Friday update

SHORT TERM: good payrolls report, DOW -56

Overnight the Asian markets lost 0.5%. Europe opened lower and lost 1.1%. US index futures were lower overnight. At 8:30 monthly Payrolls were reported higher: 280k v 223k, and Unemployment was reported higher: 5.5% v 5.4%. The market opened one point above yesterday’s SPX 2096 close, then immediately headed lower. In the first 15 minutes the SPX found support at 2086, then it rallied to 2101 by 10:30. After a pullback to SPX 2091 by 12:30, the market bounced to 2097 by 2:30, pulled back again to 2091 by 3:30, then ticked up to close at 2093.

For the day the SPX/DOW were -0.25%, and the NDX/NAZ were mixed. Bonds lost 27 ticks, Crude gained 95 cents, Gold slid $6, and the USD was higher. Medium term support remains at the 2085 and 2070 pivots, with resistance at the 2131 and 2198 pivots.

The market opened about flat, immediately made a new two week low at SPX 2086, then rallied to just above 2100 before heading into a trading range to end the week. We currently see four waves down from SPX 2122: 2102-2113-2086-2101. As long as the current rally does not exceed SPX 2102 this decline could end as a five wave structure. This could be followed by a rally, then another five wave decline. Details in the weekend update. Short term support is at the 2085 and 2070 pivots, with resistance at SPX 2099/2101 and SPX 2118/2122. Short term momentum ended the week oversold. Best to your weekend!

MEDIUM TERM: downtrend probably underway

LONG TERM: bull market


About tony caldaro

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29 Responses to Friday update

  1. CB says:

    Thanks Tony.

    Interesting commentary on the current M&A and stock buyback activity…. (is he an official mouth-piece for the FED, btw ; )

  2. torehund says:

    Thanks Tony, and good weekend to all on board, both bears and bulls.

  3. JeffMilano says:

    Thank you Tony, looking for your weekend report.

  4. Something BIG happened yesterday. NFP today and follow-thru Monday will be misleading. Tuesday will be evident that 85% of traders and investors are extremely vulnerable. Newbie and a few others will be relieved and elated). By market close on Tuesday, many will wrongly assume that they should buy the dip (-55 pts on the S&P). Remember where you heard it, folks.

  5. fionamargaret says:

    ……found this interesting……
    Thanks Tony and all – good weekend everyone.

  6. $$$NEWBIE$$$ says:

    Almost every blogger looking for upside Monday- Bulls and Bears, therefore I declare the masses will not get their wish and Monday will be big down day 2070-2060 on spx.

    • nardobeme says:

      Agree with you Newbie… Am dusting off my bear suit this weekend. Think the market now will take a big dump next week. Yikes…

  7. stephenk1980 says:

    2040 coming up? Definitely a plausible scenario. More so, even. But I just don’t think it’s going to go that way. It just doesn’t look quite right to me…

    I’m out in cash except forex where I’m short USD, so still playing the risk-on game. Can’t see a tempting playable structure in the indices presently.

  8. mjtplayer says:

    Thanks Tony! WLEI reported today?

  9. Thanks Tony. So the NFP week closing down was only the 4th time in 18 months, and that expectation based on odds didn’t work out. Two things now in play for patterns in my book for next week. Post-NFP weeks on either side of a seasonal expiration, and post-NFP weeks that follow a down NFP week. This gets ugly.

    The examples were March 2015, January 2015 and October 2014. All three NFP weeks were, as this, already following down weeks. The post-NFP weeks in all three instances set a high higher then the NFP week Friday close by 10 or 12 points on Monday or Tuesday, and all saw selloffs of 43 points (March 2015), 69 (January 2015), and 72 (October 2014) from high to low intraweek.

    Not sure if we’ll follow the same path, but it looks doable.

  10. fishonhook says:

    VXX down even with the market down. Not sure how or why that happened.

    • fionamargaret says:

      …well fish, I bought UVXY this afternoon, and after a few times of “no available price/we haven’t even heard of such a stock(whatever)”, I managed to sell a few minutes before closing.
      Check your bid/ask this afternoon – something really crazy .x

  11. zepfan123 says:

    Well I thought the Dow would drop as least as much as the DAX today, but at least we closed in the red and well under SPX 2100. With a short trade on both the S&P and SPY index, I’m hoping there is a lot more downside action next week. A whole lot more.

  12. Peter Sliney says:

    The $VIX daily breakout looks dismal.

  13. fotis2 says:

    Thanks Tony! Also expecting another small leg down before CCI closes inside channel again for a long looking for turnaround Tuesday.GL to everyone.

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