SHORT TERM: another gap opening, DOW -170
Overnight the Asian markets lost 0.1%. Europe opened lower and lost 1.0%. US index futures were lower overnight, and at 8:30 weekly Jobless claims were reported lower: 276k v 282k. The market gapped down at the open to SPX 2105, hit 2102 in the first few minutes, then rallied to nearly close the gap at 2113 by 10am. The market had closed at SPX 2114 yesterday. After the rebound the market headed south and hit SPX 2094 by 1:30. By 3pm the SPX had bounced back to 2099, it then dipped to 2093, then ticked up to close at 2096.
For the day the SPX/DOW were -0.90%, and the NDX/NAZ were -0.75%. Bonds gained 14 ticks, Crude dropped $1.55, Gold slid $8, and the USD was lower too. Medium term support remains at the 2085 and 2070 pivots, with resistance at the 2131 and 2198 pivots. Tomorrow: monthly Payrolls (est. +230k) at 8:30, then Consumer credit at 3pm.
The fourth gap opening this week was the only one not to close the gap opening before the market moved on. This one missed by one point. After the attempt the market headed below SPX 2099 for the first time in three weeks. During this morning’s decline it looked like Minor wave b had completed at SPX 2122 yesterday, and we updated the hourly chart. Thus far from the SPX 2135 high, we have a complex flat to 2099 for Minor a, a zigzag up to 2122 for Minor b, and Minor c underway. Some Fibonacci relationships suggest support at SPX 2064 (c = 1.6a), SPX 2050 (c = 2a), and SPX 2028 (c =2.6a). However, we continue to prefer the SPX 2040’s, or possibly the 2019 pivot range. Best to your trading the Payrolls report.
MEDIUM TERM: uptrend appears to be rolling over
LONG TERM: bull market