Wednesday update

SHORT TERM: wacky Wednesday reversal, DOW +121

Overnight the Asian markets lost 0.2%. Europe opened higher and gained 1.5%. US index futures were higher overnight, and the market opened three points above yesterday’s SPX 2104 close. Then the market started to rally. By 10am the SPX had hit 2118. It dipped to SPX 2113 by 10:30, and then started to move higher. Nearing the close the SPX hit 2126, then pulled back to close at 2123.

For the day the SPX/DOW were +0.80%, and the NDX/NAZ were +1.55%. Bonds finished flat, Crude slipped 40 cents, Gold was unchanged, and the USD was lower. Medium term support remains at the 2085 and 2070 pivots, with resistance at the 2131 and 2198 pivots. Tomorrow: weekly Jobless claims at 8:30, then Pending home sales at 10am.

The market opened higher today, rallied into the SPX 2118 resistance area, pulled back, then rallied back into the OEW 2131 pivot range. In fact, the market closed yesterday’s opening gap down from SPX 2126. After three small waves down from SPX 2135 into yesterday’s 2099 low, the market has rallied back into last week’s SPX 2120-2135 trading range as well. A resilient market to say the least. Up, down, more sideways action – tomorrow’s another day. Short term support is back to SPX 2118 and SPX 2109/2010, with resistance at the 2131 and 2198 pivots. Short term momentum hit quite overbought today, reversing yesterday’s extreme oversold level. Best to your trading this market!

MEDIUM TERM: still an uptrend

LONG TERM: bull market


About tony caldaro

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65 Responses to Wednesday update

  1. torehund says:

    In Norway pre-recession signs of large layoffs is becoming obvious. Shrinking government funding (due to collapse in oil-prices) is also starting to take hold. Alongside there is a monumental housing bubble, rising costs of handymen, an ever swelling state employment rate + hidden inflationary pressure. The number of refugees from the Middle east and Africa is increasing due to the intensifying conflict, but the funding is insufficient.
    Politicians are starting to chase their tail by increasing their revenues at the expense of t consumer strength, all in all it will not end well. A market driven devaluation of the currency seems inevitable at this point in time.

  2. stmro says:

    We’re going up on very bearish internals – wouldn’t be the first time this has happened in the age of QE, but i don’t trust this move.

  3. UUP has turned lower…possible dollar reversal to fill gaps to 24.20-24.40.It s sitting at 25.58 and conversely GDX has shot past the highs of the past 3 days.Would love to recapture the 50 day on GDX at 19.70.Going to be tough but (gold) fingers crossed.Have a good day everyone.

  4. today’s possible downtrend waves count:
    wave a complete
    triangle wave b complete or almost complete
    wave c down should follow next.

  5. DOW JONES very careful with the index it may be riding an OCO (shoulder head shoulder) in order around 17.906k should you lose the 18.041k

  6. gtoptions says:

    Thanks Tony
    SPY ~ Potential Pattern (numerous others not shown 😉 ) to end this silliness!
    Notes on chart indicate levels pattern is void.
    GL All

  7. ABchart says:

    I think the low of the day is not yet done. Résistance @2118 target 2110/11

    SPX 30′ chart:

  8. $$$NEWBIE$$$ says:

    Bears are clever, Bulls Beware.

  9. rc1269 says:

    reading through the posts it seems most people are pretty confident they have the next move all figured out!

  10. JeffMilano says:

    Is everyone short? Time for the mkt to recover and end the day positive, Tomorrow gap up to then correct in the afternoon till closing.

    • Page says:

      Think going higher, a lot higher …. No fear, so buy the dip.

      • $$$NEWBIE$$$ says:

        wave 2 at 2126 now we dropping into wave 3 targeting 2060

      • JeffMilano says:

        Page, In 13 trading days should make a new high. The way it gets there is Tricky. So Now it is now doing anything. I think that friday morning it is going to gap up to then start adescend from 11.30-11.45AM to monday at 2.00PM. So I am a very short term trader with close stops. I do not think Newbie is correct because of the high in 13 trading days, after that he maybe correct. But hope for the best for Newbie.

  11. Kisshu2 says:

    bears compelling case

  12. hooloo1957 says:

    Hi tony, when you were talking before about dx in a bull market from 2011 to 2017/18, how did you come up with 2017/18? Thanks

  13. Maybe we got that fake Greek bounce yesterday, we can continue the correction now…Dax and Transports leading down.Good luck all.

  14. zepfan123 says:

    Still a tough ‘read’ here..But I see he Trannies just gave back all of yesterdays big gain in less than 30 minutes. That said…unless we get some closes below SPX 2100 today or tomorrow,I’m not going to get too excited about any great pullback possibilities here. For now we’re still in a confusing and stupid very,very tight range.

  15. scottycj1 says:

    History has shown the normal tendency of markets is to bottom near full moons and top near new moons. When the market tops near full moons there can be serious declines. Examples 10-18-1929 full moon—-36% lower in 7 trading days. 10-7-1987 full moon led to a 35% decline in the next 9 trading days. So a failure or minor new highs (E) could lead to a good selloff.

  16. Nothing changed. Still buy the dips. Clear 5 wave pattern DAX :

  17. Mr C who do I complain to regarding broken major support lines (like the Transports at 8500 ish) which when broken,should not be coming back 133 points like it did today…or S&P breaking 2113 yesterday should not be blasting off from 930am today on.These events should be causing some decent selling.Who can I make a complaint to? Thanks (I m not serious by the way…I know its Yellin and co)

  18. blackjak100 says:

    Tough call on the ED…If 2135 was the high, then this was a wave 2 retrace which I’ve seen on 2 separate sites. Pretzel thinks we are in wave v of ED with target 2140-2150, but a pullback to 2110 first for a b wave. Obviously, need to see a swift reversal tomorrow for the wave 2 scenario to play out.

  19. torehund says:

    Thanks Tony.
    Concerning the Dollar : Just looked at the monthly 50 mda average on the $usd, it had a top in 1986-87 a bit lagging the price top in 1985, a similar 50 mda top occurred on the 50 mda in 2003. Accordingly a new 50 mda top may occur about 6 years from now, and a price top about 4 years from now sometimes in the year 2019.
    Back from 1986/87 the 50 mda has also just completed an ABC down.

  20. Minor Buy signal at the close yesterday, minor Sell signal at the close today, setting up for prrobable major Buy signal at the close tomorrow which, if triggered, will be good for 500+ Dow points (50+ SPX).

    I play my indicator’s signals via SDS options, has been extremely good but looking for a trading medium with even more leverage, not concerned about risk since indicator is rarely wrong, any ideas welcomed. Is anyone here familiar with Nadex?

    Thanks as always for all your work Tony.

    • student8888 says:

      Would you care to share your signals during trading hours tomorrow or on twitter? Thx.

      • I have been unusually busy lately with other projects but will certainly try to do so before the close tomorrow, certainly in the evening when I have more time so you can at least track the result. If we don’t go too far above today’s close and end the day lower as I fully expect (went short just before today’s close), the Buy signal should get triggered; all the other pieces of the puzzle are in place, only these two remain.

      • As expected, Buy signal was generated at the close Thursday.

    • uncle10 says:

      hey financialrep. futures offer a lot imo. good leverage, good liquidity, cheap comish,
      not concerned about risk, sounds sort of scary. good luck!!

  21. nardobeme says:

    Well, the leg up I called for yesterday was presented with gusto. Unfortunately, I do not see new highs being made now, but, a quick reversal as early as tomorrow… My initial targets would be 2110 and 2090.

  22. 56rambler says:

    Thanks Mr Caldaro,

    I am so confused! Are you thinking that the hourly chart (which shows the uptrend) is the more probable scenario now? And that the leading diagonal is less likely?


  23. mjtplayer says:

    Tony – one more poke higher to about SPX 2,140+/- complete e of E?

    An int “E” ED inside the larger major 5 ED – IMO. Should complete in the next few days, perhaps Friday on EOM window dressing or Monday on the first of the month new money inflows, then turnaround Tues? We’ll see….

  24. Red alert! Red alert! Impulsing may be in progress!

  25. JeffMilano says:

    Thank you Tony!

  26. If volume is suppose to be dormant because WS is supposedly on vacation for the long summer, well they sure as hell are not hiding it very well. For the second day in a roll volume has exceeded May 15th OPEX volume. IMO, the BuyBack boys sure as hell are busy providing jolts of Bull support while trying to squeezing out any Great Bear hope.

  27. Page says:

    Thanks Tony.
    Unexpected and strange rally 🙂

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