SHORT TERM: choppiness continues, DOW +60
Overnight the Asian markets lost 0.8%. Europe opened lower and lost 0.6%. US index futures were lower overnight as well. At 8:30 Retail sales were reported higher: +0.9% v -0.5%, and the PPI was reported higher: +0.2% v -0.5%. The market opened one point below Monday’s SPX 2092 close, bounced to 2097, and then headed lower. At 10am Business inventories were reported higher: +0.3% v 0.0%. Just past 10am the SPX hit 2083, and then tried to rally. By 12:30 the market had retraced the entire decline, hit SPX 2099, and then started to pullback. After a pullback to SPX 2093 by 2:30, the market bounced to 2097, then closed at 2096.
For the day the SPX/DOW were +0.25%, and the NDX/NAZ were -0.25%. Bonds gained 12 ticks, Crude rallied $1.30, Gold slid $7, and the USD was lower. Medium term support remains at the 2085 and 2070 pivots, with resistance at the 2131 and 2198 pivots. Tomorrow: the NY FED at 8:30, Industrial production (est. -0.5%) at 9:15, the NAHB at 10am, then the FED’s beige book at 2pm.
The market opened slightly lower today, rallied to SPX 2097, dropped to 2083, then rallied to 2099, before pulling back again. With today’s decline to SPX 2083 the potential alternative impulsive advance, noted over the weekend, from the recent 2048 low, looks corrective yet again. While the market has rallied 60 points from SPX 2048 to 2108 the waves have continued to overlap, suggesting this rally is just another B wave in the ongoing pullback/correction from the February SPX 2120 all time high. As a result we continue to see the market pulling back into the 2040’s area, or lower to the mid-2030’s/ 2019 pivot when this advance concludes. Short term support is at the 2085 and 2070 pivots, with resistance at SPX 2108 and SPX 2115. Short term momentum was quite oversold this morning before rising to neutral. Best to your day trading this market!
MEDIUM TERM: still an uptrend
LONG TERM: bull market