Thursday update

SHORT TERM: gap down opening, DOW -195

Overnight the Asian markets lost 1.4%. Europe opened higher and gained 0.2%. US index futures were lower overnight. At 8:30 weekly Jobless claims were reported lower: 262k v 295k, Personal income was reported flat: 0.0% v +0.4%, Personal spending was reported higher: +0.4% v +0.1%, and FED governor Tarullo’s speech was released: The market gapped down to SPX 2102 at the open, it had closed at 2107 yesterday. In the first few minutes the market bounced to SPX 2105, and the Chicago PMI was reported higher: 52.3 v 46.3. The market then dropped to SPX 2091 by 10am, bounced to 2096, then hit 2091 again by 10:30. Then after a rally to SPX 2103 by 11:30, the market dropped back to 2091, bounced to 2096 again, and then headed lower. Just past 3pm the SPX hit 2078, then rallied to close at 2086.

For the day the SPX/DOW were -1.05%, and the NDX/NAZ were -1.65%. Bonds lost 3 ticks, Crude rallied $1.10, Gold dropped $20, and the USD was lower too. Medium term support remains at the 2085 and 2070 pivots, with resistance at the 2131 and 2198 pivots. Tomorrow: ISM manufacturing, Consumer spending, Consumer sentiment, and Auto sales at 10am.

The market gapped down at the open today for the second day in a row. When the market was down 15 points yesterday the sellers got out of the way ahead of the FED’s FOMC statement, and the market rallied back to nearly unchanged. Today they did not back off, taking the market down nearly 30 points from yesterday’s close. While we have tried to sort out the short term action since late-March with a potential bullish twist, we have been in an uptrend. The market has continued to remain in a choppy sloppy mode. There is still a possible bullish count, but the 2070 pivot range has to hold. If not, SPX 2040’s are likely next. Short term support is at the 2085 and 2070 pivots, with resistance at SPX 2114/2116 and the 2131 pivot. Short term momentum hit extremely oversold today. Best to your trading this day traders market!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend under pressure again

LONG TERM: bull market


About tony caldaro

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166 Responses to Thursday update

  1. Lee X says:

    imnotanewbietraderanymore says:
    May 1, 2015 at 2:26 pm
    2126 to 2077 = wave 1
    2077 to 2007 = wave 2
    2077 to kaboom = wave 3 (bad news over weekend coming )

    What bad news are you talking about ?

  2. Jack Zhu says:

    LOL, still count wave?

  3. Possible H&S developing since the first of April. Take a while to complete.

  4. sloop says:

    the best bearish case is 2077 was an A,no ways it was busy with whatever impulsive combo Newbie and all those crazy bears constantly count down imho

  5. Hanging in there like a hair in a biscuit; but with current numbers, a close above 2108 will likely take me out.

  6. stephenk1980 says:

    Seems quitting my shorts wasn’t quite so insane after all. We’ll see what Mon/Tues bring, but if yesterday’s low isn’t taken out very, very quickly, I think we’re on the way up.

  7. mjtplayer says:

    The drop in the VIX is just staggering. Yesterday’s intra-day was 15.29, today’s low is 12.77. That’s a drop of over 250bps in just 24 hours – astonishing. We’re not trading at a 20 VIX and dropping to 17.50, this is a massive drop given where we are. The VIX is still showing that there’s absolutely no fear, none, zero. Each and every small bounce in volatility is met with heavy selling/shorting, and quickly. Very, very, complacent market…

    Sold my VXX yesterday in the low $22’s, didn’t think I’d be buying it back so soon, but will start nibbling here around $20.90

  8. lunker1 says:

    SPX INDU .618 ATH to yesterday low

    • GYN LAB says:

      The only point bothering me is that to count 2126-2076 as wave 1, it is in clear 3 waves, hence my attempt to see as 1-2, 1-2… But hey, whatever floats the boat, I am going with it! Not looking for end of the world scenarios sub 2000… Just a healthy pullback into the low 2000s (2010-2035 area) to get on the long wave 3 ride!

  9. mjtplayer says:

    SPY on pace today to do half of yesterday’s volume. That’s right, half.

    QQQ on pace today to do 35% – 40% lighter volume than yesterday.

    I’m in the camp that says this is just a bounce. SPX 2,108 is the .618 retrace, we just tagged it.

  10. Amazing wave symmetry….Battle of the HS’s…IHS vs HS

  11. GYN LAB says:

    Assuming C-wave down, I see a nice 1-2, 1-2 with the 2102 .618 retrace of 2118-2076 (2118 was itself a .786 of 2126-2095… For this scenario to hold this rolls over soon to close red with a gap down on Monday

  12. Hey Torehund, do you recall our conversation back on April 9th about USA is determined to bring back manufacturing to the motherland? Well final news is moving to the front page

  13. gtoptions says:

    Thanks Tony
    Looks like to the Moon from here. Well if SPY 207 holds.
    GL & Good Weekend All ~ You too Newbie, stay away from those cliffs!🙂

  14. Hello to all my hater fan club.

    Enjoy the ride down.

    • CB says:

      LOL..oh well, it was a Hummer driver.. 😛
      .Hopefully it starts going somewhere..cuz right now it’s extremely sideways (aka frustrating)

    • uncle10 says:

      haha. no hate from me newbie. In fact I think you will probably make some money on your trade ( possibly after some more heat) , but only if you don’t get greedy and get out. I have a feeling your targets are way too high. I have a small short and looking to add sometime next week- so when I say good luck I mean it🙂
      #UVXY you can always buy it cheaper

    • CB says:

      you’re must be kidding about those haters, newbie😉
      Everyone here likes you.

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