SHORT TERM: good payrolls report, DOW -56
Overnight the Asian markets lost 0.5%. Europe opened lower and lost 1.1%. US index futures were lower overnight. At 8:30 monthly Payrolls were reported higher: 280k v 223k, and Unemployment was reported higher: 5.5% v 5.4%. The market opened one point above yesterday’s SPX 2096 close, then immediately headed lower. In the first 15 minutes the SPX found support at 2086, then it rallied to 2101 by 10:30. After a pullback to SPX 2091 by 12:30, the market bounced to 2097 by 2:30, pulled back again to 2091 by 3:30, then ticked up to close at 2093.
For the day the SPX/DOW were -0.25%, and the NDX/NAZ were mixed. Bonds lost 27 ticks, Crude gained 95 cents, Gold slid $6, and the USD was higher. Medium term support remains at the 2085 and 2070 pivots, with resistance at the 2131 and 2198 pivots.
The market opened about flat, immediately made a new two week low at SPX 2086, then rallied to just above 2100 before heading into a trading range to end the week. We currently see four waves down from SPX 2122: 2102-2113-2086-2101. As long as the current rally does not exceed SPX 2102 this decline could end as a five wave structure. This could be followed by a rally, then another five wave decline. Details in the weekend update. Short term support is at the 2085 and 2070 pivots, with resistance at SPX 2099/2101 and SPX 2118/2122. Short term momentum ended the week oversold. Best to your weekend!
MEDIUM TERM: downtrend probably underway
LONG TERM: bull market