Friday update

SHORT TERM: gap down opening, DOW -280

Overnight the Asian markets lost 0.9%. Europe opened lower and lost 1.7%. US index futures were lower overnight, and at 8:30 the CPI was reported higher: +0.2% v +0.2%. The market gapped down at the open for the first time since a week ago Monday. It opened at SPX 2092, 13 points below yesterday’s close, and decline to 2080 by 10am. At 10am Consumer sentiment was reported higher: 95.9 v 93.0, and Leading indicators were reported higher: +0.2% v +0.1%. The market bounced to SPX 2087 by 10:30, hit 2079 by 11am, bounced to 2085 by 1:30, then headed even lower. Around 2:30 the market hit its low for the day at SPX 2072. Then it rallied to SPX 2084 before closing at 2081.

For the day the SPX/DOW were -1.35%, and the NDX/NAZ were -1.50%. Bonds lost 1 tick, Crude slipped 40 cents, Gold added $6, and the USD was lower. Medium term support drops to the 2070 and 2019 pivots, with resistance at the 2085 and 2131 pivots. Last night the Monetary base was reported higher: $4.167tn v $4.064tn. Today the WLEI was reported higher: 48.6% v 48.0%.

The market gapped down at the open today, then hit SPX 2072, for a 40 point decline from Wednesday’s gap up opening high. This two day decline nearly matched the 41 point two day decline after the last gap up opening on March 30th. Fractals? It appears the market has turned down for the third time after hitting the SPX 2100, NAZ 5000, and DOW 18000 combo. Overhead resistance indeed. Another down day like today and the market will be reaching initial support in the SPX 2040’s. Short term support is at the 2070 pivot and SPX 2057, with resistance at the 2085 pivot and SPX 2112. Short term momentum remained quite oversold for most of the day, then rose some in late trading. Best to your weekend!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend again under pressure

LONG TERM: bull market


About tony caldaro

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41 Responses to Friday update

  1. fotis2 says:

    Congrats Mr.Caldaro you stuck to your call thru the ups and downs and it paid off(Reminder to self:Pay more attention).Real glad Notanewbie is finally in the money and we’ve had excellent calls from some posters(Blackjack,Fiona,BG and as usual Bouraq, apologies if I left anyone out) well done guys and gals!Hopefully no-one lost money and I see the general consesus is choppy till it makes up its mind wich I also agree with.Day traders Market continues.Good luck to all and B carefull…

  2. kvilia says:

    Volatility report.

    • fishonhook says:

      Like I say they keep selling volatility. The CBs are trying their best to kill volatility, as soon as they see a whiff of it , one of them comes out with an announcement. ECB one day, BofJ the next etc. The traders aren;t stupid. Selling Volatility has been the easiest money maker for the last six years. Even now they don’t give up with the VIX near lows and the market near the highs.

  3. Not sure if its taking place but has anybody noticed a possible H/S (60 min. chart) having completed the L/S from 2072 -2088s during 4/6 – 4/9 and the head @2111s on 4/15 – 4/16 and the L/S building starting today from 2085 – 2072.

  4. torehund says:

    …think the downturn is a nescessary delay to make the macd abc long enough…

  5. Tony..thanks for all the effort and work you put in to make sense of what is likely a messy situation.. been a long time lurker but decided that I would not be doing my duty as an appreciative audience without thanking you. Not here to pick a fight.. no one has a crystal ball as to what might go down.. this is not a business of definitives(mostly) but rather one of likelihoods…we are not here to ridicule others on their analyses but rather should learn to appreciate those that have the courage to post and of course back it up (right or wrong that would depend upon each individual).. Having said that brazen calls of doom etc don’t help either.. At the end of the day it is price that tumps all and while we can all pontificate as to what might happen perhaps we should concentrate on what is 2 c FWIW.. I leave you with my read.. above 2119 and below 2039 is where you will likely have a trend in the market.. between those levels is a chop fest.. good luck everyone

  6. Tony,
    I don’t post very often but I am thinking 2120 was Pri III. Using your counts is it feasible? Thank you.

  7. mike7x says:

    Thanks Tony. I think we see a test of SPX 2040 next week. Only question, which day? And then does it reverse or fall further? Ooops, that’s two questions.

  8. Page says:

    Thanks Tony.
    More downside next week, 25-30 points will do it. Tuesday may be turn around day.

  9. Thx Tony….Great group of blogger you have here just love the diversity

    Drew and CB, thx for the compliment.

    Hey CB, sure did feel sorry for that kid, I recall getting my fair share of whiplashes during my infancy days, sure wish someone would have giving me the same advice as this kitty

    Hey Newbie, your a cool lad in my book, you have a lot of heart and energy even when you are the only bear in town, but hey today you get to enjoy your big celebrity win status amigo, we definitely have not seen the low of this current downtrend, cheers amigo

  10. blackjak100 says:

    Thx TC! Clearly 3 waves so far from 2112. 2100-2111-2072. A break below 2072 on mon would complete 5 down IMO. 2072 extremely important on mon.

  11. I’m in awe with some of you guys who are so quick to think just because we bounced off the 2070 pivot the downside is over. I see posters saying 2070 held as expected, off to new highs next week, etc.

    Lol, you guys think testing the pivot one time guarantees a successful thrust upwards and new highs? Could it not be an oversold bounce or a wave 2 before wave 3 down..

    You guys do realize at the top of the market, whether it was at 2120 or if its going to be 3120 you guys will always be looking for more, its only human- greed + complacency.

    Central bankers are losing control.

    • blackjak100 says:

      I said 2085 was a good r/r to the long side and preferred a close above 2085 which we did not get. I did get long for a trade with a nicely defined stop at 2072. If 2072 gives way, I’m onboard we are going down and 2120 was P3 high which I preferred from a time & price perspective.

    • Newbe, for now it is still 50-50. Reasons: We have touched and bounced perfectly from SPX 50% retrace of the whole last move or wave. The whole pattern (big range) could also looks a BIG bull flag on his complexity. % of probabilities, looking at the big picture, are in favour of a break higher one of this day, even if we retrace lower (but not that much)
      1 point at your favour, we still not over the recent high and until that happen ……..
      None is interested in see the Party over.

    • stephenk1980 says:

      Sure it could, I just don’t think it is, that’s all. You’re entitled to your opinion, as I’m entitled to mine. Downside is coming, just not yet imo. Gl

    • CB says:

      good points , newbie, (most of them anyway) ..

    • Anyhow, if it will give way, you will see it. The rest is silence, since the move will foretell the news.

    • Don’t know if CB’s are losing control, however, you typically don’t have a move down like this and then suddenly (re)start a new upleg without further downside. From what I have, a short position is permitted below 2082 with a stop at 2099 on a closing basis (exit adjusts slightly each day) and a potential target of 1981.

  12. Tony, double check your medium term supports.

  13. kvilia says:

    Thank you, Tony. Strong reversal on volatility instruments after they went outside of BB on hourly. Up, up and away next week to new highs. Hope newbie sold his UVXY.
    Have a great weekend!

  14. Lee X says:

    Thanks Tony you have a great weekend also.
    Nice counting there Mr Lunker
    Later on ladies and fellers

Comments are closed.