Thursday update

SHORT TERM: gap down opening then rally, DOW +20

Overnight the Asian markets lost 0.2%. Europe opened higher but lost 0.5%. US index futures were lower overnight, and at 8:30 weekly Jobless claims were reported higher: 295k v 294k. Then just before the open Congressional testimony from FED director Hunter: The market gapped down at the open to SPX 2103, then rebounded to 2110 by 10am. Also at 10am Existing home sales were reported lower: 481k v 543k. The market then pulled back to SPX 2104 by 10:30, and then started to rally. The rally continued until just past 3pm when the SPX hit its all time high at 2120. After that the market pulled back to close at SPX 2113.

For the day the SPX/DOW were +0.20%, and the NDX/NAZ were +0.40%. Bonds gained 8 ticks, Crude rallied $1.35, Gold rose $8, and the USD was lower. Medium term support remains at the 2085 and 2070 pivots, with resistance at the 2131 and 2198 pivots. Tomorrow: Durable goods orders at 8:30.

The market gapped down at the open today after three successive gap up openings this week. The market made the low for the day at the open, SPX 2103, bounced around, then rallied to the all time high at 2120. The potential B wave triangle posted yesterday, was quickly eliminated when the SPX cleared resistance at 2112/2115. With the NDX/NAZ making new uptrend highs, it appears this uptrend may be extending. We still consider the rally from SPX 2046 in mid-March to be quite choppy and not impulsive looking. However, some within our group have suggested a failed Minor 2 flat at SPX 2046. Then a leading diagonal advance: 2089-2048-2108-2083-2012 for Minute i of Minor wave 3 , a Minute ii pullback to SPX 2073, and Minute iii underway now. Possible. If this market can extend higher tomorrow, the SPX 2100, DOW 18,000 and NDX 5,000 overhead resistance may finally have been broken. Short term support is at SPX 2112/2115 and the 2085 pivot, with resistance at SPX 2120 and the 2131 pivot. Short term momentum hit quite overbought at today’s high then dipped to near neutral into the close. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: still an uptrend

LONG TERM: bull market


About tony caldaro

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131 Responses to Thursday update

  1. Market will close firm today.

    Now. on Monday during pre out of market hours, if SPX rises by 12 points to touch 2132, then it is Blind sell, All indices are Sell when PSX touches 2132. For decent fall, please pray for SPX 2132 during pre-market.

    As per model, DAX on sell targeting 10314, FTSE neutral but sell below 7021 and as of yesterday’s close, SPX on Buy and INDU on Buy.

    • reddragonleo says:

      Very unlikely to give the bears a perfect entry like opening around 2132 SPX on Monday morning. SkyNet will most likely drop the market Monday to lure in some bears to squeeze up to 2132 later in the week after the FOMC meeting. Then they will drop it.

  2. Market is topping, I’m a buyer at 1200 spx

    • Dead mountain climber bounce waaay before that…lol

    • Primary 1 ended May 2 2011, maybe a blow of top the next 4 or 5 trading days and P3 tops 5-1-2014.
      I have no idea, Have a nice weekend all

    • sold 2/3 of my remaining UPRO at $144, converted to UVXY at $9.88. now I’m 3/4 out of UPRO and 3/4 into UVXY at $9.95 cost-basis. Pool and fence are finished; need UVXY to net a 25+% gain to get some awesome landscaping done….think tropical, palms, tiki hut, etc 😃

      • berniebaruch says:

        Palms are a nice touch. Maybe a built in Keg around the pool

        • was thinking of one of those lil keg fridges on the deck, under the palapa. I’m the only one in the house that drinks beer, so maybe a wine fridge instead… regarding the market, I was very tempted to buy SQQQ today because of the NAZ relative outperformance this year (and especially today) but UVXY is a better bet given the current VIX. I don’t expect to be a Bear for very long, 10-15 trading days at the most. GLTA

    • berniebaruch says:

      it may get there in the next 3 years. I hope you have the funds to take advantage of it.

  3. simpleiam says:

    No 3 post limit. All opinions welcomed, but be nice or Mod will whack you.
    Markets page/1st headline under World Markets.

  4. wonder were this market would be if Netflix, google, amazon would of actually beat estimates.

  5. Jack Zhu says:

    Nasdaq goes to 5220+ by the end of May.
    Yes, you hear it from here first.
    And, we might already see the low of 2014, if Dow can catch up soon.

    Trust simple TA, not wave count( no disrespect to anyone).

  6. We got the all time highs yesterday as expected, despite the constant crash calls by newbies and amateur traders. Those same traders are now bullish. Well, you know the drill here folks. Should fill the gap @ 2080 by next week. Thereafter it should be range bound until Mid May and then Tony’s C will come by the end of May. 2040 sounds about right. To bad nobody saw a bullish count April 1st. The fear and constant top calling was an easy trade for me.

    Sadly the index’s are showing very weak here in an historically strong month. Given this obvious situation and the fact the Naz is almost back to all time highs, I’m not convinced the index can get past 2138 by July or even past 5132 on the NAZ. Is this year the end of the Great Bull? Looks plausible but Damn, calling tops I will leave to newbie traders and amateur top callers.

    Enjoy the chop, chop….It’s here to stay……

  7. gtoptions says:

    SPY ~ Bearish Deep Crab ~ This is more bullish before its bearish.
    It’s Friday, Killing time.😉

    • mjtplayer says:

      Could be, but could also be a butterfly that tops here in this area. We’ll see…

      Another 2.5% higher on the SPX might be tough considering the .COMP is just 0.75% away from the March 2000 ATH at 5,132.52

      • gtoptions says:

        Just a possibility. Although if the SPX continues higher without overlapping 2110 in the next few days, the probabilities of this pattern working out increase. GL

    • Nice chart GTO, another pattern to add to one of my 3 probable targets before the next down trend reversal of significant degree. My targets 3 targets are as follow;
      2150 (+/-5 pts) (40% Probability)
      2175 (+/-5 pts) (40% Probability)
      2131 (+/-5 pts) (20% Probability)

      I will do my best over the week to explain the “merits” behind each of these targets.

      • gtoptions says:

        Thx Matador, look forward to your target commentary.
        One issue I have on this breakout on the SPX having any legs is the muted Relative Strength on the Weekly charts, at about 63 right now. Although a strong close and follow through next week can bring that level over 65 or 70, time will tell. GL and enjoy

  8. stephenk1980 says:

    Out of my longs, even though there’s probably a few more points left in it, the air’s getting thin up here. Now it gets exciting.

  9. mjtplayer says:

    Good volume in the QQQ’s yesterday. Volume to is OK, lighter than yesterday but better than we’ve been averaging lately.

    Volume on the SPY was OK yesterday, not great and not as good as the QQQ’s, but OK. Volume sucks today on the SPY’s, extremely light.

  10. berniebaruch says:

    I would be curious of the board’s opinion
    2105 or 2125 first?
    newby, we know your answer so we will put the count at 2105 (1), 2125 (0)

  11. gtoptions says:

    Thanks Tony
    SPX ~ 2110 key overlap level I’m watching.
    3 or 5 waves is the Question?
    GL & Good Weekend All

    • mjtplayer says:

      Greek 2yr notes traded over 26% overnight; now at 25.70% – new highs.

      Greece CDS continues to widen, now at 3,239.88 – that means it costs $3,239,880 to insure $10m of Greek debt for 5 years. That’s insane, extremely high risk of default, again…

      I stand by my opinion that Greece will default, it’s a question of when, not if. I also stand by my statement that Greece should’ve defaulted back in 2010 or 2011. 4/5 years later, after a 25% drop in GDP and a multi-year depression, they still in the same situation – an unsustainable high debt load can’t can’t possibly continue to service. What a waste, I feel bad for the greek people…

      • torehund says:

        Dont think Merkel Will permit a default, it Will be too tempting for the rest of the pigs to follow. Still think bondholders throughout the Euro zone Will be paid in full at the expense of the value of the Euro.

      • As I ve said Tuesday, the week of may 11-16 is the time for a probable default/separation from the EU.Big payment due on the 11th and from what I ve read by a self described expert on this…predicts 100% Greece leaving the EU on May 16th.If true, some short term market carnage should be occurring shortly before as this gets factored in.I ll be lightening up considerably around May 2nd.Good luck to all.

        • mjtplayer says:

          Greece has a 750m Euro debt payment due the IMF on May 12th. Finance ministers meeting on May 11th to discuss Greece’s “progress” in their reforms. We’ll see…

          Greece also has a smaller payment due on May 1st, everybody expecting Greece to make that payment, but May 12th payment is a question. if Merkel wants them to stay, they will have to folk over more money – lend Greece more money that they will never pay back at sub market rates so that they can pay interest on other debt, and around and around we go.

          • Very possible in that time frame “it”finally hits the fan.Right now markets are in lala land, but that should wake them up a little if it happens…plus as said…fear of other countries leaving.Have a good weekend everyone.

  12. Page says:

    Market will make significant pullback/correction and it will start today.

    • reddragonleo says:

      Is that from your green crystal ball Page? If so, can I buy one from you? Love to see you right as I’m a bear at heart but I don’t think Ms. Yellen will allow this to happen today. When we make a double top on the Nasdaq from March 24, 2000 (111.93 on the QQQ) then she “might” allow the market to drop a little.

      • fishonhook says:

        Well Tony hasn’t given up. He has been moving that little B up for the last 40 points or more.

        • Lee X says:

          He also mocks my recently beloved Chicago Cubs while his Cards are sputtering in 1 st place with hacks who hit 2 grand slams in one game all while enjoying 70 degree days and 40 degree nights down in the Heartland.
          Fish if I were you I’d head over to Stock twits where the real talent is.

      • Page says:

        Yes my green crystal ball is flashing red🙂

  13. gasman88 says:

    Ready…. lights, camera, action…
    The s&p500 breakout that everybody’s been waiting for is finally here. After months of sideways consolidation we are finally ready to move higher??
    Bulls are salivating, last year’s pattern is getting repeated, summer rally is about the start?

    ..and the watched kettle always boils ??

  14. berniebaruch says:

    Important first hour: Opens up and moves to new highs or reverses and doesn’t leave a gap.
    Friday’s are generally positive days. Maybe a reversal would be the biggest surprise.

  15. reddragonleo says:


    The comment you made about the service you joined on a trial subscription will probably be issuing a sell alert either today or Monday if they see the same thing in the charts I do. While today is Friday and they usually keep the market up on Fridays the charts tell me we could rollover today.

    Naturally that can be (and commonly is) manipulated, if they aren’t then we could drop to that 2085 area by Monday according the chart setup. Possibly one more wave up early today and then down? Don’t know but charts suggest a move down… whether Ms. Yellen allows it or not isn’t know?

  16. Durable goods minus airplanes DOWN .5%
    Comcast/Time Warner deal goes Pfffft!!!!
    Stock futures rise even higher after said news items.
    Have to say it still blows my mind to see the market react this way to bad news…but thats the way it is now.Amazing.

  17. JeffMilano says:

    The mkt broke up, not decicevely but in the same manner of this upswing. So it is, “b” or iii or a i of 3, it has not finished. When it does finish, we are going to label it and the Whole pattern will be clear. Even my computerized system is scritching its cyber head, but then it was made by me and I am scratching. But still pointing down. Peter Brand in his book mentioned that olny 30 to 35% of his trades are successfull, so if you have a small loss should have closed the position and just watch.

  18. fotis2 says:

    Maybe some profit taking today wouldn’t stick my neck out though lest it gets chopped off but had I some longs from waay back this would definitely be the place to sell and head for the mountains for the rest of the year..sell in May..and go far away

    • tommyboys says:

      Disagree. After this past 4-5 month long consolidation look for explosive action this summer. Contrary to the mantra – and mark these words – this will be a May to ‘buy and stay’…

      • tommyboys says:

        Still looking for someone to take my Dow 19k by Memorial Day gentleman’s bet ✈️

        • Happy to take that bet , I have seen your stocks picks and knowledge of markets . I would like to add a sweetener . I win , you can never bring up the fear/greed index, never print sophomoric Market Watch articles , and you learn technicals.

          • uncle10 says:

            Hey Dark. I haven’t been keeping up much with the blog but do check in and skim for my favs sometimes. Last I heard from you a while back you were long vol and short ibb. I prolly missed your post about getting stopped out or maybe you just didn’t post it? You are not still long vol and short ibb are u??? thx

          • uncle10 says:

            that fear/greed index has worked every time….. 😉

          • tommyboys says:

            Cool we’re on Dark😢 – check back 5/31

          • tommyboys says:

            His positions fried. Sounds strangely bitter. Don’t get bitter get better – too long in the dark – step into and see the light 😎

          • Uncle , it’s ok to stutter but not when you are asking a question. A simple, Dark , you still short bio would have been cool. I let you into my private
            twitter – you know my performance. Sorry , I only let 88 people in ( lucky number ) there is a waiting list of 2800 . As you know , i give real price and time and show performance.

            Peace – Hope you are doing well

            Darkness @SirDarkness · Mar 18

            Darkness @SirDarkness · Mar 18
            wti nice pos div

            Darkness @SirDarkness · Mar 19
            @SirDarkness Lesson learned

            Darkness @SirDarkness · Mar 19
            Itching poison ivy and averaging down on a position has the same effect , it usually compounds problems and satisfies the ego ! thxbio’s

            Darkness @SirDarkness · Mar 19
            @SirDarkness bios out , big hit .

            Darkness @SirDarkness · Mar 19
            Bot more $gold 71.08 avg up from 66.5

          • Tboys, I am not bitter. I hope you are right. If so, my long portfolio will increase by 1.3885 mill. I do math. With that being said, statistics are not on your side.Do you remember the statistical study I did on the Big up / Big Down guy last fall ? The odds of you winning this bet is below 10%. Good luck and I hope you win

          • uncle10 says:

            sir darkness. you seem like a fine fellow and you obviously have a bunch of $. not sure why you like to call people out and or be rude? I doubt you get any thing from it. Instead just gives us some freebies sometimes and feel good about it.
            Also curious why you changed your name? I liked the other one much better?
            Om Shanti Om

        • Hey TB – I would also like to take you up on that gentlemen bet. Are we game.

        • tommyboys says:
          April 24, 2015 at 9:35 am
          Cool we’re on Dark😢 – check back 5/31

          It seems that your ability to read a calendar is like your ability to read /understand ES futures. Hint, Memorial Day is 5/24 . Your bet expires @ 4p.m on 5/22 . Sorry about adding
          another 9 days of decay to your bet.

          • tommyboys says:

            Dude you have no clue about me or what I do and it’ll stay that way – I am NOT playing options – been there done that – you’re right on Memorial Day however 5/24 – original bet was end of May but whatever thats fine. Please post something intellectually stimulating when you get a chance.

            Cool Matador…we’ll see.

          • tommyboys says:

            BTW I win either way as well – its the internet 😜

      • robnaardin says:

        Agree. Couple months down the road, one of your skew days will occur.

  19. stephenk1980 says:

    New high today, but it won’t last long.

  20. fotis2 says:

    I commented some time ago on the Greek issue and Tony wisely suggested I focus on what the newly elected goverment is doing rather than what they are saying.Up to now ALL their actions are pointing to one thing ie:A new bailout deal..This came to mind when I read CB’s post “Seperate your thoughts from the situation which is always neutral”.. A great site and a plethora of intelligent info on a daily basis many thanks to everyone and specifically Tony.

  21. fishonhook says:

    It seems like the market hasn’t heard about OEW.
    And it positively sticks it’s tongue out at EWI

  22. joecthetruthteller says:

    Long the S&P as of yesterday……

  23. mjtplayer says:

    The action in the SPX over the past 3 weeks still looks identical to the action from mid Nov to early Dec. If it holds true, today could have been the high in the SPX – resembling Dec 5th. If so, we open flat or higher tomorrow, but do not eclipse today’s high and begin to roll over – closing in the red tomorrow. If the pattern continues to hold true, the next 2 weeks look ugly down…

    Another way to look at the S&P, a bearish butterfly pattern:

  24. pimacanyon says:

    Hello Tony,

    Regarding the Leading Diagonal (LD) you mentioned: Isn’t the first subwave (wave a) of a diagonal (either LD or ED) supposed to be the longest, both in terms of time and price? If so, then this LD doesn’t not fit from that perspective.

  25. zedozpipozzz says:

    Hi Tony
    Do you think that orange wave b must be at 2120 of today ?
    Thank you Tony

  26. fotis2 says:

    Tony thanks!Disappointing close but tmrw another day another trade lets see starting to look like a Kangaroo tail on the daily.GL to all.

  27. dsoble2014 says:

    So we set a new nominal high by less than a point and everyone is bullish…AGAIN. Anyone notice we dropped 8 points into the close as in 2112. I guess no one has ever heard of a false breakout. Must not be in the lexicon of OEW.

    • CB says:

      If you read carefully, the summary says, “Possible.” …and “overhead resistance MAY (emphasis added) finally have been broken.”
      You, on the other hand, are saying: “everyone is bullish ….”I guess no one has ever heard of”…….”Must not be in the lexicon”..

      My, oh my, how can you be so sure of all that ?

      Here’s some good advice from Eckhart Tolle :” Be aware of the thoughts you are thinking. Separate them from the situation, which is always neutral, which always is as it is.”
      GL with that.

      • CB, That is how all Ellioticians work; “may”, “possible”, “likely”.

        If something works, they say “we said so..” in our report dated XYZ.

        • CB says:

          Shrihas, that’s a bit unfair, no? Markets are about uncertainty….everyone has to deal with it. Sometimes things are clearer, sometimes they are quite fuzzy and we need to pause and think some more about what’s unfolding..
          ” If you want a guarantee, buy a toaster.” right? — (Clint Eastwood🙂

          Thanks Tony.

    • jamesbondman says:

      Ahh relax…..Its ok to be bullish every once in a while…

    • soulsurfer says:

      no many are still bearish…

  28. zepfan123 says:

    Well we got close to a new SPX ATH close there for a while..but no cigar.-Impossible to “read” today as a sure signal that a break out to weeks and weeks of new highs coming starting tomorrow or Monday,or that today was the last shot at a new high attempt before a real pullback.- As usual,most will see it the way they want to,but I say the jury is still out on a true break-out direction.

  29. Lee X says:

    Hey gto !

    1907 1908 2015 !!!

  30. M1 says:

    Thanks Tony

  31. mike7x says:

    Thanks Tony. Now the REAL game has started.😉

  32. CB says:

    Thanks Tony. Wow, what a difference a day makes….lol..

  33. Lee X says:

    Thx Tony !

  34. gtoptions says:

    Thanks Tony
    Looks like more 3’s than 5’s, but that’s just me. Trade it higher until it breaks.😉

  35. sweinv says:

    Thank you Tony!
    What do you think about DAX? It looks like a running triangle finished the long minor 4.

  36. Lee X says:

    Still looks like a bunch of A B C’s to me …you’re welcome longs ;P
    “We still consider the rally from SPX 2046 in mid-March to be quite choppy and not impulsive looking. However, some within our group have suggested a failed Minor 2 flat at SPX 2046. Then a leading diagonal advance: 2089-2048-2108-2083-2012 for Minute i of Minor wave 3 , a Minute ii pullback to SPX 2073, and Minute iii underway now. Possible”

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