Thursday update

SHORT TERM: gap down opening, DOW -195

Overnight the Asian markets lost 1.4%. Europe opened higher and gained 0.2%. US index futures were lower overnight. At 8:30 weekly Jobless claims were reported lower: 262k v 295k, Personal income was reported flat: 0.0% v +0.4%, Personal spending was reported higher: +0.4% v +0.1%, and FED governor Tarullo’s speech was released: http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/tarullo20150430a.htm. The market gapped down to SPX 2102 at the open, it had closed at 2107 yesterday. In the first few minutes the market bounced to SPX 2105, and the Chicago PMI was reported higher: 52.3 v 46.3. The market then dropped to SPX 2091 by 10am, bounced to 2096, then hit 2091 again by 10:30. Then after a rally to SPX 2103 by 11:30, the market dropped back to 2091, bounced to 2096 again, and then headed lower. Just past 3pm the SPX hit 2078, then rallied to close at 2086.

For the day the SPX/DOW were -1.05%, and the NDX/NAZ were -1.65%. Bonds lost 3 ticks, Crude rallied $1.10, Gold dropped $20, and the USD was lower too. Medium term support remains at the 2085 and 2070 pivots, with resistance at the 2131 and 2198 pivots. Tomorrow: ISM manufacturing, Consumer spending, Consumer sentiment, and Auto sales at 10am.

The market gapped down at the open today for the second day in a row. When the market was down 15 points yesterday the sellers got out of the way ahead of the FED’s FOMC statement, and the market rallied back to nearly unchanged. Today they did not back off, taking the market down nearly 30 points from yesterday’s close. While we have tried to sort out the short term action since late-March with a potential bullish twist, we have been in an uptrend. The market has continued to remain in a choppy sloppy mode. There is still a possible bullish count, but the 2070 pivot range has to hold. If not, SPX 2040’s are likely next. Short term support is at the 2085 and 2070 pivots, with resistance at SPX 2114/2116 and the 2131 pivot. Short term momentum hit extremely oversold today. Best to your trading this day traders market!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend under pressure again

LONG TERM: bull market

CHARTS: http://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

About tony caldaro

Investor
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166 Responses to Thursday update

  1. Lee X says:

    imnotanewbietraderanymore says:
    May 1, 2015 at 2:26 pm
    2126 to 2077 = wave 1
    2077 to 2007 = wave 2
    2077 to kaboom = wave 3 (bad news over weekend coming )

    What bad news are you talking about ?

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  2. Jack Zhu says:

    LOL, still count wave?

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  3. Possible H&S developing since the first of April. Take a while to complete.

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  4. sloop says:

    the best bearish case is 2077 was an A,no ways it was busy with whatever impulsive combo Newbie and all those crazy bears constantly count down imho

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