Thursday update

SHORT TERM: trendless Thursday, DOW -37

Overnight the Asian market lost 0.7%. Europe opened lower and lost 0.5%. US index futures were lower overnight, and at 8:30 weekly Jobless claims were reported higher: 282k v 274k. The market opened four points below yesterday’s SPX 2124 close, and continued lower. At 10am Pending home sales were reported at a 9 year high: +3.4% v +1.1%. Are the first time home buyers back? The market found support at SPX 2113 around 10:30, bounced to 2119 just after 11am, then dipped back to 2113 just before noon. After that the market rallied to SPX 2122, then dipped to close at 2121.

For the day the SPX/DOW were -0.15%, and the NDX/NAZ were -0.20%. Bonds gained 4 ticks, Crude added 35 cents, Gold rose a $1, and the USD was lower. Medium term support remains at the 2085 and 2070 pivots, with resistance at the 2131 and 2198 pivots. Tomorrow: Q1 GDP (est. -0.85%) at 8:30, then the Chicago PMI and Consumer sentiment at 10am.

The market opened lower today, dipped to SPX 2113, then rallied back nearly to yesterday’s close at 2123. More choppy action in this seemingly trendless market. The sell in May mantra does not appear to have worked this year as the market entered the month at SPX 2086. Not much to add as far as the counts are concerned. The trend is still up and support and resistance continue to work in this day traders market. Short term support is at SPX 2110/2113 and SPX 2096/2099, with resistance at the 2131 and 2198 pivots. Short term momentum vacillated above and below neutral today. Best to your Q1 GDP trading!

MEDIUM TERM: still an uptrend

LONG TERM: bull market


About tony caldaro

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113 Responses to Thursday update

  1. Dow Jones with large chances go you reach our target
    New Grapher

  2. Peter Sliney says:

    Make your target money and walk away. Greed just took away half my of my daily profit.

  3. The NYSE A-D line looks as though it has an A-B-C that it needs to complete:

  4. rc1269 says:

    June might get ugly

  5. Thank you for the donation; note gap now back up at ES 2111.75 besides the initial gap from this morning. If too late in the day, then I will pass. It has come to this… These crazy kids… 🙂

  6. They should have issued this headline 2 or 3 years ago… they want you to buy their overprice Chinese stocks near the upcoming significant top. best to short or shit it out.

  7. If it cant get over 2123 soon, I think it sells off into the close and Monday

    • rally off LOD looks like a rising wedge if it pans out we should see a selling into the close

      • zepfan123 says:

        A lot of this rally of the early morning lows was helped by an almost $3 rally in oil over the last few hours. Lots of oil in the S&P. – 3 hours ago a triple digit + down day looked all but certain. Still possible but they took a ton of energy out of the downside momentum with that 100+ pt DJIA rally the last 2 hours. Always something stopping a good decline these days it seems.

        • CL (futures crude oil) completed a wave 4 triangle
          If you look at energy (oil) stocks they not doing squat and been in downtrend for all of May.

          • zepfan123 says:

            Well the only index I do short term trading on is the SPX, – So with another modest short on it, I’m just hoping it gets closing south of 2100 again by next week. Even going back to SPX 2070 would be nice. Love to see a close of SPX 2099 today..but thats a tall order now after that huge intra-day rally screwed up the early downside momo.

      • CB says:

        good call, matador, lets see whether this holds..

        • looks good CB….I think Trannies are now worth taking a cautious long for a decent bounce, maybe no?

          • CB says:

            Definitely, matador. Great charting as always – thanks!
            And it has some nice divergence, it seems…Is there like a 3X ETF for that? .lol .
            Have a great weekend everyone!

          • I wish there was a 3x etf, I have not even found a 2x etf….lol …. only way is options or 1x etf….
            Anyone else know a better way, please chip in and let us know. thx

          • CB says:

            well, you do good charts, so you need to get paid 3 x, right?… it takes a lot of work and talent to do that . Good job, Matador 🙂
            Apparently that Trannies story is too popular and also (the neg divergence vs the Dow) has happened before ( in 2011) and things took a little time to improve, however the Dow made new highs after that first occurrence… so Trannies are taking their sweet time, apparently..

  8. IMO, publicly both sides are likely only just “acknowledging” that Greece is making payments, but are they “truly” making the payments. I’m of the opinion that realistically Greece is not making any payments. They do not have the money period and for PR purposes it is being agree by all parties to make public statements that the payments are being made so they can continue to buy more time to come to an agreement.

    • uncle10 says:

      of course they are not making payments. they borrow it from imf and then give it back to them as payment. easy peezy. 🙂

    • trondack says:

      Greece says “Save your markets, pay my bill, or kiss me where the sun don’t shine.”

  9. DOW JONES very careful with the index it may be riding an OCO (shoulder head shoulder) in order around 17.906k should you lose the 18.041k

  10. Since we printed another negative 1Q GDP our govt is going to re-issue another +5% 3Q GDP…

  11. rc1269 says:

    Bears need to figure out that if they want the market to go down and stay down they need to stop selling the open. Bots will buy that morning dip every time and ruin their party. How many times have we seen this playbook before

    • ABchart says:

      Hello RC
      I know the TED-spread is not very high right now, but I would like to have your opinion according to data we might ignore because the present time is different in the interest rates.
      At this stage, that could affect the markets and cause a big correction as the summer of 2011?

  12. Been following along while on holiday; great stuff TC.
    Well, wow, just wow on all this action. They must be trying to force us all to become day traders or rather thick skinned. Not sure which but, I will consider a long ES position with break above 2114 on SPX keeping a fairly tight stop after that. Good luck with all this madness. 😉

    • Also decided to play a straddle to weather the madness until we can get back to some semblance of a trend. No action for me unless above 2154 or below 2025 SPX. Have at it day traders.
      Also note there is a gap at 2108.5 on ES that will likely fill… So they be playin us right now. It has come to this; sad… But money is money… And I don’t mind taking theirs.

    • tony caldaro says:

      The market is in equilibrium, like Greece.
      First they don’t have the money, then they found some money.
      Then they can’t make the payment, then they borrow the money to make the payment.
      No, yes, no, yes … while the Bots keep playing that tune

  13. stmro says:

    Spike up on Greek finance minister announcing that they will make the IMF payment on June 5th after all.

    Apparently they had the money all along! No bailout needed. No doubt to be denied by another finance minister in a few hours.

  14. Volume down around 35% in May 2015 as compared to May 2007. Interestingly daily Average True Range in percentage terms slightly higher in 2015, probably because the nature of the market in May ’07 was gradually rising in a “3 of 5” on the way to the November top of that year. When this bull ends in a couple of years this “bear market in liquidity”, which will probably get worse, should send the market down in quite a hurry and well worth preparing for as a trader.

    • TJ, the ever growing Dark Pools have skewed the “true volume” since a lot of the volume from back door deals is not printed on retailer platforms. IMO, since WS is intentionally (whether legal or illegal) hiding and delaying import data print from retailer platforms we must re-adapt our trading strategy and re-adjust how we read/decipher not only the volume but many, if not all, TI’s on our retailer platforms.

  15. pooch77 says:

    Looks to me looking at the daily charts there is significantly more downside to come into next week,looks like those turndates of 24 &25 were spot on

  16. gtoptions says:

    Thanks Tony
    SPY ~ @ .786 Pattern Still Valid
    GL & Good Weekend All

  17. stmro says:

    Break of the inside day to the downside. This is the trend day down that yesterday’s internals were warning about. Now close below 2099 and next week very likely to be bearish.

    • mjtplayer says:

      Agree, 2,098/9 is important area for the bulls. Below that and next stop is 2,080 or perhaps 2,060, with critical support at 2,040.

  18. zepfan123 says:

    Looks like a run to SPX 2140 to 2150 will get delayed. Heck,,we might even close in the red today.

  19. fotis2 says:

    Knock Knock who’s there ? Papa Bear

  20. fishonhook says:

    GDP is a bad measure for the success and failure of society and has become our mantra now.

    Think about if there is a man made disaster like a nuclear power plant erupting or a war starts…GDP goes up.

    If someone invents a device that prevent some essential but expensive, dirty, dangerous job from being done by humans, GDP could go down.

    • Whats good for business and society are 2 completely different things.Thats the tug of war thats been going on forever.If McDonalds installs computers and robots to run their restraunts—it s great for productivity and business, but bad for society and ultimately business.
      This GDP number and Chicago PMI number can t be downplayed as inconsequential when its down (as analysts are saying today).It s either something that matters all the time or none of the time.I think they matter.

  21. mjtplayer says:

    Wow, May Chicago PMI just printed 46.2 – that’s a terrible number and way below April’s reading of 52.3. So much for the Q2 bounce back thus far, April’s economic data has been lousy (can’t blame the weather, Dollar or port strike on April), now May’s data is off to a lousy start.

    The home-building and real estate numbers have been good lately, which are seasonally good this time of year. if it wasn’t for the real estate sector, perhaps Q2 GDP could be flat or negative, which would mean a technical recession after Q1’s revision this a.m. of a lousy -0.7% The Fed is tracking Q2 GDP at 0.7% right now, which would just offset the negative Q1 data, giving us 0% growth for the entire first half of 2015.

    Awesome economy we have, can’t you just feel the recovery? Crickets…

  22. GDP comes in at -.7%.They re blaming the model used to figure it out now saying 1st QTR seasonal adjustments are wrong in computing this…lol.But two years ago first qtr GDP was +2.4%…last years first quarter was down (when we first started blaming the weather) and now this year–so they want to change the formula to get the numbers they want—like CPI was “adjusted'” a few years ago to lower the overall inflation rate.
    The Atlanta Fed, which has an excellent track record in predicting future GDP, is saying 2nd qtr will be +.7% (as of last week)…unless they “fix”the programming used to compute it first.

  23. lunker1 says:

    TNX C=A 21.00 prior 4?
    1.62A 20.38

  24. I thought this was somewhat interesting in that the first 10 trading days of June are pretty good but the first day of June the last 7 years have been negative 4 of those years, fairly substantially too.
    2008 -135
    2011 -279
    2012 -275
    2013 +138
    Good luck all.

  25. I have been warning about lack of market participants and lack of new leaders to lead this market for a few month now. And even though the BuyBack Boys are working OT to keep the bull intact while only managing to pump out measly marginal ATHs, the overall market participation continues to show signs of decay/divergence. If it continues all I can say is what I see on this chart

    SPX Equal Weighted Index vs SPX Cap-Weighted Index Ratio
    snapshot chart:
    active chart:

    Just saying, Ya Know!

  26. Buy signal at Tuesday’s close and market was higher on Wednesday

    Sell signal at Wednesday’s close and market was higher today

    As expected and posted here last night, Buy signal was indeed generated at today’s close, going higher.

    Uncle, thanks for the info; not scary at all when one has a crystal ball. 😉

    Dave, you are correct, market movement isn’t determined by the Fed, bots, dark pools, HFT’s, etc., but ONLY by the data created by the market each day.

    Thanks Tony, everyone have a great night and enjoy the rally tomorrow.

    • Typo, should have read market was lower today, obviously.

    • “Determine” is too vague, IMO, but there is no doubt that the aforementioned do manipulate and influence market movement. Unless you are of the view that all of the recent market rigging WS busts (i.e. Libor, Gold, forex currency, etc) and CB’s currency pegging had no say in market movements, then I guess not. Nonetheless, it is all part of the game and has been since day one and will always be going forward. All investors need to do is acceptable it and beat them at their own game. No need to cry about it but it’s ok to joke about it. Plain and simple!

      • That’s right, don’t cry about it, beat the game. The aforementtioned are coincident, the data are causitive, understand this and your portfolio will be in better shape. To wit, market goes higher tomorrow.

      • Mat you are right on. The spread between the bid and ask on higher time frame tick charts (eg. 1597, 987) have changed dramatically indicating less and less participation. The smart money follows the QE so we are left with the manipulators. That is why I am currently scalping with 233 tick and playing golf.

    • uncle10 says:

      heheh. hey no prob finrep. if you got a crystal ball futures will do you right. 🙂 wise to always keep risk in mind, if you don’t one day you will.
      You call it data I call it math. think we pretty much agree what determines the movement.
      Say you ever heard of a guy with the handle “Catchthemoves”? He was here a while back and you kind of remind me of him.

      • You’re the best, Unc. Glad you could tell I was joking about the crystal ball but my indicator is closest thing I’ve ever seen. I’m sure it will stop working some day but making lots of money in the interim is fine with me. Hit itt while it’s hot. Yes, we agree – data/math determines market moves, everything else is coincident, bogey man, conspiracy theories, etc.

        • IMVHO If the trend has changed to down, it doesn’t matter what indicator works. Not convinced that tomorrow will be up. Good chance that we are down hard.

          • That’s what makes a market! It’s a zero-sum game so unfortunately I can’t make money without its coming out of the account of one who bets against me. I certainly wish you the best, it’s possible that my indicator will get it wrong some day, just not today imvho.

          • fotis2 says:

            Very strong possibility.

        • uncle10 says:

          Morning finrep, always good to control risk just in case 🙂

  27. torehund says:

    Nenner on USD, bullish, Oil and the Euro bearish long term, pointing out their grim chart indicators on Monthly and Yearly Macd.

    • I rarely comment here, but *definitely* fade this guy. He’s a great contra-indicator. I’ve worked with him in the past and he’s one of those people who (in his own mind) is never wrong but you just misinterpreted what he said.

      Fade. (disclaimer: a stopped clock is occasionally correct.)

      • torehund says:

        Chuck: What I am trying to coney is that the Monthly macd has just recently dived deep and that normally indicates that a long bear has started. There may be some exceptions to this rule but normally one may experience a very long bear market with the buried monthly macd where its currently residing…

      • fishonhook says:


        Charles Nenner track record

        Enough said

    • robnaardin says:

      torehund, re gold 52 week highs is your friend. Maybe in the 2nd half of this year.

      • torehund says:

        Gold not yet, aroon on monthly did a cross severely a little time a go saying there is major troubles ahead. It could be a no no for some time valued in Dollars, in Euros it might be a buy but why not just hold dollars if you live out of the US ?

  28. esvxm says:

    Thanks Tony for the analysis!

    Major currencies EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCAD, GBPUSD at interesting juncture, not to be missed….

    Crude Oil bounces back up from the key support, whats next….

  29. graysealdude says:

    Great update! Check out my blog for some advice for the common person!

  30. $$$NEWBIE$$$ says:

    Shanghai Stocks Plummet After Months of High-Flying Gains Down 6.5 % in One Session

    • Page says:

      Problem with Chinese stocks is they go right back up next day so tonight they will regain 6.5% 🙂

    • zepfan123 says:

      Down 6.5% in one session is some serious rock n’ roll. I wish the DJIA was nervous enough to pull one of those off tomorrow or Monday.

  31. for all the bulls & bears out there trying to figure out the next move, enjoy this…even the legendary Art Cashin’s crystal ball was broken….5 years ago :

      • zepfan123 says:

        Thanks Allen for the “Wrong” video. I used to watch CNBC every day and almost worshipped Art Cashin as market prognosticating God. I had no idea he was so wrong so early about the market back in 2010.- Still a great old guy but the past 5 years must have been horribly confusing for him.

      • JeffMilano says:

        Good video on Cash, funny. Well Tony you do not believe 7 more years of hard time in stocks do you. If we are end one after the 3 and 4 and 5, can the the big two last about 2 or 3 years. Thanks Tony in advance and for having such great blog.

    • JeffMilano says:

      Thank you so much! Fantastic video!

    • zepfan123 says:

      A 2 minute Warren Buffett video when he was only 30 yrs old, made 53 years ago in 1962 and him describing a market correction that finally happened after stocks had gone up 50% the last 4 years(1958 to 1962) on flat to down corporate profits confounding the experts. Well except maybe for Buffett. Easy to see here at only 30 he already had a brilliant and cool mind for the markets.

      • tony caldaro says:

        Major wave 3 of Primary III ended on 11/15/61 @ 741.30
        Major wave 4 ended on 6/25/62 @ 524.25
        That 6% weekly drop he spoke of occurred one day before the following monday low.

      • hawkeyes2014 says:

        Prediction : This current bull market finally ended when Buffet passes away

      • JeffMilano says:

        It kind show the different terrain for investing diring different mkt condition. 60’s was the end of a major wave. In the ’70 the mkt went into correction where Buffet got out of investment and closed his partnership. Then he came up with the Berkshire hathaway a firm that should have not existed but he transformed into his master work like a painter makes his final art work. Brilliant, to say the least. There will not be another WB in the next perhaps many, many, many … years. Thank you for sharing the WB video.

        • zepfan123 says:

          @ Jeff,

          Yep…Buffett is a one in billion kind of market guy. Interesting to remember that when that older video of Buffett I posted was filmed.. JFK was alive and well and POTUS.

  32. stmro says:

    Inside day on an inside day in many indexes – tomorrow we have a breakout and a big move in one direction, on a break of today’s range. Needless to say, we’re closer to the top of the range than the bottom.

    Still, as mentioned, the internals look really weird for a day like today. TICK and A/D Line were screaming trend day down this morning and somehow we got a hammer.

  33. gtoptions says:

    Thanks Tony
    Friday headlines today. “Markets Close At All Time High” 😉

    • Yep, bears are going to get punched in the face again

    • blackjak100 says:

      agree, but we are close to the end of P3 IMO. May get that typical throw-over in the 2145-2165 range before nasty reversal. Looks like a DZZ and that’s where it gets complicated because all waves in ED’s are suppose to be zig zags. However, I’ve heard the new interpretation is a WXY is a 3 so it fits. If it hits 2145-2165, I don’t see any other way to count it from 2068 than a DZZ.

    • tradeanimal says:

      In India there is a cute saying – May your mouth taste ever so sweet!

  34. Page says:

    Thanks Tony for update.

  35. fotis2 says:

    Think the Market got some inside info on the Greek issue and we don’t.Something doesn’t sit right with this up move or maybe simply more buyers than sellers…TO BE CONTINUED…

  36. The “Sell in May” doesn’t have start in May. Unless you happen to take WS/media’s word at face value.

    • torehund says:

      We have had some odd 2 years, peaks in mid Feb and actually a “sell in March and go away”. This also happened this year too with a peak in many stocks around 18 of february, a decline and then a higher low now in May; that is if it holds.

    • mjtplayer says:

      Right you are Matador, the “sell in May” can begin in June, more like “top in May”

  37. fotis2 says:

    Thanks Tony.

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