Friday update

SHORT TERM: gap up opening, DOW +184

Overnight the Asian markets open gained 0.1%. European markets open gained 0.4%. US index futures were higher overnight, and the market gapped up to SPX 2098 at the open. The market had closed at SPX 2086 yesterday. At 10am ISM manufacturing was reported unchanged: 51.5 v 51.5, Consumer sentiment was reported unchanged: 95.9 v 95.9, but Construction spending was reported lower: -0.6% v -0.1%. The market continued higher until it hit SPX 2102 around 10:30, then started to pullback. Just before 11am the SPX hit 2095, bounced back to 2102 by 11:30, then hit 2094 just before noon. After that it rallied to SPX 2108 by 2:30, dipped to 2102 by 3:30, then closed at 2108.

For the day the SPX/DOW were +1.05%, and the NDX/NAZ were +1.40%. Bonds lost 17 ticks, Crude slipped 25 cents, Gold dropped $5, and the USD was higher. Medium term support remains at the 2085 and 2070 pivots, with resistance at the 2131 and 2198 pivots. Last night the FED reported a decrease in the Monetary base: $4.027tn v $4.167tn. Today the WLEI was reported higher: 49.9% v 49.3%.

The market gapped up at the open today for the fourth gap opening this week. This follows five gap openings last week, for a total of 10 gap openings during the last 11 days. For those keeping score there were 6 gap ups and 4 gap downs. The net progress during all this gapping activity is +3 points. The SPX had closed at 2105 before it all began. Typically this type of gapping activity occurs during a correction. Yet, the SPX/NAZ/NDX remain in uptrends, while only the DOW is in a confirmed downtrend. Today’s rally took the SPX to 2102, pulled back, then rose to 2108, less than 1% below the all time high. Despite today’s rally we are still not seeing much impulsive activity in the SPX. With this in mind, we took a closer look at our collection of charts/indicators and our findings were somewhat cautionary. More on this in the weekend report. Best to your weekend!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: bull market


About tony caldaro

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46 Responses to Friday update

  1. 56rambler says:

    Mr. Caldaro – with all of this choppiness, is the SPX 2530-2630 by Q1/Q2 2016 objective still intact? Thanks!

  2. fishonhook says:

    There is an unfortunate undertone to this happy little blog site. If you are not drinking the cool-aid and dare say that TA may not work, or mention that someone who has said they know for sure the next turn..was… God forbid wrong or the count was wrong then all the happy little Namaste bunnies turn on you like a bunch of jackals!
    Dissent will not be tolerated.
    Why don’t you go to stock twits?
    Why are you even on the site? Etc etc.
    As if it is up to anyone where one spends one’s hours. I am only astonished that some of you ‘super successful’ chart readers bother showing up here. Surely you must be running your own big hedge funds and are busy flying to St Tropez and Cannes in between having the Lambo servcied

    • fish, I guess now you know how I feel. I’ve been attacked and battered more than anyone on here but guess what… I don’t let em get to me. I do hear what your saying, there is definitely truth to some of your claims. Its a bull pen in here and if you go against the majority or question their approach they gonna give you a hard time, Ironically, you use to mess with me all the time and I guess karma may be showing you some reciprocation. Either way its all good, hang in there best of luck.

      • nardobeme says:

        Sorry to see your frustration Fish. This blog (like many), at times attracts the less than kind, to say the least. I’ve actually defended Newbie from a troll-like person that was just WAY over the top. Naturally, as a trader, as in life, we live and learn, and never perfect. I’ve learned on my trading journey that I can count on no one but myself, e.g. paid newsletters, Gurus, etc.. I developed my own indicators; swing and overnight gaps. Thankfully, both have been very successful, and I try to keep it as simple as possible (very important!). I enjoy this blog, and Tony’s great work as it’s another “tool” for the box, so to speak. Recently, I hopped on Stocktwits. Yikes! Not my cup of tea… I posted two signals late in Thursday’s session on $SPX and $AAPL. Both were naturally a buy, at times when the bloggers were “freaking” out. Don’t give up, and best of luck!

    • buddyglove says:

      Fish…Please stop with the “playing the victim” , I am sure most people here would like to help rather than victimise you. so please, enough with the ” bunch of jackals! ” already.
      Also you seem to have a rather nieve view of Ta and Trading (two very different skill sets btw), there is no fast track and it takes many years of hard work to be consistently successful.
      Here is an analogy if needed. I play tenor saxophone and can play modern jazz and improvise to a resonable standard (although I’m no Stan Getz) but it has taken me over 25 years get technicaly proficient on the instrument, understand harmony, train my ears and also painstakingly transcribing note by note solos by John Coltrane, Dexter Gordon etc, and I stll often get humbled at jam sessions. Your attitude seems to be that you can buy a sax and a book and within a few monthes you will be up on stage with me, blowin’ thru the changes of “Giant Steps” at 300 bpm.
      My point being, before you go blaming the sax and the book for your failings, spare a thought for all the years of blood and sweat that others have put in to perfect their art.
      With the above out of the way, i do sincerly wish you great success in whatever you do.GL.
      P.S….St Tropez ?,Lamborghini?…yeah no thanks, I’d rather drive my Ford Focus to a nice little village pub that serves real ale and play my tenor sax.

      • hkloon says:

        Yes, love those local ale when i was in britain… :)… but bg, maybe u can explain what jeffmilano was asking. Why u think this is still bullish? Thx. I thought ur analysis was quite accurate in that u confirmed what i see in emerging market strength earlier this year and on several occasions sensed p3 top is not there yet when most pple think p3 top is around the corner. Think last year and the year b4 as well… thx

        • buddyglove says:

          Hkloon…Cool, yes we nailed Asia/Pac. I will try to get my thoughts onto the board this wkend gl.

          • hkloon says:

            I still do think everything what we experience is related to currency movement. But this is something i dont understand. Think money is flowing out of euro to emerging market currencies… been seeing some southeast asia currencies rise for probably 4th week contributing to strength of stocks. during ranging like this moment, all i can do is to draw 2 channels one being ceiling one is base and see who breaks out… think peter brandt is calling breakout to upper level if certain price point breaks… in monitoring mode now

  3. Hey Guys, What are you guys going to do early next week when S&P gaps down your trapped and s&p is trading at 2040?

    • stephenk1980 says:

      I was on your side for a while, but now I doubt that you’ll even glimpse 2040 next week I’m afraid.

    • CB says:

      Already sold my position. Not holding OB positions overnight in this market. You are right, it may gap down at any point. Or it may gap up.

  4. M1 says:

    Thanks Tony
    When did the Dow confirm the downtrend ? Are you expecting the other indexes to follow ?

  5. manunidhi21 says:

    Namaste Tony!
    On thursday report u wrote” There is still a possible bullish count, but the 2070 pivot range has to hold”.

    What made you change the count on friday or you were expecting 2120 to be cleared today ?

    Or something whch u can only look🙂

  6. Page says:

    Thanks Tony. Have great weekend.

  7. fishonhook says:

    Well , after my post of yesterday, and today’s market action, my faith in TA has been further reduced. You could not get a more bearish entry into the Friday session and yet up we went. If we keep going up Monday then I will have to call it quit on this gibberish because clearly patterns and counts and TA indicators have no validity in an age of liquidity

    • buddyglove says:

      Fish…I like a lot of your posts, but the above just makes you sound trollish. The entry into the friday session was far from bearish, quite the contrary actually, and the only reason i did not trade the bullish set-up was because I don’t like to open fresh positions on a friday. Maybe yourself and some of the “gurus” you follow cannot read charts, but there are a few of us here who can read them just fine.

      • JeffMilano says:

        Buddyglove can you explain why it is bullish? You have matador saying this is P4 initial. The trend has not been broken, but on a tecnical level why is it bullish, today, thank you!

        • buddyglove says:

          Jeff, many things look bullish to my eye. The bear trap flush breaking an obvious chart trendline and quick recovery late on thusday, was a good bull setup.
          Not p4 yet imho. gl.

      • kvilia says:

        As I said, I bought some DXRLX to add to my small caps. I believe we will see some double digit numbers on the long leveraged instruments within next couple of months.
        Thank you, Tony and all, have a great weekend!

      • fishonhook says:

        Well you sure sound rather superior and full of yourself buddy. I don’t follow any gurus. Go back and read my analysis posted in the comments sections yesterday to see MY analysis of why if was a bearish set-up. I am sure you didn’t even read it, just shoot from the key-board .

        • ariez5 says:

          Fish, I think Buddy went light on you. The majority of your posts are whining and accusatory. Very little technical information. Just a lot of wanting to remind people of what you think they did wrong.

    • JeffMilano says:

      Mkt are tough to trade because the conditions keep on changing. There is holly grail.

      • Market are tough to trade because we could be in an Ending Diagonal or Large Expanding Diagonal. Never the less those structures have wave 3s too. Some time are imp. sometime not and the whole of the structure are corrective. But, still going up until will changes.
        Sorry Newbe, sorry Fish.. sorry bears…it is not yet downtrend. Better wait to confirms. For now 3 up and 3 down, higher high and higher low in a range.

  8. blackjak100 says:

    TC if triangle ended at 2072, it certainly looks impulsive with wave 2 ending yesterday and now in wave 3. The move down from 2126 is clearly 7 waves on hourly chart indicating corrective. Just my thoughts.

    • manunidhi21 says:

      thanks Tony.

      Hi BI..what is end your 5th wave 2077 if you are assuming corrective ?
      I am bit confused with your triangle impulsive count..

      you on both sides :0

      • blackjak100 says:

        From 2072 which was a severe undershoot of a-c trend line of triangle you have 2126-2078 with 3rd wave in progress. E wave of triangles usually undershoot or overshoot a-c trend line. You may be confused because I believe we are in a big major 5 ED where all waves must be abc’s. We are most likely in wave iii of ED.

  9. fotis2 says:

    Many thanks Tony.

  10. Lee X says:

    Thank you good sir

    Time for the a/c yet ?

  11. llerias7 says:

    Looking forward for the weekend report…I think SPX might climb more 2% at best with a danger of a surprising down move…it is not worth the risk…risk/reward asks for a neutral position.

  12. For a guy how doesn’t know how to surf waves, I guess I’m doing ok…..update play by play

    • GYN LAB says:

      Muy bien, Sr Matador… at an interesting point with an eye on 2108 and 2095 early next week! which way will this resolve, HS vs IHS

    • CB says:

      Very nice work, matador, You are on a roll🙂
      Thanks for the charts!

    • bhupal777 says:

      Matador, No doubt that it is a good work from you and very nice charts and more over very interesting observations that you shared yesterday. Well done. As you know we are in a larger uptrend and from a probabilistic perspective all the choppiness should be treated as consolidation. As you know even Tony tried to call P3 top before with no success. That is one aspect I am really not fond of EW which is trying to pick the tops. Prechter, Daneric and EW guys usually call a top when they see either 5 waves up or ABC up. But the reality is not that simple. In fact Prechter also made so many stunning observations in last 6 years which looks so interesting but makes no money for a trader. Otherwise EW on a weekly charts is great tool which helps to know the overall big picture.
      Advanced Kudos to you if P4 already started otherwise we will meet again at all time highs.

  13. CB says:

    “TRADERS TRADING: “It’s an odd day in the markets,” said Jack Ablin, chief investment officer at BMO Private Bank. The economic news out Friday was mostly disappointing, he said, yet traders pushed up major indexes at the end of a rough week.” did it😉
    Thanks Tony. Enjoy the weekend everyone.

    • Thanks CB, I guess in the new age AI bots count as traders, no?

      • CB says:

        hahaha..oh yes, they sure do, matador! Hey, that’s a cool image.And look at that old phone he’s using…lol.. he’s so smart, he doesn’t need a smart phone, I guess…
        and all those paper trading slips on the floor ..just like during Lee’s days…why do bots need paper, eh?😉

  14. stephenk1980 says:

    IMO market was preparing for a correction, hence the bearish patterns forming, but the poor data has put the kibosh on any near term rate raises and hence the pullback has been postponed.

    Perhaps Monday will be a killer down day and prove me wrong, but then again China could announce a cut in their interest rates over the weekend and off we pop!

  15. IAWT says:

    Today’s action looks impulsive….3 coming.

Comments are closed.