SHORT TERM: marginal new highs again, DOW -27
Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.4%. Europe opened higher and gained 0.2%. US index futures were higher overnight, and the market opened one point above yesterday’s SPX 2128 close. After the open the market dipped to SPX 2123 by 10am, bounced to 2129 by 10:30, dipped to 2124 by noon, and then started to rise heading into the FOMC minutes: http://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcminutes20150429.htm. Then the market rallied to a new high at SPX 2135 by 2:30, dropped to 2125 by 3:30, then ticked up to close at 2126.
For the day the SPX/DOW were -0.10%, and the NDX/NAZ were +0.05%. Bonds gained 5 ticks, Crude rebound 75 cents, Gold added $2, and the USD was higher. Medium term support remains at the 2085 and 2070 pivots, with resistance at the 2131 and 2198 pivots. Tomorrow: weekly Jobless claims at 8:30; Existing home sales, the Philly FED and Leading indicators at 10am; then a speech from FED vice chair Fischer at 2pm.
The market opened slightly higher today, had its first notable pullback since SPX 2096, rallied to a new high at 2135, then immediately had another notable pullback. Interesting juncture. Since we now consider the May 6th low at SPX 2068 a key level: either wave D of the leading diagonal, or Minute wave ii of an uptrend that is trying to kick into impulse mode. From that low we can now count three waves up: 2118-2086-2135, and 2086-2135 was a clear five waves. So the advance from SPX 2068 was either an a-b-c E wave, or the 1-2-3 part of an impulse wave. If an E the market should soon drop below 2118, 2086, and then 2068. If part of an impulse wave the market should hold 2118 as support, worse case 2110 or 2096, but certainly not drop to 2086 again. The uptrend inflection point has arrived. Short term support is now at SPX 2118 and 2110, with resistance at the 2131 and 2198 pivots. Short term momentum displayed another negative divergence at today’s high. Best to your trading this potential inflation point.
MEDIUM TERM: still an uptrend
LONG TERM: bull market