Monday update

SHORT TERM: gap up then pullback, DOW -42

Overnight the Asian markets ended mixed. Europe opened higher and gained 1.3%. US index futures were higher overnight, and the market gapped up to SPX 2124 at the open. The SPX had closed at 2118 on Friday. By 10am the SPX hit a new high at 2126, and then started to pullback. At 1:30 the SPX hit 2111, then went into a trading range for a couple of hours before hitting 2107 just before a 2109 close.

For the day the SPX/DOW were -0.30%, and the NDX/NAZ were -0.45%. Bonds lost 2 ticks, Crude slipped 30 cents, Gold rallied $23, and the USD was lower. Medium term support remains at the 2085 and 2070 pivots, with resistance at the 2131 and 2198 pivots. Tomorrow: Case-Shiller at 9am, then Consumer confidence and Senate testimony from FED director Van Der Weide at 10am.

The market gapped up at the open today hitting a new all time high at SPX 2126. Then it appears when the Biotechs went into profit taking mode (-4.2%), after a 50% advance in 6 months, the general market started to pullback. Thus far, from the recent SPX 2072 Minute wave ii low, we have observed what appears to be four waves: 2110-2091-2126-2107. With today’s decline to SPX 2107 we now have an overlap, and the rally is beginning to look a bit sloppy. As a result we are raising our caution level to the 2085 pivot range. Short term support is at the 2085 and 2070 pivots, with resistance at the 2131 and 2198 pivots. Short term momentum declined to oversold after a negative divergence. Best to your Tuesday trading!


About tony caldaro

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132 Responses to Monday update

  1. berniebaruch says:

    Baltimore burning to the ground but money from overseas flowing into the safe haven of the United States. VIX sucked out like it had one of those funny talking English guys vacuum cleaners on it

  2. pooch77 says:

    Oh Oh TWTR dropping like a rock into close,leaked earnings?

  3. magnus1234 says:

    The count looks little skewed IMHO. Many overlaps. Looking forward to Tonys update. I’m lost at the moment.

  4. I feel it in my bones. SP going higher. Yellen Yellen. Yes Yellen is coming to down Buy Buy Buy..

    Go pro and Twitter will be up 12 percent after hours with avg earnings, why Yellen Yellen. there will be a one billion order to the buy side on the close, Yellen. I feel it.New closing high today in anticaption.

  5. H D says:

    There is news and data on deck. SPX 2115 is already on the chart though. GL

    • CB says:

      it looks like we now need to test that down-sloping TL to get some +div, right? We’re stuck between the two without any +div yet..
      What do you think, HD, beyond “2115 already on the chart”. Thanks 🙂

      • H D says:

        This time is different? 😉 2105 if 2110 goes

        • CB says:

          Thanks HD. Will keep that in mind. Your numbers are magic 🙂 I am still secretly hoping for a full retest of 2094 if they want my money. Seems like we just need another Iran incident today to establish a solid double bottom.. Whatever it takes, like Mario likes to say 😉

          • Yellen, Yellen. She is the 21st century rock star. Crowd goes wild every time she speaks. Even goes crazy in anticipation of her speaking. Yellen Yellen.

          • CB says:

  ’s still early.. she’s got (G)irl (S)couts working for her.. cleaning up on aisle 5..

            Btw, If anyone has a Yellen GIF,, we’d like to see it 😛

        • CB says:

          OK, today is not THAT day. Btw, if you guys take a look at ur 60 min charts, there was a similar tradable dbl btm . It took 3 days, from apr 14 (2083 low) to apr 17 (re-test @2072 with +D). I am waiting for a similar set-up. It’s going to happen. Not a matter of if, but when. The market has an excellent memory. I do too. The market can go higher in the meantime. I don’t like buying bullchit, though 😉 GL everyone.

  6. fotis2 says:

    Can anyone count any waves? up to now straight up 22 points

  7. IHS patterns some time lead to a HS setups, so keep your eye on the ball

  8. manunidhi21 says:

    this wave looks impulsive so far..does clearing ATH clear the counts with the GDP data amd make it crystal clear like this:)

  9. lunker1 says:

    hmmm the old make up a story to flush the market trick.

  10. rc1269 says:

    Morning Tony, et al

    Quick update on the rates front for y’all: the 2yr TIPS breakeven went straight up from zero at year end to 1.54% today. The market has called the Fed’s bluff – there will be no rate hikes this year. Despite the Fed describing their nature as “temporary”, policymakers will nonetheless beholden themselves to the deflationary power of oil and the USD.

    I vaguely recall somebody mentioning a half year ago that this would happen, but the name escapes me…

    happy trading! -rc

  11. fishonhook says:

    uncountable wild market. Look ate AAPL or VXX for crazy swings , based not on fundamentals , but rumours of the old lady’s words tomorrow . these are CB driven markets . floating on free money.

  12. Lee X says:

    FWIW to anybody here the Daily PP is @ 2108 in ESM
    CL was fun as always with a rumor pop
    I’m posted out and it’s a lovely day

  13. fotis2 says:

    A bit of an overeaction there and back up it goes lining a long on break wish i had caught that bounce but was half asleep as they say you snooze you loose.

  14. mjtplayer says:

    VIX temporarily pushed through the 14 resistance area this a.m., topping at 14.23, but quickly reversed and dropped 100bps in just :30min. Clearly, traders are still very complacent, enough so to still sell/short volatility on even the smallest rallies.

    VIX currently at 13.27 – no fear whatsoever, all is well. The VIX hasn’t tagged the top of the BB in over a month, which is currently in the 15.40 area. If the VIX can rally and stay above the 14 resistance area, the next area of overhead resistance is the 17 area.

  15. s&p is going to green and then bulls are going to get the rugged pulled from under them hello vicious wave 3.

  16. wave 1 at todays low, now wave 2 to 2115 followed by wave 3 down to 2040

  17. gtoptions says:

    Thanks Tony
    3’s, all I see are 3’s. La La La La La 😳

    • Yep, the only tune I’ve hearing too

      • CB says:

        still your IHS re-test, matador,. seems they’re using an alternate neckline today – a slightly angled one.. (?)… why not

        • Yep, IHS back-test so far looking successfully. A break below the RS would invalidate the pattern. Don’t look like it will happen as little Michael will be handing off the mic to Yellen next.

          • CB says:

            The thing is, there is a +d in ES on 60 min , but In cash, we don’t have it (yet) (only on 1min ..hahaha.. NOT funny, right?)
            Ok, so since that neckline is still travelling south-east, and since it makes as much sense to buy single lows as it does to buy into the whole Single-Assassin Theory , I’m thinking the unthinkable right now – that a double-dip would be nice..(?)… Especially if it takes us into the Apr. 20 gap-up area, establishes a decent +div. across multiple time frames and tests the bottom of gto’s awesome channel . Then…clink..we’ll be ready to celebrate granma’s yellen nonsense.
            Crazy, right? Well, it just doesn’t make any sense to chase this crazy train right now.. and 2091 is still sticking out like a sore thumb on the charts.
            May not happen this way, of course. In which, case, I’ll be singing gto’s “La La La La La ” in the foreseeable future 🙂 But it makes sense to me, so it’s possible.. 😉
            Right now they prbly want you to see the oh-so-perfect IHS on 5 min & think it’s going much higher, when in reality it’s prly wave 4 up (little neg d. is already there on the 5 min chart), and the big hit is still coming (unless 2118-2119 is taken out, right? ..) This show is called inducing FOMO (fear of missing out), I guess…strong FOMO …lol
            GL everyone.

          • CB says:

            meant 2094 ,not 2091..

          • CB says:

            from earlier today it only shows the move to 2109

  18. Lee X says:

    I believe ESM just hit its S2 pivot ?

  19. fotis2 says:

    Some pullback geez

  20. manunidhi21 says:

    Namaste Tony!

    iii of 3 till 2085 holds on the charts or abc of 2 now ?

  21. fishonhook says:

    WS is dipping the market to put the kvetsh on bubbe Yellen and remind her who is in charge and not dare talk about rate rises tomorrow.

  22. mjtplayer says:

    Martin Armstrong anticipating a correction in stocks in what would be Tony’s P4. The correction will send money into the bond market as a safe haven, helping to put-in a top in bonds. After the correction in the months ahead, a massive rally into 2017 to end the bull market; Tony’s wave P5.

    • fishonhook says:

      People keep mentioning this guy and his prognostications. However what is his track record? Wasn’t he a gold bull? I must say I haven’t taken the time to google his calls but would be interested in those who follow him giving us a summary of his track record and then his recent calls.

    • stephenk1980 says:

      Never heard of the guy, but the summary you made sounds similar to my own thoughts on the market presently.

    • Given current action, the numbers have shifted slightly from yesterday’s close:

      Buy above 2126.30 with Stop 2104.55
      Sell below 2091.54 with Stop 2113.24

      Long story short, weakly bullish and close to stopping out (if below at EOD)

  23. Excuse my ignorance on Dark Pool topic, but I have a question for the broad. How do/does dark pools affect market volume? I thought Dark Pools only affect “liquidity/order volume” by hide the “liquidity/order volume” but has no affect on the “trade/transaction volume” except for a delay to real-time “trade/transaction volume.” Any input much appreciated, thx

  24. JeffMilano says:

    Is this a day of gap down then up or a gap down and then down. Well my system is saying down, then down. This time the gap down perhaps will have a follow through. But then it is at a support level. Will it break the support. To be honest, hard to tell, but my Mathematical system is saying, YES. The downside will pick up steam and break the support.

  25. fotis2 says:

    It looks like 5 down from 2125-2107 possibly waveA.Daily cci negative close more downside or wave B up today I find it concerning it still has not closed above 2120 on a daily basis or is this the pullback before the Fed?

  26. fishonhook says:


    i think you will have to bite the bullet one of these days and relabel the $SSEC count. I can see AB and now C on the short term count, but that D looks stretched beyond anything reasonable.

    The new blue pointing at 4750 or so, is it there based on a calculated number or …?

  27. mjtplayer says:

    hkloon says:
    April 27, 2015 at 7:59 pm
    Hi MJT, trying to understand, what is the difference btw bearish outside reversal and bearish engulfing candle? Aren’t both trend reversal candle in nature… thx

    Both candles/bars eclipse the prior days’ high and low, making both a HH and LL. But, a bearish outside reversal closes below the prior days low; a bearish engulfing does not – it just “engulfs” the prior days candle.

    Textbook outside bearish daily reversals on the SPX (and SPY), Nasdaq Composite & R2K (and IWM) today. But not the NDX 100 (or QQQ), just engulfing candles.

    In fact, today’s candle on the R2K was so bad it engulfed last weeks entire candle – that’s incredible

  28. Looking at SPX and Russell 2000 on a 10 minute chart I noticed the 89 and 160 EMA lines crossed above the 34 EMA line this afternoon. Could this be a set-up of the death cross in the early stages?
    Good luck to all

    • I’m still watching the SPX Monthly Bearish Butterfly Pattern, over 7years in the making with a tight PRZ, 2139-45 targeting B @ SPX1500, XA x 1.618 = 2139 & BC x 3.618 = 2145, apologies for no charts as I can’t post them in this format from the UK…

  29. hkloon says:

    Is biotech sector or generally healthcare sector considered a growth or cyclical?

  30. Tony, TSLA been putting in quite show lately, looks like the race to 260ish RS is game on

  31. gtoptions says:

    Thanks Tony
    Another SPY Symmetry trade if it holds, otherwise I’m going to have to stop being so bullish. 😉

  32. Neckline of IHS I post this morning is being back tested, below is an updated close up snapshot. Will it hold?

    Here is a close up view of just how wobbly this Major 5 of P3 wave has been. I can the P4 coming real soon

  33. zepfan123 says:

    Still looks like an ugly bag of mixed nuts earning season to me here as far as the broad market launching to major new ATH’s here. I saw lots of folks thinking AAPL was going to pull an AMZN type move today after the bell. Very tough and super selective here.

  34. lunker1 says:

    CD=AB again?
    Last one was 40/41 points maybe this one is 19 = 2107 today’s low

  35. blackjak100 says:

    TC, agree on 4 waves but no overlap yet until 2104. It’s all in the squiggle count and maybe it overlaps right away in the AM. Looks like an expanded flat for wave ii – 2104-2091-2126-2107. Wave iii is longer than wave i so can’t be ED. Must move higher out of gate tomorrow.

    The odd EW site im on a trial with did project a top at 2122-2140 before correcting towards 2085 pivot.

  36. manunidhi21 says:

    Thnx Tony!

    $194B in undeployed cash..why not give to poor shareholders who blvd in you..

    • tony caldaro says:

      They’ll do what they all do.
      Buy back stock and then give that stock away in bonuses

      • fishonhook says:

        How does that help anyone but insiders?
        I am getting more and more cynical about our capitalist system which has moved from a meritocracy to feudalism

        • tony caldaro says:

          new age capitalism
          when you buy shares of a stock you do not own part of the company
          you own a bet on the future price of that company
          they do not share their earnings with stock holders
          they do stock buy backs to raise the price of the stock

        • torehund says:

          Agree With you Fish, and the incident With the Heathrow trader being blamed for the flash crash and probably deported to the US, just tells a story of the big boys wanting to cleanse themself at the expense of a small defenceless trader. It stinks. Just cant wait for the inevitable economical decline and for skeletons then to fall out of the real closet. M. Armstrons primer Movie may do Wonders as the public is already forewarned.

  37. ABchart says:

    Thanks Tony!

    For me:
    SPX: +/-2100 > 2150/70
    CAC: near 5400
    DAX: +/- 12300

    Then down


  38. fotis2 says:

    Thanks Tony back to its old #**!#@ tricky self again!Thought we were out of the woods there for a mo.

  39. Lee X says:

    Thanks Tony

  40. pooch77 says:

    Bio techs same as last year heading i to summer…going to the shitter

  41. mjtplayer says:

    Thanks Tony! Clearly a noticeable bearish reversal today, especially on the SPY & QQQ; daily bearish outside reversals on both. The last time we had a daily bearish outside reversal on the SPY while making a high was 9/19/14. Also had one on 9/04/14. We know what happened over the next 4-6 weeks into mid-Oct.

    • mjtplayer says:

      My bad, just a daily bearish outside reversal on the SPY; the QQQ didn’t close below Friday’s low thanks to the EOD rally, so just a bearish engulfing candle.

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