SHORT TERM: rally continues, DOW +26
Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.5%. Europe opened higher and gained 0.5% as well. US index futures were lower overnight, and the market opened two points below Friday’s SPX 2123 close. In the opening minutes the SPX dipped down to 2120, and then began to rally. At 10am the NAHB was reported lower: 54 v 56. The market continued to rise throughout the day, with small pullbacks, until it hit SPX 2132 at 3:30. Then it dipped to SPX 2129 at the close.
For the day the SPX/DOW gained 0.20%, and the NDX/NAZ gained 0.50%. Bonds lost 21 ticks, Crude slipped 10 cents, Gold was flat, and the USD was higher. Medium term support remains at the 2085 and 2070 pivots, with resistance at the 2131 and 2198 pivots. Tomorrow: Housing starts and Building permits at 8:30.
The market opened a bit lower today, dipped to SPX 2120, and then headed to all time highs in the SPX/DOW. The SPX also poked above the upper trend line of the diagonal triangle we have been tracking for Intermediate wave i. This short term count is beginning to reach its upside limit, which we believe is the 2131 pivot range (2124-2138). Should the market clear this pivot range we will be forced to look for an alternative short term count. For now we still expect this multi-month choppy uptrend to be topping out soon. Followed by a short-lived correction of about 5%. Project, monitor and adjust. Still an uptrend in a bull market. Short term support is at the 2085 and 2070 pivots, with resistance at the 2131 and 2198 pivots. Short term momentum hit extremely overbought today. Best to your Tuesday trading!
MEDIUM TERM: still an uptrend
LONG TERM: bull market