Friday update

SHORT TERM: pullback Friday, DOW -115

Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.5%. Europe opened lower and lost 1.9%. US index futures were lower overnight, and at 8:30 Q1 GDP was revised lower: -0.7% v +0.2%. The market opened one point below yesterday’s SPX 2121 close, and continued lower. At 9:45 the Chicago PMI was reported in contraction mode: 46.2 v 52.3, then at 10am Consumer sentiment was reported higher: 90.7 v 88.6. The market declined to SPX 2105 just before 11am, bounced to 2110 just after 11am, then hit 2105 again at 11:30. Then it started to rally. The rally lasted until 1:30 when the SPX hit 2117. Then after a pullback to SPX 2106 by 3pm, the market bounced to 2113 by 3:30, then declined to 2107 to end the week.

For the day the SPX/DOW were -0.60%, and the NDX/NAZ were -0.60%. Bonds gained 4 ticks, Crude rallied $2.55, Gold added $1, and the USD was lower. Medium term support remains at the 2085 and 2070 pivots, with resistance at the 2131 and 2198 pivots. Today the WLEI was reported lower: 51.4% v 51.5%.

The market opened lower today, dropped to SPX 2105, rallied to 2117, then ended the week at 2107. Despite the continued choppy activity this market has actually been moving lower since last Wednesday’s SPX 2135 high. The pattern down looks like a small a-b-c to SPX 2099, a rally to 2126, then a series of small waves down to 2105 thus far. The Intermediate wave one leading diagonal uptrend is still the preferred count. With a potential Intermediate wave two downtrend just getting underway. Will do a full review of the charts this weekend. Best to you and yours !

MEDIUM TERM: still an uptrend

LONG TERM: bull market


About tony caldaro

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30 Responses to Friday update

  1. Hi Tony,
    Just enjoying your weekend update this evening. I was wondering how do all the negative divergences, particularly long term time frames, fit with an intermediate wave 2 scenario, it seems possibly to fit with a P4 especially considering how long it took for some of these indicators to form.

  2. torehund says:

    The best, and a steady news flow site concerning Greece.

  3. Thanks TC; looking forward to the weekend report. Have a good one all.

  4. jeffbalin says:

    Thank you Tony

  5. Walter Crane says:

    Massive massive short all the big players are greedy and getting in. could it go a little higher, sure, but real players are getting half in. Its massive, play of the year. Any rally, add and short.

  6. rc1269 says:

    Thanks Tony

  7. zepfan123 says:

    Thanks for this wonderful forum Mr. Caldaro. Much appreciated.-Thought we finally had a break out in the works a few days ago. Not yet I guess.

  8. torehund says:

    Bdi compared to other indices, the most perplexing charts are: Spx (abc up), whilst BDI has done an abc down, also note the discrepancy between FXI (Ssec) and bdi. Other than that we can see that both Soy beans just recently met with the bid line. Copper too short term but is still high in the sky long term.

    • torehund says:

      ..interestingly the commodity index,( initially flying high for years compared to bdi), finally had to succumb, they are now aligned. “We all meet at the bottom” 🙂

  9. DOW JONES very careful with the index it may be riding an OCO (shoulder head shoulder) in order around 17.906k should you lose the 18.041k 28/05/15

    chart link

  10. JeffMilano says:

    Thanks Tony, looking for the weekend update.

  11. epgre says:

    The Dow Transports right now is crashing and Caldaro is still long term bullish?

    • joecthetruthteller says:

      The S&P 500 index is up 1% for the month. The NASDAQ is doing even better and is up 2.4% for the month of May. The DOW is also positive with a gain of 1.3%.

  12. ABchart says:

    Thanks Tony!

    U.S. warns G7 of global economy ‘accident’ without Greece deal

    • berniebaruch says:

      at some point they are going to have to take the bad tasting medicine. its a farce.

    • tony caldaro says:

      Lew said time was precious. “If you look from January until now, too much time has been spent unproductively,” he said.
      totally agree, they have four months playing games
      but what do you expect from politicians?

      • fotis2 says:

        You have done nothing since you got elected what’s the story? Answer:” Well the president is too young and inexperienced give us a chance.” None of the brightspark journalists has pointed out the fact Teddy Roosevelt was the same age when he got elected president of the US.No comparison intended Teddy was a Man among men the character of which,sadly will probably never be seen again in the Political arena in our times.

    • Gary Lewis says:

      This obviously sets the state for the US to come in and bail out Greece. I think that is what everyone is waiting for. US to the rescue (to save themselves).

  13. torehund says:

    Thanks Tony, and good weekend to you and all on board.
    To notice is $Brent, this is seasonally a strong time of year until July, and the monthly could make a little hock, longterm it looks doomed. Seasonality in the dollar is normally inverse of Oil until the height of summer.

  14. Lee X says:

    Thanks Tony

  15. mike7x says:

    Thanks Tony! Still at an inflection point? C’mon, really?

Comments are closed.