SHORT TERM: marginal new high, DOW +14
Overnight the Asian market gained 0.3%. European markets rallied on the decline in the Euro gaining 1.6%. US index futures were higher overnight. At 8:30 Housing starts were reported higher: 1135k v 926k, and Building permits hit a seven year high as well: 1143k v 1039k. The market opened one point above yesterday’s SPX 2129 record close. After a dip in the opening minutes to SPX 2126, it worked its way to a marginal new high at 2133 by 1:30. Then a pullback to SPX 2125 followed, just past 3pm, before a bounce to close at 2128.
For the day the SPX/DOW were mixed, and the NDX/NAZ were -0.15%. Bonds lost 17 ticks, Crude dropped $2.15, Gold slid $16, and the USD rallied. Medium term support remains at the 2085 and 2070 pivots, with resistance at the 2131 and 2198 pivots. Tomorrow: the FOMC minutes at 2pm.
The market opened slightly higher today, dipped, then made an all time new high at SPX 2133. After that the market pulled back to SPX 2125. When the futures had rallied to 2134 overnight, (SPX 2138), we took a look at the short term patterns in the SPX and DOW. Just in case the market does breakout above the 2131 pivot range (2124-2138). We arrived with a count that fits both the SPX and DOW, and posted it on the DOW hourly chart. It is the only potentially bullish count we could find to describe the past three months of choppy activity. You can view it using the link below. Should the market breakout, we would count the advance from early May as Micro wave 3 of Minor 3. The breakout would have to be fairly strong to justify this count. Until the market clears the OEW 2131 pivot range we still see all this activity as an Intermediate wave i uptrend, leading to an Intermediate wave ii correction soon. Short term support remains at the 2085 and 2070 pivots, with resistance at the 2131 and 2198 pivots. Short term momentum put in a negative divergence at today’s high. Best to your trading the often volatile FOMC minutes!
MEDIUM TERM: still an uptrend
LONG TERM: bull market