SHORT TERM: ES much lower overnight but market rebounds, DOW -7
Overnight the Asian markets finished mixed. Europe opened lower and lost 1.0%. US index futures were lower overnight. At 8:30 weekly Jobless claims were reported higher: 294k v 282k, and Housing starts were higher: 926k v 908k. The market opened three points below yesterday’s SPX 2107 close, ticked up to 2105, then pulled back to 2100 by 10am. At 10am the Philly FED was reported higher: 7.5 v 5.0. The market bounced, retested SPX 2100 by 10:30, and then started to rally. By 2pm the market had reached SPX 2111, and then started to pullback. Heading into the close the SPX hit 2104 and closed at 2105.
For the day the SPX/DOW were -0.05%, and the NDX/NAZ were -0.10%. Bonds gained 5 ticks, Crude added 20 cents, Gold slipped $4, and the USD fell. Medium term support remains at the 2085 and 2070 pivots, with resistance at the 2131 and 2198 pivots. Tomorrow, Option expiration day: the CPI at 8:30, then Consumer sentiment and Leading indicators at 10am.
The market was about 10 points lower during futures trading, but recovered heading into the open. Then after a double bottom at SPX 2100 in the first hour of trading the market rallied to 2111. A point below yesterday’s high. Thus far the market has not responded with much downside pressure after the three-pronged topping pattern noted yesterday. With today’s relatively quiet session, options expiration tomorrow could be a wild one. No change on the short term count. Short term support remains at the 2085 and 2070 pivots, with resistance at SPX 2115 and SPX 2120. Short term momentum only dipped to neutral after yesterday’s slight negative divergence. Setting up what could be a larger negative divergence if the market can hit SPX 2112 again. Best to your Opex trading!
MEDIUM TERM: still an uptrend
LONG TERM: bull market