Tuesday update

SHORT TERM: choppiness continues, DOW +60

Overnight the Asian markets lost 0.8%. Europe opened lower and lost 0.6%. US index futures were lower overnight as well. At 8:30 Retail sales were reported higher: +0.9% v -0.5%, and the PPI was reported higher: +0.2% v -0.5%. The market opened one point below Monday’s SPX 2092 close, bounced to 2097, and then headed lower. At 10am Business inventories were reported higher: +0.3% v 0.0%. Just past 10am the SPX hit 2083, and then tried to rally. By 12:30 the market had retraced the entire decline, hit SPX 2099, and then started to pullback. After a pullback to SPX 2093 by 2:30, the market bounced to 2097, then closed at 2096.

For the day the SPX/DOW were +0.25%, and the NDX/NAZ were -0.25%. Bonds gained 12 ticks, Crude rallied $1.30, Gold slid $7, and the USD was lower. Medium term support remains at the 2085 and 2070 pivots, with resistance at the 2131 and 2198 pivots. Tomorrow: the NY FED at 8:30, Industrial production (est. -0.5%) at 9:15, the NAHB at 10am, then the FED’s beige book at 2pm.

The market opened slightly lower today, rallied to SPX 2097, dropped to 2083, then rallied to 2099, before pulling back again. With today’s decline to SPX 2083 the potential alternative impulsive advance, noted over the weekend, from the recent 2048 low, looks corrective yet again. While the market has rallied 60 points from SPX 2048 to 2108 the waves have continued to overlap, suggesting this rally is just another B wave in the ongoing pullback/correction from the February SPX 2120 all time high. As a result we continue to see the market pulling back into the 2040’s area, or lower to the mid-2030’s/ 2019 pivot when this advance concludes. Short term support is at the 2085 and 2070 pivots, with resistance at SPX 2108 and SPX 2115. Short term momentum was quite oversold this morning before rising to neutral. Best to your day trading this market!

MEDIUM TERM: still an uptrend

LONG TERM: bull market

CHARTS: http://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

About tony caldaro

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128 Responses to Tuesday update

  1. NFLX up 60 bucks in after hours/ Looks like higher we go

  2. sloop says:

    gonna have to wait for tomorrow for those higher numbers…

  3. mike7x says:

    Ten occurrences of SPX range-bound around a 52 week high. From @JLyonsFundMgmt:

  4. 5 or 7 or 9 or 11. I don’t think it really matters. If it’s an impulsive of wave 3 up it will be 5. It could also be part of a 3-3-5 corrective pattern for wave b.

    “Goddamnit move your ass Cookie, I want my 12!”

  5. Like the drama on scandal and house of cards, we will let Netflix decide the direction tomorrow and sandisk reports tonight.

  6. lunker1 says:

    Leading diagonal from 2045.5?
    target is min .786 of the move since

  7. fotis2 says:

    Taking a small short to gap 2098

  8. bhuggs52 says:

    Dang, but today’s move looks to me like an impulsive start to a 3 wave off a two correction from a 1 wave. Hmmmm.

  9. kvilia says:

    One more.
    From weekly: “We have been expecting a retest of the recent 2040’s low before the uptrend resumed. We still prefer that scenario, but it will be abandoned if the market makes new highs.”
    Recent new highs were just under 2120. There could be a scenario that SPX exceeds 2120 and fails around 2130. This is a clear short to me with the first target at 2070. Otherwise look out for that 2040 to support Tony’s scenario. I just don’t see any other option on the table for the time being.

  10. Tony’s Pivot (2131)-/+2 should be hit once 2119 is broken………

  11. scottycj1 says:

    Lose 2112 and increasingly high odds we go to new highs Good luck to ……………….

  12. sloop says:

    looking/should/ would like to see 2116-20 today

  13. alexhartley1 says:

    Are we not in a 9th wave up now which would make it impulsive Tony? New highs in minute 1 of minor 3 coming up perhaps (into the 21st from a timing perspective would be my guess).

  14. tommyboys says:

    About to hit yesterday’s CwH target at SP 2110. Looks coiled for more however. 2015-2020?

  15. fishonhook says:

    Sure does look like it wants to bust out of the triangle. But then it always does at the top and vice versa at the bottom.
    Brave call sticking to the B and drop to 2020 Tony.
    Iamanewbie- hope you get out of this one with your hide intact, hard to fight the printing press. Unfortunately Wall Street now owns the printing press, unlike the Volker years.

    • Fish, thanks for your kind words. What I truly love about this site is how awkward friendships occur. For example buddyglove use to hassle/razz me all the time- now he leaves me alone even and I think he even likes me :-). Fish on hook use to hassle me now he send me nice words and wishes me luck. Theres a few other that have come around and shown the HUNGRY bear some love.


      • Newbie, I only give you a hard time because I’m trying to help you and others. I used to be just like you – and lost many years worth of income/savings in the process…while others were killing it. You are no doubt right, just early. Take what the market gives you. Tony and his friends here are a great guide, only when I’ve strayed have I regretted it. I only just converted in Aug ’13, now play the market in both directions (money doesn’t care if it was made market long or short) and have been handsomely rewarded since..but I certainly paid a heavy toll.

  16. zedozpipozzz says:

    Hi Tony
    I can count 7 waves from 2048. 2072 , 2053, 2090, 2073, 2108 and now this wave…
    Still look corrective?!
    Thanks Tony

  17. zepfan123 says:

    A red close looks possible today..and if it were to close quite red..I’ll bet we close near the lows for the week. Both aggressive short term bulls and bear continue to be frustrated. I’ve been thinking we’d get down to SPX 2040 before new highs again..and it’s still possible..but I’m certainly frustrated like many. I’d take SPX 2080 now.

    • I ll wait til 3:59 pm(EDT) to give my final red or green call…lol.Russell is relentless right now.Fine with me as I remain a cautious bull.

      • zepfan123 says:

        Gotta admit..every time the head gets cut off this thing the last few trading days..it grows back another bigger head real quick.. We may get that new ATH yet this week. Not far to go now.

  18. Lee X says:

    What a great group here that wishes losses on the other, I know some people bring this on them selves but I just feel it’s bad mojo and anyone with experience trading surely is more concerned with their own P/L than others but hey this is the internet 😉
    On the subject of Natural Gas are u guys trading the futures ?

  19. kvilia says:

    You may be able to break even with your last trade, however very tight stops are your biggest friends in conjunction with UVXY trading. I am thinking somewhere around 10 UVXY can have legs for 20-30% run – taking it with a grain of salt as 10 could become 8 in a matter of few weeks. With that being said, I am planning an UVXY entry at some point within next few weeks. Let’s market tell us when time is in.
    Oh, BTW, looking only at a small portfolio portion to utilize for this trade.

  20. Please, enough with this plumber’s crack photo. Again, what is she protesting? Reduced welfare benefits? End to austerity? Free ride for students? Can’t be any more complex than that. 😉

  21. llerias7 says:

    No…she is expressing her love enthusiasticly! Eurozone stocks up more than 20% in 2015! So…

  22. berniebaruch says:

    Newby…What about your uvxy?

    Buy more, hold, or stopped out?

  23. nice 25 point sp rally over the last 6 trading hours. Its now or never if your a bear.

  24. kvilia says:

    Waiting for Tony to remove the word “still”. I am also carefully watching the C wave scenario. Noticed that lately all these waves are taking longer to form tricking some into premature thinking for the lack of a better word 😉 Carefully watching PPs and BBs along with volatility to get a good grip on whether this is ongoing B or the iii up. In any case, finger is on trigger as I’m not trusting this market. On the other hand, when would you ever trust the market?

    • The problem now with calling A’s and B’s is that you miss the move in the direction the market goes. People here have missed it because they fear the terrible wave C, which has gone MIA. Any day now the C starts. This type of thinking will hurt your performance and distort your thinking. Elliot wave helps but there are other tools in the box that help with confusing patterns.

      We are in a bull market, why aren’t people expecting new highs? But hey I was once there, on the denial wagon, so I get it.


      • bhuggs52 says:

        Hear you Krob, and I for one have made the small mistake of late trying to short this market. The trend is the friend. This is still a bull mkt until it isn’t a bull. I’m waiting for Tony’s adviso to kick in, either a definitive rollover or a breakout. Then take a position. As for other “tools in the box”, what do you recommend? Thx. GL to you and all.

        • Real simple one’s. The MACD, Slow stoch and the RSI. You also have to study seasonality trends. This is very important. Remember the best traders keep it simple.


          • bhuggs52 says:

            Thanks. I am learning to follow those technicals you mention, and still working on developing a handle on seasonality. Cheers to you!

      • Cause this time is different. LOL. For me this bull looks tired. dollar getting stronger, earnings flat, forward pe of 19 and rising, that’s the top 99 percent already 6 years into this bull, not even a 10 percent pull back in three years. But its a central bank market and people are searching for higher returns.

        I was looking for 2019. looks as if I was wrong. and think in 12-14 months sp will be at 2600 is even more unbelievable. But it is what it is. Giidie up.

        Good luck all

        • You’ll get your pull back in late summer/fall time frame but not now. Although May is always tricky(typically down).Seasonality wise, it’s good until Late July.

      • kvilia says:

        Staying long, just monitoring closely.

  25. I have a target of 2175 with a 2140 intermediate providing a pause for (re-)evaluation. Stop for me today is 2086 with an adjustment each day near close. Good luck.

  26. fotis2 says:

    An hourly close above 2108 may be ok for day long otherwise B waves can be very sneaky.

    • Not a sure thing we finish green today.Keep an eye on the Dax for an early indicator.We seem to be following what happens there to a large degree since QE started in EU.We didn t have too many pullbacks during our QE days no matter what was happening technically–only when there was a threat of no QE.They rode our coattails then…now we ll do the same.

  27. mjtplayer says:

    With this a.m. rally above Monday’s highs the SPX & DOW are now sporting huge 60min -div’s

  28. WOW! That’s some C wave/crash….should have seen that coming lol

    • Only C Wave I’m seeing here are those my kids will be making in our new pool this weekend 😀 Thanks Newbie! Your “Kaboom” calls have been enormously profitable.

      • fishonhook says:

        Guess that B wave is extending. Use for entertainment purposes only.

      • lol…..

        BTW with tax selling pressure over with today, I expect more of a ramp into late next week. You’ll get your 2138……

        Amazing nobody got on board with this easy seasonal trade…Charts still look excellent but you’ll here today negative div on tony’s chart and that b has been pushed higher now. No impulse etc…..However the daily chart has Zero Negative div http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p39250560580 The daily chart trumps the smaller timed charts. Always have, always will.

        Enjoy the pool in the sun, just remember to use the sunblock…lol

        • salient observations krobinson, on seasonal factors and technical underpinnings. couple those with global momentum, central bank accommodation and a recent resurgence of a bad news is good news mentality there’s really very little justification for the extreme apprehension. the trend is your friend and don’t fight the fed are valid until they’re not. to Newbie’s chagrin, my 18’x36′ saltwater inground 8-ft deep pool with variable speed pump and sand filter was paid for (cash, up-front for a 3% discount) solely with proceeds from those who espouse his views. in fairness, I should disclose that the diving board was paid for via my trade in SPXU back in October 🙂

        • jparkins10 says:

          Next 2 days, April 16 & 17, are seasonally the strongest of the month.

      • Mr market, have fun in the pool. You can know afford your dream pool.

  29. ashram says:

    The next challenge for Forex Natural Gas is 2.583-2.589, above which there is some blue sky.
    The NYSE Composite is now within a few points of a P&F breakout.
    Crude is into crucial resistance with the Petroleum Status report due in about ninety minutes. Massive shorts will have to cover if there is a breakout.

  30. chicotheman says:

    The Monday/Tuesday swoon looks just like the Friday/Monday swoon in early February. The diagonal from 1820 scenario continues to track best.

  31. torehund says:


    The brent-prediction I am the most comfortable With right now.

    • torehund says:

      …you see here its just a large Flat abcde dating back to 2006. Thehe two Waves prior to 2006 (which look impulsive) Will be furthered after the E-wave up and an abc Down to 60 usd. Then the fun Will resume (in a impulsive manner).

  32. DAX on Sell, FTSE should go sell tomorrow (close of play), SPX and INDU should go Sell today close of play. At 12294 DAX, 2103 SPX, 18070 INDU and 7093 FTSE are sell. DYODD. I have stopped visiting this blog often, so, wont be replying to any message (as unlikely to come here to read).

    Bears are on path towards permanent prosperity. Please do keep some monies aside to lend it to Bulls!

  33. ashram says:

    Despite all the gloom and doom, the NYSE Composite finished .001269% from its all time closing high, and the NYSE Cumulative Advance Decline line closed at a new ATH. However, if you are one of the diehards who has your heart absolutely set on witnessing a crash, look no further.

    • Six Major Banks: JPMorgan Chase, Citibank, Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, Morgan Stanley and Wells Fargo. When you add up all of their exposure to derivatives, it comes to a grand total of more than 278 trillion dollars. But when you add up all of the assets of all six banks combined, it only comes to a grand total of about 9.8 trillion dollars. In other words, these “too big to fail” banks have exposure to derivatives that is more than 28 times greater than their total assets.

      • robnaardin says:

        Rally off the 2006 4 year cycle low leading to the 2007spx blow off top. Enjoy.

      • ashram says:

        There will be a Day Of Reckoning for the plundering of America, the inevitable consequence of irresponsible private sector derivatives and from the unfunded governmental liabilities with which our political whores buy reelection. More imminently, there is going to be a war in the Middle East because Israel and Saudi Arabia are now faced with extermination.

        But if you are a technician, you trade the charts…unless you have inside information that Tehran will be in flames tomorrow, which I don’t. If there is a sudden inexplicably huge rise in gold and crude, I would bail on the stock market because a profound event would be looming.

        Until then, trade what you see, and the charts in the stock market are pointing higher. Shorting DJI in 1926 would have been fundamentally visionary, but it also would have been financially suicidal. You would have been right, and you would have been broke. Not unlike comedians, a stock trader must never be too hip for the room.

      • It does not matter these 5 control 85% of all market moves and can move the market in ant direction at any time

    • CB says:

      Interesting, thanks, ashram. The Naz didn’t get the memo, it seems…Worrisome?
      Oh my, that poor little kid,..ouch!, that hurts! I don’t like seeing little kids hurt like that. Where’s your helmet, little lady?

    • cicelyalaska says:

      Extremely bad taste showing kids getting hurt. Repulsive.

  34. Walter Crane says:

    Great pitch……

    Uhhh and short and short and short…..

    • CB says:

      not bad for government work !

      You guys are gonna love this: more FedSpeak tomorrow AM!, the incredible duo: Mr. (Stanley) Fischer and Mr. Bullard – all good things come in twos 😉

  35. ariez5 says:

    Thanks, Tony. I am confused by your comment about all overlapping waves, though. From 2048, I see 2072(1) – 2056(2) – 2089(3) – 2073 (4) – 2107(5). All the bullish waves are approximately equal on the SPX, but they have a more conventional relationship in the Dow.
    Then from 2107 we have a near perfect 38.2% retracement so far. What about this precludes a resumption of the uptrend from with a 1-2 from 2048?

  36. Thanks Tony

    Do you think it is likely this advance will conclude below 2108?

  37. sloop says:

    thanks Tony,sure looking like a gap up tomorrow

    • jhjoyner says:

      it is also possible the markets will sell off sharply for the remainder of this week. 15 minute charts look terrible.
      Will wait and see!

      • tommyboys says:

        Don’t know dude I see a sweet CwH on the ES 5 min. Base of cup at this morning’s 10am swoon and handle about complete. If so targets about 2110 cash…

      • i see a little pop, with some sort of gap….??? But nothing remarkable. And yes, looks terrible. But, hard to decipher.

  38. fotis2 says:

    Thanks Tony you always sober us up. 🙂 so another B unless it goes over 2108..

  39. mjtplayer says:

    Thanks Tony! Chop-chop

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