Monday update

SHORT TERM: early rally fades, DOW -81

Overnight the Asian markets gained 1.1%. Europe opened lower, but gained 0.2%. US index futures were lower overnight until just before the open. The market opened at SPX 2103, one point above Friday’s close. During the first hour of trading the market reached SPX 2108 and then started to pullback. The pullback continued into the afternoon, with only two to three point bounces along the way. At 3:30 the SPX hit 2093, bounced, and then closed at 2092.

For the day the SPX/DOW were -0.45%, and the NDX/NAZ were -0.20%. Bonds gainedΒ 8 ticks, Crude added 30 cents, Gold slid $8, and the USD was higher. Medium term support remains at the 2085 and 2070 pivots, with resistance at the 2131 and 2198 pivots. Tomorrow: Retail sales and the PPI at 8:30, then Business inventories at 10am.

The market opened higher today, hit SPX 2108, and then started to pullback. While this entire rally still continues to look corrective, we added an impulsive possibility over the weekend. To keep the impulse possibility alive this pullback needs to remain above 2088, and then rally to 2108 or higher in the coming days. Other than that it will remain corrective in appearance, with possibly SPX 2108 the high for this rally from 2048. Short term support is at the 2085 and 2070 pivots, with resistance now at SPX 2108 and SPX 2115. Short term momentum peaked at extremely overbought today then hit oversold. Best to your trading this day traders market!

MEDIUM TERM: still an uptrend

LONG TERM: bull market


About tony caldaro

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79 Responses to Monday update

  1. torehund says:

    Lee, I just talked to the Martians, they say 30 to 33 usd is where brent oil Will turn πŸ™‚

  2. TB I will let you know tomorrow morning if I will take you up on your gentlemen’s bet.

  3. Shake the tree a little bit and sell it off at the close

  4. zepfan123 says:

    Well I see the DJIA is back in the green again, but it still looks like a very wet noodle to me.

  5. teej911 says:

    >2108 by end of day? That would be interesting

  6. buddyglove says:

    Some interest in NatGas here, so am putting this up as I have positioned long.
    Good basing here ready for upthrust. Aimho and GL.
    May Nymex hourly cont.

  7. nardobeme says:

    Just did my index rounds… $NYA and $MID are the only index whom received a buy this am as yet.

  8. buddyglove says:

    Seeing beartraps setting up nicely here, and am re-positioning long here in S&P. Make sure your’e not the patsy at the card table. Aimho & Glta.

  9. stephenk1980 says:

    Out of my 2101 short. This thing is going to grind higher towards the end of the month and challenge the ATH before dropping IMO

  10. fotis2 says:

    Close above 2088 may be good for a day long.

  11. FO Bella and Waldo yesterday had the top observation and now that we re below 2088…seems likely.”This week of OEX s&p down up to 80 points until April 20th.”The past 7 years (during QE as well)all corrected this week.Why? Most expirations weeks are positive but not this one.I ve read actually the only time to really be in the market is the first 5 and last 5 days of the month…the rest is corrective anyways.Here s hoping it stops around 2019.

  12. GYN LAB says:

    If we do get that c wave down IMO probably last chance to get good swing longs before the wave 3 unfolds… I will be especially looking for longs from 2040 area down

  13. mjtplayer says:

    VIX touched the bottom BB around 12.51 on Friday, nice rally yesterday, looks like it wants to go tag the upper BB around 16

  14. zedozpipozzz says:

    Hi Tony
    2088 toutch now. Think that is not a impulsive wave. So cave c can go to 2040 at minimun target?
    Thanks Tony

  15. zepfan123 says:

    Well this is a wet noodle rally so far. Hard to get much going with the Transports already down a 100 pts. Red close likely today.

  16. torehund says:

    Thanks Tony, just choppety chop…just waiting…
    ‘Had a really good surf today, expectations were Zero and then Zen pops up…as goes surfing as goes the market.

  17. M1 says:

    I agree the entire rally may look corrective. However, the fact that R2K hit new all time highs today makes one think different.
    It is also importat to note that the dow have been in sideways for abt 4 months. So a brake above 18205 should give us a very nice rally

  18. nardobeme says:

    Expect further selling tomorrow w/ possible buying late in session. The trend is your friend. πŸ˜‰

  19. tommyboys says:

    Interesting, every comment – so far tonight – suggests selling tomorrow. I’ll keep my mouth shut 😎

    • Tommyboys…..You know the drill……C wave…..Crash now….” significantly lower for next several days”..Sentiment changed to very negative in one day….One day doesn’t make a trend. Although nardobeme is correct that that the trend is your friend, one has to recognize the trend is now UP not Down. Proof not words comes in the form of the positive div still in place and all oscillators still firmly aligned for further gains on the daily$SPX&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p68517427409 IMHO the MACD after a double bottom in March looks excellent and has much higher bias ahead.


    • CB says:

      Ok, Tommy, I’m buying the hype πŸ˜‰ …this market is sooo exciting
      OK, so 3 more years of bullish bias and cool shades. Fine. πŸ˜†

      • lolomatador says:

        Lmao, love it CB… I’m still trying to figure out which Latin puppy chow dance it’s doing is it the cha cha cha, salsa or merengue… Either way it’s all sideways moves just like mr market

        • CB says:

          lol..yes, so cute! ….Gee, that’s a good question, Lolo…and I have to say I feel totally clueless here…lol.. .
          Since Lee is the best dancer here…let’s ask him, OK? …paging Dr. Lee?.. πŸ™‚
          I’d say that puppy did a great job of shaking her (tiny) anaconda…but that’s just me being clueless… :p

          • tommyboys says:

            CB “never short a dull market”. Longer the sideways base the bigger the ensuing move, RUT just peaking its head above resistance with lots of room to run. At its core the market is just physics – and the first law of physics – “every action has an equal and opposite reaction”. If SP can fall 1000 pts off a pivot high (1600) then it can bounce first to the pivot then the same 1000 beyond it.. In fact the faster it falls the further it’s likely to slingshot in the opposite direction over time. Need the widespread bearish sentiment for fuel all the way up and we’ve got plenty. I’ll take a gentleman’s bet from anyone/everyone that the Dow is beyond 19k by Memorial Day (Newbie?)…

          • Lee X says:

            Hey C B

            That’s very cute….I love doggies

          • tommyboys says:

            No takers – wow…πŸ˜–

          • CB says:

            That’s a good analogy, Tommy. I like it.

            Hey Lee, puppies & pivots – we need them both , right πŸ™‚
            I like your new avatar – lots of electric blue .very cool. Cheers!

  20. zepfan123 says:

    I was looking and hoping for a pullback to at least SPX 1940 last week,and of course..was pretty sure that Friday’s close above some key index resistance levels sealed off the door for any chance of that happening. Todays action could make one think we might still get down there soon before we make another run for new highs. Personally,since I’ve got a few Apr 24th weekly SPX puts I’m hoping we get a big down day tomorrow. If we’re up big tomorrow, I’ll take a loss on these and move on and look for another short term opportunity.

  21. Page says:

    Thanks Tony.
    I am expecting markets to be significantly lower for next several days. Not a good time to stay long.

  22. CB says:

    Thanks Tony.

  23. Lee X says:

    Thanks Tony

  24. fotis2 says:

    Tony thanks still a bit tricky but it is what it is lack of follow thru is concerning seems like all those longs from waay back cash out when it starts poking its head out like a turtle.

  25. lunker1 says:

    2092 = top of 2085 pivot

  26. blackjak100 says:

    Thx TC! The SPX reversed exactly at the upper trendline of a possible triangle I posted this weekend from Nate kautz. Still a lot of scenarios that can get eliminated as it heads lower. It looks as if your third wave scenario is on deck at 2088.

  27. A good bounce tomorrow could do the trick for a nice swing short

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