Friday update

SHORT TERM: quiet options expiration, DOW +20

Overnight the Asian markets gained 1.1%. Europe opened higher but lost 0.7%. US index futures were higher overnight. At 8:30 the NY FED was reported higher: +3.1 v -1.2, then at 9:15 Industrial production was reported lower: -0.3% v -0.6%. The market opened three points above yesterday’s close, made the high for the day, and then started to pullback. By 10am the SPX had hit 2117, then it stayed in a narrow range for the rest of the day closing at 2123.

For the day the SPX/DOW were +0.10%, and the NDX/NAZ were -0.05%. Bonds gained 20 ticks, Crude slipped 15 cents, Gold added $3, and the USD was lower. Medium term support remains at the 2085 and 2070 pivots, with resistance at the 2131 and 2198 pivots. Last night the FED reported the monetary base lower: $4.010tn v $4.027tn. Today the WLEI was reported higher: 51.2% v 50.5%. The economy is growing again.

The market opened higher again today for the third day in a row. At the open the SPX hit 2124, its highest level since late April, pulled back, then went into a trading range for the rest of the day. As expected, the volatility often associated with options expiration occurred yesterday. With today’s high the market entered the OEW 2131 pivot range again, and was turned away just like last time. Wave pattern and analysis remains unchanged. Best to your weekend!

MEDIUM TERM: still an uptrend

LONG TERM: bull market


About tony caldaro

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21 Responses to Friday update

  1. fotis2 says:

    Daily close hanging man CCI can still go a bit higher so going with Tony’s pivots 2131.I’m looking at following scenario:Monday pullback 2098 2100 gap close.Tuesday turnaround rally 2131 2136 where i think good short.GL and thanks to all the input.

  2. Thanks TC; Happy weekend everyone…

    • CB says:

      haha..that shadow looks a bit like the doji SPY has printed today 😉 Cheers, matador!

    • You referring to the two weekly hanging men from last week and the week before, and what may be a third this week (I’d love to hear if that’s what this is as it looks more like an inverse hammer this week).

      I’ve referenced here that I’ve done a few pattern studies for NFP and seasonal options expiration and Bradley dates (work at extremes). Figured if anyone cares I’ll drop a few notes on what I expect.

      Three weeks into seasonal expiration bullish overall, in that seasonal expirations tend to close within 15 points of the three week highs. So overall up bias into 6/19.

      NFP weeks bullish. So up into 6/5. Post-NFP weeks bearish in months like June, so down into 6/12. But up into 6/19 given the seasonal expiration.

      Whacky if this works, but its what I see from patterns the past 1-4 years depending.

      Wish I had something to say about the next two weeks in May. I’m hoping Tony is right with the primary call here, and we finally get a return to correctable markets.

      • CB says:

        Thanks, you too, matador!

        Great info as always, FO Bella & Waldo. Thanks!

      • FO, correct we have 3 weekly hammer candlesticks (aka hanging man candle as most traders like to call them when this type of candlestick occurred after and uptrend). I will trying and see if I can put a commentary together over the weekend. Cheers and enjoy your weekend.

        • Thanks! Saw a comment elsewhere last week after two that its very rare, and very consistently bearish, but the source was expecting an ugly week to result. Definitely would love to see if something like this with 3 similar has happened in a row.

  3. Looks like we need one more push up to complete the pattern. Could this be a set up for one of those infamous failed Monday morning rallies?

    • blackjak100 says:

      based on wave structure, call/put ratio at 6 yr high yesterday, and a phi-mate turn date Monday…you may be onto something. However, I would not rule out 2140ish which would create a small overthrow.

    • mjtplayer says:

      Good stuff BJ – thanks for passing along.

      Makes sense from what I look at too. Over the past several months, each time the market pulls back even slightly, volatility gets crushed. The VIX has consistently been pulling back into the 12’s for months, but upside pops are limited and very short lived. This simply means that nobody is buying puts and options activity is overwhelmingly calls. This helps explain the ramp-up during OPEX weeks, helping to drive the calls into the money.

      Slight put buying when the market turns and sells-off, but massive call buying on each market dip; thus a very quick VIX smash.

  4. JD C. says:

    Thanks Tony. Appreciate all the updates, special updates, etc. Everyone have a great weekend, and best to your investing/trading.

  5. CB says:

    Thanks Tony.
    So the thrill is not gone yet, as we’re celebrating Mario Draghi’s happy talk… : )
    Happy weekend all

  6. JeffMilano says:


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