Monday update

SHORT TERM: gap up and go Monday, DOW +209

Overnight the Asian markets lost 1.3%. Europe opened higher and gained 0.8%. US index futures were higher overnight, and the market gapped up to SPX 2094 at the open. The SPX had closed at 2081 on Friday. The rally continued until 11am when the SPX hit 2104. Then the market started to pullback. By 2pm the market had pulled back to 2099. Then after a bounce to SPX 2103 by 3:30 the market closed at 2100.

For the day the SPX/DOW were +1.05%, and the NDX/NAZ were +1.40%. Bonds lost 9 ticks, Crude gained 40 cents, Gold dropped $9, and the USD was higher. Medium term support rises back to the 2085 and 2070 pivots, with resistance at the 2131 and 2198 pivots. Tomorrow: nothing scheduled on the economic agenda.

The market gapped up at the open today, reversing Friday’s selloff, and nearly rallied back to Thursday’s SPX 2105 close. While we were not surprised by the rally, it’s a choppy market, we were surprised that the SPX cleared 2100 and the DOW cleared 18000 again. Also of note, the last two gap up openings Mar 30th and Apr 15th, made a last hour high, and then dropped 40 points over the next two days. This gap up opening failed to reach the early SPX 2104 high by one point in the last hour of trading. This is fairly close to the previous pullback setups. Short term support is at the 2085 and 2070 pivots, with resistance at SPX 2112/2115 and SPX 2120. Short term momentum hit overbought during the rally, then backed off some into the close. Best to your Tuesday trading!

MEDIUM TERM: still an uptrend

LONG TERM: bull market


About tony caldaro

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130 Responses to Monday update

  1. sloop says:

    wow, quite a wild 3rd wave this one lol,exactly like the previous hundred calls of 3rd waves down

  2. fotis2 says:

    I thought maybe at least a gap close offering some buy opportunity but nada,nothing geez your index doesnt need Red Bull..what are you guys feeding this thing?

  3. kvilia says:

    Last post for today.
    On such a day, newbie’s posts are entertaining, even though they are not bringing much. Any way, today is a consolidation day. I’m way over the limit for the day, even more than newbie.
    Thanks Tony and all, have a great evening!

  4. sibyn says:

    Sibyn SPX CH RCH Exampel 20150421

    Regards Sibyn

  5. berniebaruch says:

    Newby….You need to go in your cave until a trend is established. Picked tops is for folks who play the field on the dice table in Vegas. They will send a plane for you if you have enough cash.

  6. magnus1234 says:

    The 2010 Flash Crash Villain….
    But IMHO it is not he it is the “Algos”.
    I traded that day and had a squawkbox on with live info from the SP500 pit. A very awakening moment indeed. Just one moment has been worse…the vote in the House of Representatives 2008 on TARP

  7. stephenk1980 says:

    Back in long for a few days. Still don’t think we’re sinking yet.

  8. fionamargaret says:
    ..this is what I was going to post at the weekend.

    • kvilia says:

      fiona, I hope you are not paying for this. bouraq and tore have better charts, imho. Thanks for posting, any way.

  9. lunker1 says:

    2092 top of pivot and check Tony’s EMAs

  10. Kisshu2 says:

    this is good… but it could be great with more cowbell

  11. pooch77 says:

    Bradley turndate Aprill 22 +- 3 days

  12. This kitty has been meowing something today

  13. kvilia says:

    SPX short and internediate term, great looking RUT chart.

  14. manunidhi21 says:

    Namaste Tony!
    Last few months my basic ew concepts are shaken..

  15. The referee is what uvxy is about to do

  16. kvilia says:

    Can someone tell me if I can copy and paste my charts here or this requires a hyperlink only?

  17. lbhkinqa says:

    Tony, seems pretty clear we’re working on a 3 month (and counting) triangle

    (Top is a line through 2119, 2114, 2111, and 2109 now. Bottom is 1980, 2045, 2048 and 2072. The 2 lines meet mid-May.).

    Am I right that you previously said that 2nd waves can not/never(?) be a triangles? It is the exclusive preserve of 4th waves.

  18. fishonhook says:

    Chop, chop indeed. Don’t think any of would be shocked by a move up and away, move up and failure or a drop. All are possible and unfortunately EW or TA is unable to give us a guide post as to which is even more likely. Even They had a chart that labelled P4 staring soon or even the more bearish C ending and then said they expected the move up! I must have missed something. Anyway it is a day traders market and we have to wait to see which she breaks and holds.

  19. Pivots and Fibs

  20. Lee X says:

    Well I think it’s safe to say that at least 1/2 of the 40 guys in the S&P pit made money today. It’ll be about the only game in town after July along with the options so expecting the pit to fill up a bit with guys from the other pits that are getting shuttered.

  21. jeffbalin says:

    This correction, if it is one, is way over my head. Long, rocky market, trending up, but no new highs yet, and have not matched 2040 yet. I am not smart enough for this kind of baloney. I guess it’s time to learn to day trade.

    I am not sure why the market keeps wanting me to learn a new lesson.

    • jeffbalin says:

      I guess it time to actually study all 20+ pages of charts Tony so generously provides.

    • reddragonleo says:

      LOL Jeff… the market doesn’t want you to learn any lesson. Once you learn it you figure out how to profit from it, and therefore SkyNet (the market) has too change it so you don’ win again. “The Market” as you call it (I call it “SkyNet”) is programmed to take your money, not let you make money.

      Think of it like “The House” at any Casino in Vegas. They can only stay in business as long as you lose. The only difference between “The Market” and “The Casino” is the market knows what you have in your hand and the casino doesn’t. So you stand a better chance winning in Vegas I’m afraid.

  22. Dax may have started a V bottom…which if true, would probably drag us kicking and screaming upwards.

    • So I post that and go make some breakfast come back to see dax has dropped 90 points in 15 minutes….still time to recover unless Greece has decided to exit this morning…lol.

  23. zepfan123 says:

    Guess the tease at Dow 18K,SPX 2100 and COMP 5000 still isn’t over.- 2 Hours ago with those strong futures I was thinking the odds were pretty good the Dow and S&P were going to be at new all time highs by 10AM EST…and climbing. Maybe later today. Maybe.

  24. gtoptions says:

    Thanks Tony ~ Appreciate the updates.
    Still in ‘b’ wave mode, I see. Interesting inverted 3 day pattern, last 3 days compared to 3/30~4/1.
    Just getting back to the charts maybe we’ll see that SPX 2040. GL All

  25. Lee X says:

    Morn all
    Just remember this still beats having a real job.

  26. Thank you
    Fantastic Blog
    Good luck
    My Blog

  27. blackjak100 says:

    From 4/17…

    Will the streak end this week?

  28. Although Monday’s price increases showed strength across a pretty broad spectrum, I don’t think that this is the real deal yet. But if we get another big down day, I think the ensuing rally likely will signal the beginning of real impulsive action.

  29. soulsurfer says:

    Current price and TI setup is not similar compared to previous corrections, and may suggest the anticipated correction will not be as severe (or even over!?). For example, and maybe most telling: the daily MACD is still in a buy, whereas during previous corrections it would be in a sell for a while.

  30. M1 says:

    Thanks Tony

  31. nardobeme says:

    My vote is that tomorrow is a big down day, retracing today’s gains and then some. News will be Greece, Iranian warship confrontation or imminent rate hikes, or yada yada. I swear. I had expected a lower low this am followed by a healthy move up. Today’s was not imo. Where’s Rabbit’s thoughts? Hmmm. Thanks Tony!

    • Tomorrow could be the BIG ONE! When big boys pull the plug they are going to bring major pain to the complacent.

      • tommyboys says:

        If anyone is ‘complacent’ its the bears holding losing positions through thick and thin with full confidence the end of the world is nigh…

    • tommyboys says:

      Ok I’ll take the opposing view and say this week – maybe tomorrow – we finally bust up out of the range we’ve been stuck in seemingly forever. 2013/14 gains are now close to being digested and we’re ready to move higher. Friday was a perfect bear trap. All the best 🚀

      • blackjak100 says:

        you might be right as the triangle could have completed at 2072. The one problem I see with the triangle ongoing is the rise from 2072-2104 looks to be one wave. If it was ‘b of e’ it should be 3 waves. This means the high probability setup of seeing a lower low first via Soul’s ZB case study and Jeff Cooper’s Expansion Pivot sell signal would crash & burn. This wouldn’t be a shock as this CB market seems to take the low probability route all the time (go higher at all costs).

      • robslob64 says:

        Ditto and I don’t care why…it’s a bull market even if p4 is ever coming into play…the worlds always going to end tomorrow because of xyz….

        Money ain’t everything its how you enjoy the use of it until you can’t….

        Peace to bulls and Bears.

      • fotis2 says:

        Dont want to be the party pooper at the bears party but so far pointing to an up day.Cant see a short setup till that CCI turns down again on the daily.

  32. mike7x says:

    Thanks Tony. Yo-yo market. Lots of earnings this week and Greece may issue IOU’s. If they can do it I’ll try with my credit card. Waiting for that test of SPX 2040.

    • tony caldaro says:

      Greece should issue WOE’s
      We Owe Everybody

    • CB says:

      hahaha..well, it’s their turn to take a stab at creative financing, right?…our investment bankers did that during the housing, anything goes 😉

      • tony caldaro says:

        creative financing:
        Start a sovereign wealth fund that buys all Greek gov’t property from the gov’t. It must be quite cheap considering the depression.
        Then the property is leased back to the gov’t for use.
        The Greek gov’t receives lots of euro’s, the sovereign wealth fund issues lots of debt at EU rates, the bills are paid, Troika is sent packing, the economy gets a chance to recover, and the ECB would probably even be a buyer of some of the debt.
        creative financing

        • CB says:

          Good one, Tony!
          Btw, George Soros likes your idea, Tony, and wants to discuss the details with you tomorrow at 2PM at the Waldorf Astoria. Be there. 🙂

          • tony caldaro says:

            with bells on? 😉

          • CB says:

            LOL!..Noo! Please, try to hide your enthusiasm… he wants to work quietly “behind the scenes.” 😆

          • mike7x says:

            Bring some Greek yogurt to snack on.

          • CB says:

            LOL, you’ve thought of everything,Mike :). Now that everyone likes your IOU idea so much, it might actually put the spx 2040 plans in jeopardy…then what? 😉

            Good observation, Fiona. Once a child is told he/she’s special, the kid just insists on getting special treatment all the time, regardless of his/her behavior. And that’s a heck of a behavioral problem, isn’t it. Guess what , “they” need to call Madame Lagarde to the rescue…lol

      • fionamargaret says:

        …did our investment bankers not use a little creative accounting to allow Greece into the Eurozone in the first place…….

  33. llerias7 says:

    “On the road to nowhere”…remember? Making a large top this month?

  34. tony caldaro says:

    we got within one point

  35. zepfan123 says:

    Good God..still testing the strength..or eventual weakness off that Dow 18,000,SPX 2100 and COMO 5000 combo. Down almost 300 pts Friday and up a little more 200 pts today..we’re still not really going anywhere. Yet.

  36. fishonhook says:

    Tony still think this is the case?

    tony caldaro on April 20, 2015 at 10:48 am
    if we make the high of the day in the last hour
    could be another setup lower

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