Wednesday update

SHORT TERM: gap up opening again, DOW +88

Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.7%. Europe opened higher but lost 0.2%. US index futures were higher overnight, and at 9am the FHFA was reported higher: +5.4% v +5.1%. The market gapped up at the open for the third day in a row, hit SPX 2102, and then immediately to pullback. At 10am Existing home sales were reported higher: 5.19mn v 4.89mn. The SPX hit 2091 just past 10am and then started to rally. Nearing 3:30 the SPX hit 2110, then backed off the 2106 before closing at 2108.

For the day the SPX/DOW were +0.50%, and the NDX/NAZ were +0.50%. Bonds lost 19 ticks, Crude slipped 30 cents, Gold dropped $15, and the USD was lower too. Medium term support remains at the 2085 and 2070 pivots, with resistance at the 2131 and 2198 pivots. Tomorrow: weekly Jobless claims at 8:30, Congressional testimony from FED director Hunter at 9:15, then New home sales at 10am.

The market gapped up at the open today, and just like yesterday the opening was immediately sold. While yesterday’s pullback did not get back to opening levels, today’s turned right around and hit yesterday’s opening high at SPX 2110. After weeks of choppy patterns we took at look at other potential counts after yesterday’s close. Today we posted one on the hourly chart, suggesting SPX 2040 ended an A wave, and a triangular B wave has been underway for the past few weeks. Should this be correct, the B wave should be topping quite soon and a C wave down into the SPX 2040’s should follow. There are other counts. But this looked the most obvious at the moment. We also ended the day with the SPX over 2100, the DOW over 18000, and the NAZ over 5000. The previous times this has occurred the market sold off. Short term support is at the 2085 and 2070 pivots, with resistance at SPX 2112/2115 and SPX 2120. Short term momentum hit quite overbought today during the rally. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: still an uptrend

LONG TERM: bull market


About tony caldaro

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122 Responses to Wednesday update

  1. sloop says:

    I see some st resistance in the 2120,s

  2. JeffMilano says:

    Well in the morning it kept on its range, then after it broke that range. It went strait up. Mkts are that way. Now the count will change. But the mkt kept on telling us something with the morning gaps. The mkt has its languange we just need to listen. // JUST LISTEN.

  3. berniebaruch says:

    I know I am going to make a comment that the “news doesn’t matter crowd” will make unglued but I am currently surprised by the overall complacency in the market. I have been involved in markets like most here for a long time, 3 decades. Good trades and bad trades. More good than bad. Honestly confused with the past month like most here (can’t see how you can’t be), recognize it is tough to be short against “the man” and like most everyone, recognize that this thing will end badly at some point in our future but don’t have any of tomorrow’s newspapers.

    That said, I believe we will wake up one morning and the world is not going to be the same as when we went to bed. Therefore, I have been writing calls and doing more hedging and buying some disaster puts than usual lately. I know the market climbs all walls of worry but the vix at such low levels is truly amazing to me.

    Not bullish or bearish but confused.

    Discuss among yourselves.

  4. fotis2 says:

    Well if it doesnt close above 2120 today I suspect the move was just shorts no buying.

  5. sloop says:

    the market is reacting to the last 3rd wave down forecast as it has for the previous umpteen times,yet…

  6. fishonhook says:

    time to dust off another alternate count.

  7. manunidhi21 says:

    Tony !
    I think charts need to be updated..
    is triangular B invalid now ?

  8. mjtplayer says:

    Tony – with today’s move higher, a bearish butterfly pattern would work much better than a triangle. The DOW is clearly sporting a triangle.

  9. Bulls get sucker punched two days in a row. Yesterday futures down 14 market rallies/ today down 7 and up 10 now. Congratulations bulls. I felt that one.

  10. alexhartley1 says:

    Hi Tony – from your oil chart am I correct to believe that you and your team think the oil bear market is over (given the C wave bottom marked blue)? Thanks

  11. berniebaruch says:

    newby, If you sell some of your uvxy, it will go up.

    • sold 1/4 of my UPRO here (cost basis $119) at $142.90 and put the proceeds to work in UVXY @ $10.10. at S&P 2,120 I’ll convert 2/3 of my remaining UPRO to UVXY high-$9s. Finally, at S&P 2,135 I’ll sell my remaining UPRO and convert to UVXY for a full UVXY position with a cost basis around $9.70. We’re finally going to get the long awaited C Wave, target 1,973-2,019 soon. Old adage about a broken clock being right twice a day… it’ll be a quick ride on “Newbie’s Pain Train.” I expect it to be short-lived as the markets should bounce to resume the uptrend before Memorial Day. Looking for 25-30% gains minimum on UVXY trade.

      • Mr. Market, I never thought Id say this but I like your style! One issue, we may never see some of your higher targets 2120 -2135… Also you may sell uvxy to soon, I see uvxy going much higher than 25-30%. Best of luck.

  12. fotis2 says:

    Short squeeze?

    • mjtplayer says:

      Yes, running the short stops, typical action heading into a Fed meeting. I’ve learned many times, the hard way unfortunately, never be short into a Fed meeting. That said, the market typically tops around a Fed meeting, either the day of or the next day

      • fotis2 says:

        Ok maybe we get a chance to short after Fed that volume is making me paranoid monthly Techs looking downbeat,weekly mixed bag, daily CCI must close back inside for a decent short.

      • Noting that in January it was actually the Thursday before the Fed meeting. In March it was the lows at 2040/2041 three straight days that were the Wednesday-Friday before the Fed meeting.

    • robnaardin says:

      Cubbies Collapse?

      • Lee X says:

        Dude quite the contrary , Look at the internals as these kids have a whole can of fight in em. This isnt ur Fathers/Grandfathers/greatgrandfathers/great great grandfathers Cubs anymore

  13. 7dayyss says:

    Their it goes!

  14. manunidhi21 says:

    Namaste Tony!
    Interest rate decision on 29th..
    What are u expecting ?

    Also, do you think market will be range bound till then ?

  15. mjtplayer says:

    Another boring day with low volume, same story over the past few days. All eyes on the Fed next Wed, looks like the market is waiting for the Fed too. Earnings, economic data, news – nothing matters but the Fed.

  16. fishonhook says:

    The market needs a catalyst to drop otherwise it will grind higher on ZIRP and CB money. Not just a minor catalyst but a big one.

    Greece was only a temporary blip today to be bought.

    China, which Tony says is still in a correction even after more than doubling, has been surging even as their PMI came in the worst for over a year and as two large companies went BK. Seems like CB funds trumps everything.

  17. gtoptions says:

    Thanks Tony
    SPY/SPX ~ Overhead Fib resistance is substantial. Could see a slight HH, to set up hourly -/div. Or it could gap up over resistance.
    GL All

  18. zepfan123 says:

    Very mixed bag here. I see a few pockets of strength..but you’ve got a key Dow stock MMM with an earnings miss down 6 dollars….the SOX index down 15…the COMP and Transports still red..etc,etc. I think the odds of this market running up to new highs soon is pretty low actually.- We may just stay in this SPX range of 2110 to 2070 for awhile longer…although I’d love to be wrong about that and see SPX 2040 next week.

    • I think the market is determined to make new highs. Im short contemplating covering. 6 7 8 9 trys to get over 2011 eventually it will. Hope your right and Im wrong like to see 2088 today

      • zepfan123 says:

        Big fight going on here for sure. I’ll say this..since were above the Dow 18K,COMP 5000,SPX 2100 combo at the moment..the ball is in the long/bull case scenario court.

      • stephenk1980 says:

        My 2p is to cover so that you’ll have more money by the end of the week to add to your short positions. The SPX really wants to make a new ATH and I think it will.

        I am long at the moment.

    • tommyboys says:

      Seeing bullish rotation. Market likely to bust out of this range higher this week – Monday latest.

  19. H D says:

    I’m testing a new volcano indicator, when nothing else works…..

  20. European Bears are destroying all good work by American Bulls for last few weeks. Everyday, morning, American bulls come with enthusiasm and take SPX up at the rate of 2 point per hour and this European bears are taking it down at the rate 2.2 per hour.

    Good news for bears is, last two weeks are bullish during this period of year and as per historical patterns this year is exceptionally bullish during last two weeks, …and last two weeks index has not moved much. Greece is keeping lid on enthusiasm is a good news. Hope Greece problem hangs for a year, as once it drags, bulls will lose all hopes..

    • stephenk1980 says:

      Yup, bears are about to start raking it in. There looks to me to be very little time left before the plug is pulled. Pity most of the bears have given up now, but that’s always the way it’s done.

  21. fotis2 says:

    The guy supposedly made millions(whereabouts unknown) with an off the shelf regular laptop but he still lives with his parents?I particularly like the ref:”He sold the top and bought the bottom” incriminating evidence indeed.Gaping holes all over this one..

  22. Thanks tony.

    Everyone keeps saying this market is about to crash, what a load of crap.

    Have a look at this guy from the US, his calls on the market have been killer and rediculously accurate ==>

    He is saying we are about to ROCKET higher on the stock market!

    And to think I listened to those dummies from CNBC say the EARNINGS season was gunna be HORRIFIC!!! those buggers….I have been had yet again!! Pack of liars….pissed me off!

  23. gtoptions says:

    Thanks Tony
    Is that like a Bermuda Triangle. That would explain all the conspiracy theory talk. 😉
    Just so those theorist don’t get all worked up, I pulled an order for 2000 SPY shares at the close, that would account for the mini flash crash. (jk sec) LOL

  24. mjtplayer says:

    Bad day for bonds, TLT down $2 to $127.70. $126 is VERY important support, below that and the red flags go up – big time. Below $123 in the TLT and it’s Katie, bar the door

  25. M1 says:

    Thanks Tony

  26. Trannys seem to have found a bottom that could push us higher.. lets see if they can close above 8900 as a start.. appears that the masters of the universe want to slaughter the bears before the running of the bulls.. my take is we likely head higher and take out bear stops before we head down.. typically the train leaves the station with as few on board as possible..leaving aside TA, I don’t think we have reached a point where everyone one is euphoric… everyone is bearish and when the boat is too full on side.. my experience the opposite happens.. for now wash rinse repeat till 2039/or 2119 is taken out..

  27. blackjak100 says:

    Just wanted to share this since I found it pretty interesting. I’m on a paid trial membership (not disclosing site yet) with a EW site. It’s not your normal EW site as I found out most everything is labeled WXY or ABC. They believe the market moves in 3 waves 90% of the time. They believe you buy/sell in 3,7, and 11 wave swings in direction of larger trend. There is quite the learning to do but all within the site. Longer term, they do believe the market is impulsing in an ED from 1820 and we are currently in wave iii.

    Anyhow, I’ve been on it 2 days and I made one option trade via their SPX/ES mapping this AM (mapping said to buy 2086-2091). I’m up over 40% at the close. They also had gold falling decent today which turned out to be correct. That’s not my point as 1 good trade doesn’t mean crap. My point is to share their short term SPX mapping. They believe SPX will top 2122-2140 before correcting to 2085 pivot. It’s odd because the $SPX mapping says nothing about a triangle. GL and Cheers!

    • fionamargaret says:

      ….very interesting BJ…even if you find out they are totally wrong, you are privy to someone else’s ideas (which of course makes you question yours).

      • blackjak100 says:

        It’s very interesting as they use traditional TA along with a proprietary pivot system to help determine when a wave is over. They also use fib extensions to aid in entry/exit. They gave a 5pt ES range yesterday to buy and it was nailed before market open. I’m intrigued so far, but it’s pretty expensive to subscribe. I’ll wait and see if I profit in the 2 week trial period before deciding. I’ve been stuck in a range the last month like most traders so just trying to generate some cash flow.

    • mwoodcoc2000 says:

      I know precisely the site you refer to 🙂 i joined them shortly about a year ago but due to my own circumstances found i missed most trades due to lack of screen time. im now using daily charts and mostly just using support/resistance and stop hunts to give me fire and forget type of positions i can hold onto. Its more of a hobby for me, and profitable but no where near where id like it..

      aside from that; if you have a fair bit of screen time i reckon the gang on your site do a smashing job and would get you trading profitably and learning. one slight gripe was that you can be a fully paid up member but (at the time anyway) needed to pay up again for videos that you really need to watch if you want to learn their methods..

      they have been operating for some time and appear to me the real deal..Not to take anything away from Tony obviously as he is a master of what he does and extremely generous with his knowledge.

    • would that be wave pattern traders ?

    • would that be wave pattern traders ?

  28. zepfan123 says:

    Friday down 280..Monday up 208…Tuesday down 85….today up 88. Net/net..we’re slightly down over the last 4 days…but lets call it a draw. Unless we’re up triple digits both tomorrow and Friday and closing up well over new All time highs,which granted is only about 250 pts higher… by Fridays might be time to quit labeling ones-self a mega bull or mega bear for a while. DJIA 18,288.63 is the ATH closing made on March 2,2015. – It’s 2117.39 for the SPX also on Mar 2nd. -Can’t wait to see what the action is tomorrow.

  29. fishonhook says:

    Well the bear boat is sinking. Lots in it Sybin, Astrofib, Jobass even our previous bulls jumped in, and of course Tony’s C is constantly being put off from a higher and higher B.

    that is what this market does. The action convinces people that the big crash is coming and then on a dime up it goes. Nothing to do with the CB buying I am sure.

    • zepfan123 says:

      Well I’m not looking at this level,at this point in time as bear boat..or a bull boat. Even a drop back down to the Oct lows of SPX 1820(ish) wouldn’t technically mean all that much if one is a big picture bear. But I’m only thinking out as far as the next 4 to 6 weeks max here for index trading purposes But that said..if we rocket up to major new ATH closes by next Monday,or sooner,then we probably really did make a long term low recently in the SPX 2080 zone. Personally I wanted to see this go back to SPX 2040 soon,but I can see that may not happen now. Lets see if those who want SPX 2150 this week get it..or not. 🙂

    • robnaardin says:

      Weekly close above 2100, and I’d guess the bull train to 2200 is underway without a 2040 false breakdown occurring

    • joecthetruthteller says:


      LOL – so true!

  30. ABchart says:

    Hello everyone! Thanks Tony for the update.

    SPX: immediate support at 2100, possible an ATH tomorrow @ 2125/30 before +/-2050 (7/8 sessions), and 2125/30 again, may be 2140/50.

    DAX: 12050/100 tomorrow before 11400/500 (7/8 sessions), and 12100/200.

    CAC: 5300 tomorrow before 5100 (7/8 sessions) and 5300 again.

    USD: will possibly consolidate some (0.92?)

    Euro: starts giving a laborious rebound signal towards 1.15


    • cmucha68 says:

      Again and again these never ending crash calls. The trend is up and not even the stars or time ratios can do something about it.

      • fionamargaret says:

        ..harsh cmucha68 – I know you can be nice x.
        Gerald provides a different perspective – all ideas count to provide the thought mish-mash from where we make decisions.

        Where is rabbitt??Please check in or we will consider building the pyramid was too much. x

  31. mike7x says:

    Thanks Tony. “We also ended the day with the SPX over 2100, the DOW over 18000, and the NAZ over 5000. The previous times this has occurred the market sold off.” Are the markets just playing with us? Speaking of playing. Can the Nationals make it two in a row? Very windy today. 😉

  32. JeffMilano says:

    Thanks Tony, again my software is showing a sell, however could it be that this non action could go on for few more days. If it does is it positive or negative for the mkt.

  33. jamesbondman says:

    Thanks Tony……..It was good to see the NDX appearing to break up today…….one to watch IMHO………

  34. reddragonleo says:

    If anyone believes that guy in the UK caused the flash crash from his home I’ve got some ocean front property for sale in Kansas, and I’ll let you have it for dirty cheap!

    • torehund says:

      Red, thats funny, please post the link 🙂

      • reddragonleo says:

        Here’s your picture… delivered at 11:45 pm Wednesday night less then one day before the Thursday May 6th, 2010 Flash Crash. Coincidentally that’s where the low was that day before bouncing back up.

        The next day you can still see the print with the 1056 low showing and the real print low late in the day on Thursday afternoon. So please explain to me why this lone gunman UK Trader would (and how did he do it?) put out fake print the night before? Was he trying to tell his buddies his target low? And how did he get access to put that fake print up there the night before? In my experience only the banksters themselves have access to SkyNet as they programmed it. So logic tells me they put the signal out for their insider buddies to follow along for the ride down and back up.

        Ever since I started discovering these fake prints and posting them on the blog they stopped putting them out. I haven’t seen any new fake prints in a very long time now. I guess it’s my fault for exposing them, but it is what it is. So it took them 5 years to find a fall guy… too funny. I wonder if they used the same people the put on the 911 commission?

        • LOL!! I almost fell of my chair when I read the story.. another small time player as scapegoat.. what about the rest who enter and cancel orders on a much larger basis.. scott free..I see these prints once in a while even now…. the last one I saw was around feb on SPY

          • reddragonleo says:

            Some are signals to where they plan to take the market too, and some are just late fills from the prior day. I don’t believe any are “computer glitches” as some people say they are. They have a multi-million dollar computer system that I’m sure is a whole lot better then my simple one… and I don’t get “glitches”.

          • torehund says:

            Red and Tiger, the big boys only needs One astute trader out there to post something right, then they “get off the hoock” themselves. Its like warning of an impending murder and then you end up as the convict…Better not to know too much…

        • agree.. I am all for conspiracy theory and I believe that these are signals of where they are likely headed..

    • lunker1 says:

      This is his trading room

  35. 7dayyss says:

    Thanks for your time and effort Tony!

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