Friday update

SHORT TERM: trendless pre-holiday trading, DOW -54

Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.8%. Europe opened lower and lost 0.1%. US index futures were lower overnight, and at 8:30 the CPI was reported higher: +0.1% v +0.2%. The market opened two points below yesterday’s SPX 2131 close, dipped to 2127, then hit 2131 by 10:30. After a pullback to SPX 2126 by 11:30 the market rallied to SPX 2132 by 1pm during FED chair Yellen’s speech: After that the market pulled back to end the week at SPX 2126.

For the day the SPX/DOW were -0.25%, and the NDX/NAZ were mixed. Bonds lost 9 ticks, Crude dropped 80 cents, Gold slipped $1, and the USD rallied. Medium term support remains at the 2085 and 2070 pivots, with resistance at the 2131 and 2198 pivots. Today the WLEI was reported higher: 51.5% v 51.2%.

The market opened a bit lower, rallied twice over SPX 2130, then ended the week at 2126. A fairly quiet 6 point trading range day to end a narrow 15 point trading range week. With the market failing to rally over SPX 2135, and failing to drop below 2123, we remain at an inflection point. That is, until next week. Enjoy your extended weekend!

MEDIUM TERM: still an uptrend

LONG TERM: bull market


About tony caldaro

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17 Responses to Friday update

  1. M1 says:

    NAZ first wave from mid january lows was 211 points
    NAZ have run abt the same range from the begining of the month lows. So a pullback would not be a surprise at this point, but the next short term resistance is actually at around 5257 (4563 + 694)

  2. pooch77 says:

    Wow , weaker than i thought, looking for minium 5% reversal starting Tuesday

  3. fotis2 says:

    Thanks mr.T 1st daily CCI close bellow 100 2nd day lower high early reversal signs? Wish all a good one this weekend.

  4. Tony,
    This caught my eye and I thought the timing dovetails so well with your forecast for P4 in 2016.
    Have a nice weekend.

  5. blackjak100 says:

    Thx TC! I can now count 5 waves up from 2086-2135 (P3 top?), but still can’t rule out another ATH. Maybe they rip the carpet out from underneath Tuesday to confirm it. If Ew were a science, we’d all be rich! This is one reason I sought out some PUT protection. Have a great extended weekend!

    • arthurk says:

      Am I the only one that sees potential for H&S top on 60 min charts? Took SPY put position 30 min b4 close in case shoulder was followed (it was). Next few days should see bwave -1 to 2085. More on weekend.

      • Gary Lewis says:

        Good luck on that. There has only been one decent down move since 2012. What’s going to change now? The banks will fight to the death to keep the markets up and when they do finally go down, all your counter-parties will default and the naked puts that someone sold you won’t pay off.

  6. mike7x says:

    Thanks Tony. Stuck in an inflection point. Again. Could be worse, like stuck in an elevator all weekend. Won’t go up or down much. Happy Memorial Day weekend!

  7. Hi Mr C…just wondered if you think WLEI and interest rates are connected AND do you anticipate WLEI to continue higher? Have an excellent enjoyable holiday.

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