SHORT TERM: gap down opening, DOW -195
Overnight the Asian markets lost 1.4%. Europe opened higher and gained 0.2%. US index futures were lower overnight. At 8:30 weekly Jobless claims were reported lower: 262k v 295k, Personal income was reported flat: 0.0% v +0.4%, Personal spending was reported higher: +0.4% v +0.1%, and FED governor Tarullo’s speech was released: http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/tarullo20150430a.htm. The market gapped down to SPX 2102 at the open, it had closed at 2107 yesterday. In the first few minutes the market bounced to SPX 2105, and the Chicago PMI was reported higher: 52.3 v 46.3. The market then dropped to SPX 2091 by 10am, bounced to 2096, then hit 2091 again by 10:30. Then after a rally to SPX 2103 by 11:30, the market dropped back to 2091, bounced to 2096 again, and then headed lower. Just past 3pm the SPX hit 2078, then rallied to close at 2086.
For the day the SPX/DOW were -1.05%, and the NDX/NAZ were -1.65%. Bonds lost 3 ticks, Crude rallied $1.10, Gold dropped $20, and the USD was lower too. Medium term support remains at the 2085 and 2070 pivots, with resistance at the 2131 and 2198 pivots. Tomorrow: ISM manufacturing, Consumer spending, Consumer sentiment, and Auto sales at 10am.
The market gapped down at the open today for the second day in a row. When the market was down 15 points yesterday the sellers got out of the way ahead of the FED’s FOMC statement, and the market rallied back to nearly unchanged. Today they did not back off, taking the market down nearly 30 points from yesterday’s close. While we have tried to sort out the short term action since late-March with a potential bullish twist, we have been in an uptrend. The market has continued to remain in a choppy sloppy mode. There is still a possible bullish count, but the 2070 pivot range has to hold. If not, SPX 2040’s are likely next. Short term support is at the 2085 and 2070 pivots, with resistance at SPX 2114/2116 and the 2131 pivot. Short term momentum hit extremely oversold today. Best to your trading this day traders market!
MEDIUM TERM: uptrend under pressure again
LONG TERM: bull market
imnotanewbietraderanymore says:
May 1, 2015 at 2:26 pm
2126 to 2077 = wave 1
2077 to 2007 = wave 2
2077 to kaboom = wave 3 (bad news over weekend coming )
What bad news are you talking about ?
Lee I think newbie is referring to this little fella
Hey EL Matador
He’s as big as the door 🙂 BTW is that an entrance or exit ?
I like what u do here and enjoy ur charts and commentary
Thx Lee….it is hard to says if it’s and entrance or exist with all these IHS and HS pattern, so I guess it just depends on whether one believes picture is inverted or not.
Jerry – clip is just meant to be humor. If you read a fair amount of my old post you will notice that I am no perma-bear/bull.
Whatever you are smoking would be cheaper in Colorado
LOL, still count wave?
Possible H&S developing since the first of April. Take a while to complete.
Kinda fits with the longer term divergences I’m seeing.
the best bearish case is 2077 was an A,no ways it was busy with whatever impulsive combo Newbie and all those crazy bears constantly count down imho
2126 to 2077 = wave 1
2077 to 2007 = wave 2
2077 to kaboom = wave 3 (bad news over weekend coming )
Edit… this is what I meant
2126 to 2077 = wave 1
2077 to 2107 = wave 2
2107 to kaboom = wave 3 (bad news over weekend coming )
there are a lot of issues on the intraday chart today, but the way those bears got excited about buying today 😉 the move looks like 5, and not like 3. And I may be totally wrong on that.
What do you mean bad news ?
Hanging in there like a hair in a biscuit; but with current numbers, a close above 2108 will likely take me out.
Seems quitting my shorts wasn’t quite so insane after all. We’ll see what Mon/Tues bring, but if yesterday’s low isn’t taken out very, very quickly, I think we’re on the way up.
The drop in the VIX is just staggering. Yesterday’s intra-day was 15.29, today’s low is 12.77. That’s a drop of over 250bps in just 24 hours – astonishing. We’re not trading at a 20 VIX and dropping to 17.50, this is a massive drop given where we are. The VIX is still showing that there’s absolutely no fear, none, zero. Each and every small bounce in volatility is met with heavy selling/shorting, and quickly. Very, very, complacent market…
Sold my VXX yesterday in the low $22’s, didn’t think I’d be buying it back so soon, but will start nibbling here around $20.90
SPX INDU .618 ATH to yesterday low
The only point bothering me is that to count 2126-2076 as wave 1, it is in clear 3 waves, hence my attempt to see as 1-2, 1-2… But hey, whatever floats the boat, I am going with it! Not looking for end of the world scenarios sub 2000… Just a healthy pullback into the low 2000s (2010-2035 area) to get on the long wave 3 ride!
SPY on pace today to do half of yesterday’s volume. That’s right, half.
QQQ on pace today to do 35% – 40% lighter volume than yesterday.
I’m in the camp that says this is just a bounce. SPX 2,108 is the .618 retrace, we just tagged it.
Even Ray Charles can see the market is topping and is about to drop hard and leave no prisoners.
https://ioneblackdoctor.files.wordpress.com/2013/09/screen-shot-2013-09-23-at-12-04-04-pm.png?w=611&h=374
Buy Buy Buy …
U gota love it… The blind leading the BLIND!!
Amazing wave symmetry….Battle of the HS’s…IHS vs HS
http://tos.mx/ROb60J
Assuming C-wave down, I see a nice 1-2, 1-2 with the 2102 .618 retrace of 2118-2076 (2118 was itself a .786 of 2126-2095… For this scenario to hold this rolls over soon to close red with a gap down on Monday
http://www.safehaven.com/article/37494/those-who-go-short-with-this-level-of-inflowing-liquidity-normally-get-hurt
Thanks BJ. I received the same article from Marty Chenard this morning – but also thought this interesting (other side of the coin so to speak).
Thanks fionamargaret, that’s what I have been sensing is happening with the market
Doesn’t have to close in the red. I see your count though.
If the SPX would end the day close to the low of the day but still positive and then open lower on Monday, you will have an old fashioned thrust move.
Speaking of old fashioned, I will be having one tonight.
ok.. .618 didn’t hold and I am now cautious. Over 2109 (.786) this scenario would be in danger
And now we are playing suck the vix out of the market again. The Chopfest will drive a man to drink. And I shall within the next two hours.
Hey Torehund, do you recall our conversation back on April 9th about USA is determined to bring back manufacturing to the motherland? Well final news is moving to the front page
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-flips-the-script-on-jobs-reshoring-finally-outpaced-offshoring-in-2014-2015-05-01
Thanks Tony
Looks like to the Moon from here. Well if SPY 207 holds.
GL & Good Weekend All ~ You too Newbie, stay away from those cliffs! 🙂
Hello to all my hater fan club.
Enjoy the ride down.
LOL..oh well, it was a Hummer driver.. 😛
.Hopefully it starts going somewhere..cuz right now it’s extremely sideways (aka frustrating)
haha. no hate from me newbie. In fact I think you will probably make some money on your trade ( possibly after some more heat) , but only if you don’t get greedy and get out. I have a feeling your targets are way too high. I have a small short and looking to add sometime next week- so when I say good luck I mean it 🙂
#UVXY you can always buy it cheaper
you’re must be kidding about those haters, newbie 😉
Everyone here likes you.
Cheers!