Monday update

SHORT TERM: gap up opening choppy day, DOW +30

Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.2%. Europe opened higher and gained 0.1%. US index futures were higher overnight. At 8:30 Personal income was reported higher: +0.4% v +0.0%, Personal spending was reported unchanged: +0.0% v +0.4%, and PCE prices were reported higher: +0.1% v +0.1%. The market gapped up at the open to SPX 2116 and immediately began to pullback. Also at the open FED vice chair Fischer’s speech: The market had closed at SPX 2107 on Friday. In the opening minutes the SPX hit 2106, then bounced back to 2113 by 10am. At 10am ISM manufacturing was reported higher: 52.8 v 51.5, and Construction spending was reported higher: +2.2% v -0.6%. The market then pulled back to the low of the day at SPX 2103 by 10:30. Then after a rally to SPX 2112 by 11am, a pullback to 2107 by 11:30, the market moved higher. At 2:30 the SPX hit its high for the day at 2119, then pulled back to close at 2112.

For the day the SPX/DOW were +0.20%, and the NDX/NAZ were +0.25%. Bonds lost 23 ticks, Crude ended flat, Gold slipped $1, and the USD was higher. Medium term support remains at the 2085 and 2070 pivots, with resistance at the 2131 and 2198 pivots. Tomorrow: Factory orders, Auto sales, and a speech from FED governor Brainard at 10am.

The market gapped up at the open today, sold off turning negative on the day, then turned higher in the afternoon. The market continues to do what it has been doing for a few months: remaining in a trading range and remaining a day traders market. We are still counting a small ‘a’ down from SPX 2135 to 2099, then a small ‘b’ up to 2126. Still feel a ‘c’ wave lower is underway, despite the choppy action today. Short term support remains at SPX 2096/2099 and the 2085 pivot, with resistance at SPX 2117/2122 and the 2131 pivot. Short term momentum put in a positive divergence at today’s low, rose to overbought, then finished the day at neutral. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend may be rolling over

LONG TERM: bull market


About tony caldaro

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115 Responses to Monday update

  1. close around 2103 – 2105 for another leg higher or close below 2099 for a big down day tomorrow?

    Any thoughts? Im guessing big up tomorrow

    Close attention to FTR since rupture $ 5.22 asset will be able quickly get $ 5.30 in order for $ 5.42

  3. $$$NEWBIE$$$ says:

    Lets talk about how Citibank is requesting picture ID, social security #. and occupation for any cash transaction at their branches/ A little over the top? Why so strict? What are they anticipating, a coming Bank Run?

    • tony caldaro says:

      you need a job to have a bank account?
      us retirees will have to join bitcoin 😉

    • H D says:

      all ballers know about the CTR for 10G cash transactions. It’s not just C, every bank and credit union.

      • $$$NEWBIE$$$ says:

        HD, that 10k threshold is now 5k. Bank tellers are now asked to fill out a SAR (suspicious activity reporting form) for any 5k transactions. Banks simply don’t want you to take out cash. My experience with Citibank is this; I went to Citibank to break down a $100 dollar bill into 5 twenty dollar bills and they told me I am required to show a valid id, give them my social security #, and state my occupation.

        • H D says:

          That is a weird transaction. I’d be suspicious of you too :mrgreen:

        • Page says:

          I think your case is unique, may be somebody told the bank you are shorting the market?

        • reddragonleo says:

          Try a Goldman Sachs bank… LOL! (not that you’ll ever find a branch office anywhere as they are only called a “bank” so they could steal part of that bailout money back in 2009 crisis).

        • zepfan123 says:

          Never heard of that for something as irrelevant as changing a $100 bill…but i’m going to look into that at CitiBank and my Key Bank as well.Haven’t even been in my bank for a couple of years… as I do all online and electric transfers now and if I do need cash I just use an ATM. But we know security and ID checks will only get crazier from here on until mankind dies off. 10 years from now I’m sure just going into a public library or even a movie theatre will require serious ID checks. Banks,shopping malls,access to even enter an airport, will probably go to full ID check and ‘pat down’ status. Personal privacy ANYWHERE is soon to be a thing of the past. Not good but the toothpaste is already outta the tube on privacy invasion. Soon every new born U.S. child will probably get an electronic ID implant at birth with it’s SS# and be GPS tracked by the Feds for life.Makes 20th century America look better and better.

        • trondack says:

          It’s BS, FDIC was raised to 250k, it should be at least 25k to 50k. The grocery store or a liqueur store will break down bills for stripper tips!

          • zepfan123 says:

            Grocery stores are great for breaking large bills. They are always sitting on so many 10’s and 20’s they can’t wait to get rid of some of them.

    • scottycj1 says:

      Go to a different bank

  4. stephenk1980 says:

    For me this is C of a B wave. Short somewhere between 2118 and 2126.

  5. If today’s rally starts to splutter and zigzags in wedgie like behavior without making much upward progress then it possible we are witnessing a potential for an inverted b wave

  6. ABchart says:

    Greek official sources saying they will definitely make the IMF payment this Friday.

    The european Futurs don’t follow. Algos already turned off here;-)

  7. The daily, weekly and monthly charts just get worse and worse.Some separation on the MACD monthly now…the fast line is down to 132 from close to 150 six months ago.Wonder if it could go back down to -150 like it was in 2009 without the S&P dropping at all…lol.Nothing wpuld surprise me anymore.Still looks like a excellent potential to break 2100 and go from there.Good luck all.

    • Page says:

      If market likes Friday’s payroll numbers (which I think it will) this market is going to move much higher towards 2200 and Fed June 16-17 meeting will only fuel this market.

  8. ABchart says:

    The surge of the German 10 years yields is amazing! this may be the time for the ECB to spend a little money instead of complaining about not finding enough assets to buy.
    + 33% in one session discredits the ECB statement last week. What will happen to European rates, especially those fragile countries, when QE ends?

  9. rc1269 says:

    2109 looks like a good short here

  10. H D says:

    Full moon today, some conflicting patterns, as always, double bottom 2100 targets 55 from the June low, 2155,,, choppy C wave down would be 34 from the June high into 2085pivot. Seems the elevator is broken so most likely stairs in either case.

  11. Too difficult to count these moves with any authority. What does appear to work is “sell the rallies”. This aspect has been fairly global recently. Technically equities are in a correction. However the magnitude of this correction is quite mild. Europe has been trending down too, but at a leisurely pace. There’s just no serious desire to get out of the market at this stage. Economic news lately has been favourable to the bears but the market is comatose. Almost sadly, I don’t think Greece sinking into the Mediterranean would make much difference either. The market is just not ready for a significant move down.

  12. torehund says:

    As we are in nowhere-land, the trench plays like long-Euro and long-crude might surprise going as traditional hand in hand upwards, IF the US dollar exported inflation in the Eurozone is strong enough to warrant a rate hike. At crossroads its important never to become too stale in ones assumptions. Sure the long term chats looks ugly, but a step ascent WORKS even if the macd longterm is far sub-zero. Exciting junction.

    • torehund says:

      if the Euro from 2001 until now has made a wave 1 and wave 2 is ended, a wave 3 would be monstrous. Thoughts that I let run “a bit wild”, but nothing is 100 percent impossible 🙂 at junctions our mind needs to be like jelly.

  13. Almost reached our spot in the Dow Jones

    new chart:

  14. ABchart says:


    ES 60 minutes:

    IMO 😉

  15. $$$NEWBIE$$$ says:

    No need to get excited , simply a gap close. We are headed to 2080 in quick fashion.

  16. Lately one has to be either very nimble or very patient with his trading activity. The choppy action makes the 30 min MACD look as though its been in a bad road accident.

    • torehund says:

      I am looking at the monthly macd of RUT, and there could just be a hocking up going on right now. The weekly macd on the RUT is more ambiguous, however the long chart rules if a major trend isn’t broken..

  17. scottycj1 says:

    I have been working for awhile on a “DELTA” Model. After much trial and error I have a model thats very workable. It is a “Nominal” model based on a few key planets. The key is how the market acts in the cycle. If there is UP Pressure and the market goes up it is following the model. The reverse is true. There are times the market does not follow the model and that means that MONEY is moving against the model and that is a tell also. Today is a low in the model so we see how the market behaves. Since we are moving into an “Up Pressure time frame how the market acts is very important. If the Market trades sideways or slightly until the next peak in up presssure…….then that likely indicates the next “Down Pressure” segment will be stronger. It is relative strength at its finest. Also on the chart are unique “Matrix” based on planetary position.

  18. zepfan123 says:

    Well at SPX 2100 again…it’s another chance for the shorts to drop the ball. Being in an SPX short swing trade.I’d love to be surprised and see this drop go back down to at least SPX 2070. 50/50 odds at best.

  19. stmro says:

    German bond yields and EUR going crazy, all indicating a Greece deal. Yet equities seem inversely correlated.

    • ABchart says:

      After a meeting this night between Merkel, Hollande, Junker, Lagarde and Draghi in Berlin, some european press write this morning that creditors plan to offer Greece access to €11 billion bank funds if Tsipras accepts 70% of program.

    • ABchart says:

      EU spokesman: “many documents are being exchanged between EU and Greece, so that’s a good sign”
      What a farce! lol

    • ABchart says:

      The same spokseman: “We’re not there yet”
      I think another down leg coming this afterboon

  20. lunker1 says:

    rc what’s up in bondville? Gap and go on TNX. Was 21 a 4 to the prior 4 and now w5 up to 24-25?

  21. With sufficient patience, and plenty of spirit(s), there is money to be made…
    SPX Range for tomorrow (with slight mods, just fractions, after first hour)…
    2117.60 to 2108.89; short below, long above, or for the really gutsy, play between.
    Still want that upside gap fill.
    Bring on the Chop, Chop song! 🙂

  22. nardobeme says:

    IMO, I think we’ll plop on or around 2093 before heading higher.

  23. blackjak100 says:

    If you don’t believe the S&P is heading higher, simply look at the clear corrective wave from 2126 to 2103. IMO, it’s the ‘e’ wave of the b wave triangle completing as a DZZ. I mentioned this AM the low risk nature of being from 2105ish with stop 2099. We got the pop to 2119 but retraced a significant portion. I think 2103-2119 was i of c. Target is a=c=2152 which should provide a decent overshoot of i-iii trendline of ED.

    • $$$NEWBIE$$$ says:

      low risk? low risk was a 1000 spx points ago.

    • chicotheman says:

      Thank you, looks good over 2100.

    • CB says:

      Agree bj. Thanks. “E” waves are characterized by over- and (as in this situation) under-shoots. It today’s case, there was still some unfilled gap after Friday’s close and they filled it today. And it is as low-risk as it gets, agree with you, so let’s see how much more forced waiting this Greek situation is going to create…The Moon will be full tomorrow, so it may help resolve things one way or another..GL all.

      Nice call, matador, on IYT. Well done!

  24. DOW JONES very careful with the index it may be riding an OCO (shoulder head shoulder) in order around 17.906k should you lose the 18.041k

  25. Tony,
    WIth all of the choppiness I was thinking that perhaps we have minor a as you indicate, but perhaps instead of minor b we actually have minute a up and currently in minute b down with a c up to come to complete minor b. This of course would indicate some form of flat correction and leave minor c down somewhat short of the 2040 target. Any thoughts?

  26. $$$NEWBIE$$$ says:

    Im rockin this wave 3 down to 2040

  27. torehund says:

    Coldest May at the Norwegian coast since 1920, its official 🙂

    • tony caldaro says:

      heat on June 1st in Midwest
      global warming remember?

      • torehund says:

        Tony, climate is just like the market nowadays, choppy; one day the bulls are right and the next day the bears are winners. I have a hard time thinking how it may pan out with oil going down in a scenario of cooling (I think that there is too much long term monthly, quarterly and yearly chart damage on $Brent to make it a viable hold long term).
        The only solution to that equation is that food may become excessively expensive suppressing the rise of oil and that the Euro depreciates significantly vs the USD.
        Any opinions on the USD-Oil relationship, Euro/USD, and climate change is appreciated.
        Accurate predictions on the direction of the Forex may be vital in understanding the market approaching a Sequential world-wide crisis in government debt.
        Climate is a Joker..

        • tony caldaro says:

          USD up, Euro dn, Crude generally rising … next couple of years

          • torehund says:

            Could very well be so, and then the Euro-Zone will have a tough time paying for what you need; namely Energy, Food and necessary pharmaceuticals.

          • tommyboys says:

            Mmm…I see crude just beginning its secular bear – suggesting generally decreasing prices next few years.

          • tommyboys says:

            Oh I see Tony. You see a crude bear as well but anticipate a “choppy X-wave” next couple years. Your statement from last week referencing RTSI/Crude – “Since that low we are now anticipating a choppy X wave advance, just like Crude, for the next couple of years. After that completes we expect, eventually, a revisit to the 2014 low, and even the 2009 low, and lower, before this multi-year bear market concludes.” Could envision it unfolding this way.

          • tony caldaro says:

            it kind of fits the cycles too

      • scottycj1 says:

        Read my book ….you will understand

  28. Thanks TC; passing on Guinness and going straight for the Cognac. 🙂

  29. torehund says:

    Interesting chart “velocity of money” at a bottomish multi -decade bottom, A-X-C down from the top ?

  30. May 29, 2015 at 2:14 pm , I comment that IMO Trannies were worth taking a cautious long for a decent bounce and post this chart showing the ending wedge set-up:

    Here is an update chart on how it played out:
    Notice that it’s now setting up a potential IHS pattern for more upside potential.

  31. Thanks Tony, agree. Along the lines of a “c” wave lower underway, the last 10 NFP weeks ALL saw declines of 13 points or more intraweek, and 7 of those 10 still managed to close positive. 2 of the 3 that were negative had all or substantially all of their losses on the jobs Friday.

    Basically in support of the idea of a “c” wave lower underway, along with the start of some sort of recovery likely. Both this week.

  32. Thankyou Tony – have read every line written by you since I last thanked you 🙂

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