Thursday update

SHORT TERM: oversold rally, DOW +82

Overnight the Asian markets lost 1.0%. Europe opened lower and lost 0.2%. US index futures were lower overnight, and at 8:30 weekly Jobless claims were reported higher: 265k v 262k. The market opened one point above yesterday’s SPX 2080 close, ticked up to 2083, then pulled back to 2075 by 10am. Then the market started to rally. Around 12:30 the SPX hit 2093, then pulled back to close at 2088.

For the day the SPX/DOW were +0.40%, and the NDX/NAZ were +0.50%. Bonds gained 9 ticks, Crude dropped $2.10, Gold slid $9, and the USD was higher. Medium term support rises to the 2085 and 2070 pivots, with resistance at the 2131 and 2198 pivots. Tomorrow: monthly Payrolls (est. +236k) at 8:30, then Wholesale inventories at 10am.

After the futures were sharply lower this morning, below yesterday’s lows, they began to recover heading into the open. The market opened slightly higher, pulled back a bit, then rallied into the SPX 2090’s. The choppy activity for the past two months continues. Despite this activity we do see some symmetry over the past two months. Without getting into detail this symmetry suggests good support in the low SPX 2040’s, and then the 2019 pivot range, as previously noted. If the current decline remains simple, as expected, the next drop should take this market into those support areas. From the recent SPX 2121 high we count two waves, of a potential a-b-c, (a) 2068 and (b) 2093. Short term support is at the 2085 and 2070 pivots, with resistance at the SPX 2120’s and the 2131 pivot. Short term momentum nearly hit overbought today after yesterday’s positive divergence. Best to your Friday trading!

MEDIUM TERM: downtrend likely

LONG TERM: bull market


About tony caldaro

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131 Responses to Thursday update

  1. fionamargaret says:

    Good weekend everyone.

    Thanks Tony.

  2. we got back to back weekly hammer doji’s…..last time we saw this happen was on the gold chart back in November 2014 in which I pointed out the extreme difficult to invalidate potential back to back hammer doji trend reversal

  3. nardobeme says:

    Might, might pick-up some TVIX at close. They are a bargain imo. I think SPX will try and target 2120 at close.

  4. mjtplayer says:

    torehund says:
    May 8, 2015 at 1:38 pm

    Saw that, yikes. Perhaps if European bonds have topped and are tanking, money flows to the US bond market as a global safe haven, helping to put-in a top is US bonds? This, combined with short-covering (everyone is short Treasuries right now) and a stock correction (P4) would all collectively have money pouring into Treasuries – giving US bonds their final high?? Hmmm…

  5. johnnymagicmoney says:

    I got caught with my pants down today……………….didnt cost me much except for profits cause I established it around these levels but man o man

    So let me get this straight…………………..GDP .2% trade defecit points to a negative GDP print Bonds off dramatically showing hawkishness productivity on employment missing RUT broke down dramatically past week last month jobs revised worse to a crappy 85k print (making the bump this month less worthy), China a diststaer, Greece still looming, yellen saying stocks valuations are high and markets are higher approaching ATH negating all the bad data and sentiment and words themselves from the money whore herself – simply amazing lol …….this market is beyond stupid ………..

  6. sibyn says:

    Regards Sibyn

  7. $$$NEWBIE$$$ says:

    I may lighten up or sell my position at 2090 area because we might have seen a today at 2118 than b at 2090 and c up to 2150

    • mjtplayer says:

      newbie turning short-term bullish? That’s a sell signal if I’ve ever seen one!

      Bradley turn date on 5/10 (which is today or Monday), have faith newbie. We haven’t ticked above 2,121 or 2,126 yet. Until we do, it’s lower highs and lower lows since late April.

      • $$$NEWBIE$$$ says:

        LOL, yes I could see why you would think that, fact is: I do play the waves bull and bear , some here don’t understand that- they think I just play down, If I only played down I’d be broke years ago. Ultimately I am bearish and think we are topping. I believe an event is coming and will be used an excuse to bomb this market.

        • mjtplayer says:

          Same here, I’m bearish but only P4 bearish, I still think we make new ATH’s later this year or 2016 in a “P5” scenario. I think that once bonds top (yields bottom) that money flows into stocks b/c there’s no place else to go – giving stocks that final thrust higher. That hasn’t happened yet, the retail investor is still loaded-up with bonds. Before they do, I think we get a stock correction (P4) and money flows into bonds as a safe haven one last time, giving us the top in the US bond market. (I don’t follow European bonds, but it’s possible they may have already topped recently).

          I’ve been trading mostly bearish for many months, expecting the market to top-out in P3. The bad news is that the market keeps hanging at the highs. The good news is that it hasn’t broken-out either – just hanging for months.

    • JeffMilano says:

      Be flexible. Hope things work out.

  8. blubrd67 says:

    Tony, did you write any special report on dollar lately?
    I know you did a series of special reports a while ago (a year?). It might be good idea to have a special link to those reports somewhere on side of the page, as those were really usefull, but unless someone saves them in a special bookmark, it’s hard to find them.
    Currently, I would love to see again your long term analysis on oil, dollar and gold.

  9. JeffMilano says:

    Perhaps this the top of ED like BJ was saying and like TC wave “E” and from this point on the mkt will correct. Must be flexible. Newbie where are you?

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