. At 8:30 weekly Jobless claims were reported higher: 279k v 276k, Retail sales were higher: +1.2% v 0.0%, Export prices were higher: +0.7% v -0.7%, and Import prices were unchanged: 0.0% v -0.4%. The market gapped up at the open to SPX 2112 and continued higher. The SPX had closed at 2105 yesterday. At 10am the SPX hit 2115, and Business inventories were reported higher: +0.4% v +0.1%. The market then pulled back to SPX 2107 by 10:30. After that the market went into a trading range between the high/low of the day. Heading into the close the SPX hit 2107 again, then closed at 2109.
For the day the SPX/DOW Were +0.20%, and the NDX/NAZ were +0.10%. Bonds gained 22 ticks, Crude slid 75 cents, Gold dropped $5, and the USD was higher. Medium term support remains at the 2085 and 2070 pivots, with resistance at the 2131 and 2198 pivots. Tomorrow: the PPI at 8:30, then Consumer sentiment at 10am.
The market gapped up again at the open today. But this time it managed to gain only 3 points after the open, compared to yesterday’s 20 point post-opening gain. Nevertheless this rally exceeded the retracement target of SPX 2110, when it hit 2115 today. While this rally has not fully retraced the SPX 2122-2072 decline. It has retraced all but seven points of it. Possibly a different short term count is underway, as this downtrend has again become as choppy as the previous uptrend. The rally has risen from SPX 2072-2115 with just one 8 point pullback. Then there was another 8 point pullback after today’s high. Not much to go on technically from our perspective. Need to see more data. Currently the market is about 2% from the downtrend low, and only 1% from confirming a new uptrend. Short term support is at SPX 2099 and the 2085 pivot, with resistance at SPX 2118 and the 2131 pivot. Short term momentum displayed a slight negative divergence at today’s high. Best to your Friday trading!
MEDIUM TERM: downtrend
LONG TERM: bull market