friday update

SHORT TERM: less choppy more advance, DOW +99

Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.3%. Europe opened higher and gained 1.1%. US index futures were higher overnight as well. At 8:30 Export prices were reported higher: +0.1% v +0.2%, and Import prices were reported lower: -0.3% v -0.3%. The market opened four points above yesterday’s SPX 2091 close, dipped to 2092, and then moved higher. The advance continued into the afternoon and the SPX hit 2103 at 3pm. Then it dipped heading into the close to end the week at SPX 2102.

For the day the SPX/DOW were +0.55%, and the NDX/NAZ were +0.40%. Bonds were flat, Crude gained 95 cents, Gold rallied $13, and the USD was higher. Medium support remains at the 2085 and 2070 pivots, with resistance at the 2131 and 2198 pivots. Today the WLEI was reported higher: 48.0% v 47.5%.

The market opened higher today for the fourth day in a row. This we have not seen since early January. Also the market finished higher today for the third day in a row. This we have not seen since February. While the rally from last week’s SPX 2048 has been quite choppy, 15 small waves, we took a look at the larger waves to see if there was anything impulsive about this choppiness. We did find a potential count, but will use it as an alternate until/if the market makes new highs. This will be discussed in the weekend update. Best to your weekend!

MEDIUM TERM: still an uptrend

LONG TERM: bull market


About tony caldaro

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26 Responses to friday update

  1. Hi Tony!

    Thanks for the update.
    I cannot help watching the possible Ending Diagonal play out in the Dow, from the october bottom.
    My count would be:
    A. 15.855 – 18.103. 3 waves
    B. 18.103 – 17.038. Irregular pattern
    C. 17.038 – 18.289. 3 waves
    D. 18.289 – 17.579. 3 waves
    E. 17.579 – 18.500 (?)
    Do you see any flaws in this count?

    Best wishes Sverker

  2. rabbittrader1 says:

    On the way t0 2230 SPX on or about May 10th. Exited my short gold yesterday and went long NUGT. yesterday. Sold Sugar shorts for a 2 cent gain . Out of Wheat shorts no gain , no loss . Holding long crude oil July $10 strike, calls. Still long April 17th Crude Oil calls . (Not sure they will work out) Holding SPXL ETF’s until 2230 SPX. My snow pyramid has shrunk, but still about 5feet tall Will it last until May 5th?? Yours Rabbit

  3. Well I got creamed today, I still stand short the market. I may be in a lonely trade or I maybe in the company of the big boys who pull the strings. Mondays another day and another wave. Best of luck to all.

  4. fionamargaret says:

    Chris sent me this……thought of you Tore.
    Thanks Tony and everyone – hope everyone enjoys the weekend.

    • torehund says:

      Fiona its time, just see how it responds to the dollar (think its going strong once more). I think Oil Will test all time low too, hoovering between 10-15 usd after the next decline. however stockwise it doesnt have to bee that bad as I think the Euro goes Down to 0,3 vs Usd. Exciting times Ahead regardless of what scenario one chooses as a guide.

  5. Jorge Castro says:

    TC what is your opinion about The dax ? Thanks in advance !

    • JD C. says:

      I can’t believe that tree rat got away. He’s probably one of the guys chewing on my truck wires!!

    • CB says:

      too small to fail, huh? …nice one…what a fluke… I’d think that any self-respecting predator doesn’t go after any prey it cannot get…it seems against nature…a tiger, e.g., isn’t going to chase its prey for miles because it doesn’t have the stamina, so it lies in wait, the same thing with hawks, I’d think… and that little fella seemed to have an advantage because of its natural habitat & the kind of terrain, maybe(?) …And what are even the chances of such a thing happening (and a NatGeo reporter catching it)….pretty amazing…so a nice catch, Ashram! : ) …very cool. Who are you rooting for here, the predator, or the prey? Do you think that the hawk decided to hang around for a few more…days 😆 , maybe?

      • JD C. says:

        CB, Hawks eat squirrels, just a matter of persistence. A few winters back I had trouble with squirrels chewing on my truck wires, so I started trapping them and letting them go at a park or church parking lot. I had one that I let go at the church parking lot and it started running across this big blacktop lot, a hawk flew out of a tree next to the lot and just missed picking up that squirrel. That squirrel had a rough day that day. You’d be surprise what eats what in the wild.

        • CB says:

          Too bad that those squirrels clearly prefer your truck wires, JD 😉

          And who knows, maybe there was a market lesson for us in that video, too. We’ll see what Ashram has to say on that..
          In the meantime, on the daily chart, we’re getting close to a little bit of resistance..hmm

    • zepfan123 says:

      Very nice….and great analogy film for the short term trading part of the game. We can all relate to how lucky that squirrel feels getting back home safe with his prize. No reward.

      • CB says:

        Exactly, Zepfan. Great observation. Literally squirreling money away 😉 Nice. To me, it also illustrates one key principle that our Lee has always taught us, i.e. ,”pick your spots,” where we need to be selective as to how/when we want to be engaged with the markets. That hawk should have hunted where it had the biggest advantage (due to its eyesight ,speed, & an element of surprise) which is in an open field, one would think . Unfortunately, it got stuck in all those tree branches where it lost that advantage. And so it basically squandered its energy, right? And one bad decision in the animal kingdom can mean: “no lunch” (just like in trading, right..?). So, yes, it’s a gr8 video w/ lessons about survival from the animal world. Awesome photography & music also. Ashram always shares great stuff with us. Very nice, Ashram, Thank you.

  6. This could have been the end of wave 2 and now Monday starts wave 3 down, I’m not so sure why Bulls are not giving this possibility much of a chance.

  7. Thanks Tony. Question, by any chance is anyone OEW broad entertain the possibility that the rally from 1981 to 2120 is possibly 3 waves in lieu of 5 waves? Other then that the bulls made it clearly once again that they like to

    mean while the bears showed us their hands

  8. 7dayyss says:

    Thanks Tony and regulars, been a humorous week in the comments. Leaving us hanging till tomorrow, huh!

    • CB says:

      “Leaving us hanging till tomorrow, huh!” – much worse than that…till Monday, actually, 7dayss.. 🙂 Good to hear from you again! Cheers!

  9. torehund says:

    Good weekend Tony and the gang.

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