Friday update

SHORT TERM: growth stock Friday, DOW +21

Overnight the Asian markets lost 0.4%. Europe opened higher and gained 0.4%. US index futures were higher overnight, and at 8:30 Durable goods orders were reported higher: +4.0% v -1.4%. The market gapped up at the open for the fourth time this week, hit SPX 2119, then pulled back to yesterday’s close by 10am at 2113. Then it started to rally. Around 12:30 the SPX hit an all time high at 2121, pulled back to 2116 by 3pm, then closed at 2118.

For the day the SPX/DOW were +0.20% and the NDX/NAZ were +1.00%. Bonds gained 10 ticks, Crude slid 50 cents, Gold dropped $16, and the USD was lower. Medium term support remains at the 2085 and 2070 pivots, with resistance at the 2131 and 2198 pivots. Today the WLEI was reported higher: 49.3% v 48.6%.

The market gapped up at the open, hit SPX 2119, pulled back, then made a new high at 2121. While the rise from SPX 2048, at the beginning of the month, to today’s high has been choppy, the market has nonetheless made new highs. Guess it is time to look at both sides of this chop-fest April. Will review the charts and see what surfaces in the weekend report. Best to your weekend!

MEDIUM TERM: still an uptrend

LONG TERM: bull market


About tony caldaro

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46 Responses to Friday update

  1. sweinv says:

    Hi Tony!
    What is your thinking about DAX correction? Minor 4 or minute 2 in minor 5? Still not a lower low since your minor 4 bottom. I think it still look like minor 4 is in play in som kind of triangle (running triangle). Or is it possible minor 5 finished at 12390 and now major 4?

    It looks like we have a positive divergense in rsi daily.

    Have a nice weekend!
    Greetings from Sweden

  2. Today’s price action still looks corrective to me. The lack of simultaneous new highs across many indexes was quite pronounced today. Yet a sense of underlying strength is still there.

    • torehund says:

      George all interlinks, or continuation patterns are corrective X- Waves(abc up abc Down), and what looks corrective on one timeframe could look impulsive in a larger timeframe, so impulsive and corrective only make sense in the timeframe that one is operating. I just aired the floating C- wave where EW pattern is exhausted on making new Waves, and therefore drifts higher on the same C… Ultrabullish no doubt here.

  3. Mr.C..the Shanghai stock exchange is the latest bubble at 50% over its 200 day moving average…this should pop soon and when it does, do you think it will have any effect on other world markets—especially the US ?

    • tony caldaro says:

      China is probably recovering from its economic malaise over the past few years.
      If you look at the history of the SSEC, you will see it has a tendency to do these sort of ramp ups after building a base. It acts more like a commodity than a stock index.
      No, the SSEC reacts to foreign indices it does not lead.

  4. fishonhook says:

    Lee ate you here to discuss stocks
    I thought you were here to bore us with your baseball opinions
    Sorry I will take note of your wisdom now
    Also I didn’t see your sherriffs badge
    It must have been hidden somewhere on that puffed up chest

    • Lee X says:

      Are u attacking me ?? Hey man the internet is all about freedom !
      I can say whatever I like whenever unless of course I cant pay my internet/data bills then its off to the Library ( no offense T Boys) 😀

      • fishonhook says:

        attacking u?? Every post I make comes with an instant sarcy comment form you inviting me to go to stock twits.

        • Lee X says:

          Every post ? Cmon now you have been belly aching here well since you came here
          I’ll go back to several months of ignoring, my apologies

          • fishonhook says:

            Just trying to balance out the adulation. Only cults reject criticisms.

          • simpleiam says:

            fish, I got news for you. The replies you receive here are far, FAR nicer than any other blogs on the internet, and the criticisms seem to go both ways; you’re not innocent. You might want to consider making an honest effort to learn how to trade and invest, or leave it be. Poop or get off the pot.

      • tommyboys says:


  5. Thx Tony…..looking forward to your weekend update.

    Here is a little something to thing about in the meaning time. On Dec 29th 2014 SPX ath was 2094 and the world literally swear that the next great 100 yard touchdown to the much anticipated 2198 pivot zone was game on. Even the utopia “bullish years end in 5” thingy was being worship. Well here we are 4 month later (1/3 of new year gone by) and the ball has only manage to revisit the 25 yard line for the umpteenth time now. Will we see that 2198 pivot zone touchdown get accomplish before the Half-time break? I’m starting to lean to a strong No. Back on February 25th I comment that IMO new market leaders need to emerge in order to offset current market leaders like aapl’s upcoming potential top of whatever significant degree the current market leader’s may experience. Then over the next two week the leaders when into decline (aapl declined approx. 9%) while SPX decline approx. 4%. Since that decline the leaders went into a sideways coma as did for Mr. Market. Over the past couple of weeks the old market leaders have been popping like popcorn on day of earnings release (beat or miss don’t) only to sputter within a few days afterwards. In a nutshell what I’m seeing thus far are the same old market leaders continuing their lead batter role with not enough new substitute batters stepping up to the batter box.

    Maybe the young leaders are scared of heights

    Jessie Livermore has stated that a market does not culminate in one grand blaze of glory. Neither does it end with a sudden reversal of form. A market can and does often cease to be a bull market long before prices generally begins to break. Warns come when one after another, those stocks which had been the leaders of the market advance have ceased to advance. Their race evidently was run, and that clearly necessitates a change in my trading tactics.

    And before anyone decides to state that the NDX ATH is scream bullish for the Mr Market, ask yourself first if it is bullish to see only 3 out of 107 stocks in NDX to be complete responsible for NDX entire rally today.

  6. torehund says:

    Interpreting M.Armstrong three issues causes inflaton namely
    1) increasing demand.
    2) Destruction of supply.
    3) Loss of confidence in Government and or the value of a currency.

    Number 3 is what we may expect if no natural disasters intervenes, and politicians are currently doing a good job at it…:)

    • torehund says:

      ..tried to post this during trading hours but there was a squrrel obstructing the internet line 🙂

    • tommyboys says:

      Agree with your roll under thesis Tore. Strongest seasonal market month – April – has been a chop fest thus (imho) postponing ignition of next rally. Likely to be ‘buy May’ – not sell – this year contrary to status quo. Time will tell…

      • torehund says:

        seen this c drift before and its a sign of a squeeze, also 2-2-2 is impending something three-ish, worked on this patern for a long time now and I am sure its evolving. Heck nothing says is isnt…

      • torehund says:

        Tommy last year the April/May drifted flat into the summer lulls, this may happen this year too, but then fall Will be explosive…

  7. mjtplayer says:

    At today’s new incremental ATH, the SPX was sporting a -div on the hourly, daily, weekly and monthly time frames. Also, the SPY just printed it’s single lowest volume day of 2015 today, just 60m shares traded, as we’re making new ATH’s. Incredible. Looks and feels like a last ditch push higher by the bulls, trying to print new ATH’s, knowing the bears won’t go short heading into the Fed meeting.

    Doesn’t look bullish to me, looks more like a false breakout or a double-top. We’ll see….

    • Truth is Banksters choose the market direction and push it wherever they want it. You are either on the right side of their coattails or not. Banksters with freshly printed federal reserve notes run the show.

      • torehund says:

        no, the banks are leaving currency in favor of assets as they see governments are crumbeling. The banks are opportunistic, not acting out of an agenda, they want to survive financially like you and me.

  8. fishonhook says:

    New count please!

    • Lee X says:

      “While the rise from SPX 2048, at the beginning of the month, to today’s high has been choppy, the market has nonetheless made new highs. Guess it is time to look at both sides of this chop-fest April. Will review the charts and see what surfaces in the weekend report”
      He wrote this today right up there ^^^^^^ , don’t you like to read ? I like to read.
      Have you checked out Stock Twits yet ? It’s awesome !

  9. fotis2 says:

    Thanks Tony have a nice weekend.

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