Tuesday update

SHORT TERM: quiet trading session, DOW -5

Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.6%. Europe opened higher and gained 1.6%. US index futures were higher overnight as well. The market opened three points above yesterday’s SPX 2081 close, rallied to 2089 in the opening minutes, then declined to 2081 by 10am. By 10:30 the market had rallied to SPX 2090, and then it gradually pulled back for the rest of the day. At 3pm Consumer credit was reported higher: $15.5bn v $11.6bn. In the last hour of trading the pullback strengthened and the SPX closed at 2076.

For the day the SPX/DOW were -0.10%, and the NDX/NAZ were -0.15%. Bonds dipped 1 tick, Crude gained $1.60, Gold slipped $5, and the USD was higher. Medium term support remains at the 2070 and 2019 pivots, with resistance at the 2085 and 2131 pivots. Tomorrow: a speech from FED governor Powell at 8am, then the FOMC minutes at 2pm.

The market opened higher today, managed to reach SPX 2090, set up a negative short term divergence, and then began to pullback. With today’s slightly higher high than the late March SPX 2089, we have moved our Minute b label to 2090. Now the current corrective pattern looks even more similar to the December-February correction. The rally from the recent SPX 2048 low still looks corrective: 2063-2054-2072-2057-2090. Time for the last leg down, with FOMC minute volatility tomorrow? Short term support is at the 2070 pivot and SPX 2046/48, with resistance at the 2085 pivot and SPX 2115. Short term momentum displayed a negative divergence at today’s high. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: still an uptrend

LONG TERM: bull market

CHARTS: http://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

About tony caldaro

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125 Responses to Tuesday update

  1. IAWT says:

    Gap up and go is my thoughts…

  2. reddragonleo says:

    I feel like there are too many bears sitting with “buy stops” right above 2090 SPX area for a big move down to happen. SkyNet is not in the business of letting bulls or bears make money. It’s set up to trick both and steal their money. Therefore I don’t feel comfortable going short until those bears are taken out first. So I’ll wait for a move above there of 10-20 points to look for a short.

    • redra…,Correct, let stops hit and then will sell to Bulls at 2104 and take them down as well. So, strategy is to send Bears packing first and then send Bulls packing later..

      • reddragonleo says:

        Agreed… shoot the bears first over 2090 and then slaughter the bulls below 2040. After that we’ll shoot some more bears I guess and make the bulls chase the rally.

  3. nardobeme says:

    $SPX and $DJX remain on sell mode… GL all…

  4. ashram says:

    The FOMC minutes are from a meeting held prior to Friday’s abysmal employment data. They have been rendered obsolete by subsequent events. The significant news today is from China:


  5. H D says:

    2085 pivot is very user friendly. Did we mention the $55 level in CL last week?

  6. bulls and bears alike trying to claim victory today

  7. Wave 3 down, here comes the fireworks.

    • zepfan123 says:

      If they just kill this thing going into the close today…maybe. Looks to me like the jury is still out on how the last hour goes. Still looks 50/50 to me on them finally punching this up over 18,000 for an extended stay. Forshort term trading purposes,I ‘d rather see us sell off hard into next week.

      • fionamargaret says:

        ….now maybe we should have them re-set the markets to zero…..100% participation (and volume) guaranteed….

    • too bad that’s not true

    • Right on cue….You speak and the market goes the other way..lol

    • H D says:

      April 8, 2015 at 9:43 am, April 8, 2015 at 1:05 pm
      Newbie, ur timing is perfect, maybe you just need to look at it a different way. GL

    • Fireworks Newbie? For this end of day rally? So nice of you 🙂 BTW, how are you positioned? I have the distinct feeling that you’re augmenting my brokerage acct…LOL

      • To my hater fan club:

        I am short and the only way I close out my short position is if we break 2100.

        • imnotnew…, PL. don’t, it is breaking 2100 but not 2117. Remember, victory is ours, don’t give up when victory is in sight. In fact, don’t short huge qty now, bulls will take stop losses at 2096, once they take stop losses, I will sell to Bulls at 2104 and corner them. DYODD. Till it goes to 2104, enjoy life.

          Look at my grand strategy.

        • zepfan123 says:

          Not a bad plan..considering we’ve had a lot of potentially bullish news the last week.. and we are still south of Dow 18,000. And a red close today is still not out of the question from the data I see @ 2:45 EST.- Yep..gotta keep your stops loose in a market like this or you’ll get stopped out no matter what…right or wrong. Should be a very interesting close today..and maybe the “tell” for where we go Thurs and Fir. Good Luck.

      • berniebaruch says:

        Strong RUT makes it a lot tougher but not impossible. They are also trying to beat down the vix. I would suggest each time you have the urge to post, wait an hour and see what happens. Either that or you need to incorporate fade into your name.

        BB’s are continuing to pitch in daily. Gonna be a hell of a quick breakout one day.

        • Did you guys ever think the bounce was to shake out shorts that were triggered when the market went red and the move up was to squeeze them? Bulls here claiming victory very prematurely in my opinion.

          • fotis2 says:

            Its better to post something and be judged than post nothing and be the judge.Newbie you doin just fine

          • CB says:

            newbie, do yourself a favor and take a look at the “freaking” RSI because it’s “freaking” screaming something

    • Walter Crane says:

      Right you are… even a blind squirrel finds a nut. Just gotta keep sniffing.

  8. nardobeme says:

    While $MID, $NDX and $RUT gave me a swing buy this am, $DJX, and $SPX yet to. Hmm… further downside?

  9. AAPL, not very convincing price action, for now.
    ES-F Wedging, Over 2086 long granted, Under 2060 short granted. At any of the 2 wait a retrace to act.
    GC Over 1206 is a long granted stops at 1198. But only over the said prior. 1rst profit target at 1236.

  10. My all dear BEAR friends, please don’t give up. I will attack from west and rest of you guys attack from East. I will speak to my team and see if I can find someone to attack from South and North. It is sad, that south and North team suffered heavy casualty when Ben dropped monies from chopper. Unfortunately, Ben monies fell directly on their head!

  11. gasman88 says:

    Earnings season kicks in tonight. Analysts have lowered their estimates to below ground zero making it easy for companies beat. I’m guessing we will see a lot of ‘better than expected’ headlines, which may provide next leg up?
    The last 2 quarters markets sold off sharply at the beginning of earning season, only to reverse sharply later on.

  12. fotis2 says:

    Well the break favours the short side for now tricky fomc days.

    • blackjak100 says:

      Looks like 4 of C just completed as abc. Looking for a slight high above 2090 to complete structure.

      • fotis2 says:

        Close above 2090 would confirm DB on the way on 4hour chart target 2025 watching the volume (basically the only indicator i use) for conviction suprised that small gap 2019 has not closed yet of course fomc coming out could throw a spanner in the works as usual.

  13. zepfan123 says:

    Wow…lost another 100 pt Dow rally. Big tug o’ war game going on here at Dow 18,000. Guess we’re waiting for the Fed Minutes “speak” later today for the next clue as to whether we break out of this super tight range sooner than later. Hopefully it’s sooner.

  14. gtoptions says:

    Thanks Tony
    C wave structure could be similar to A wave. Lesson learned from OEW Tony. 😉
    Looking to go long SPY @ 204/202.
    Vacation Time. Enjoy the Spring All.

    • zepfan123 says:

      If you think the SPY will go down to as low as 204 to 202..I’m surprised you’re not in some SPY puts. Thats a huge drop. You could easily triple your money on some SPY 208 puts if it goes down that far. Even the 205 area will put a very nice profit on those. Guess I better look at those myself.

      • gtoptions says:

        I day trade short term SPY volatility, and hold small options positions on swing trades. So, yes I have a small leveraged position down to at least 204. In this chop I find it highly profitable to trade the short term volatility and then get out of the way. Then I can relax while it spins its wheels and look for the next set up. Enjoy.

  15. mjtplayer says:

    Looks like yet another failure at the SPX 2,087 – 2,090 resistance area. The VIX has held the 14 support area, yet again. Rinse and repeat…

  16. Hello wave 3, Here comes 1950.

    • Dex T says:

      Maybe but first let the market break 2040. If it does then there’s a high probability it will break 1981. Then it will be the end of the bull.

      • lol……Crash calls again…lol

        Looks like another rip your face off rally is around the corner. We must wait until all shorts buy puts and then up it goes.

        • krobinson, a move to 1950 is not a crash, its a wave 3 down. Unreal some of you guys are so complacent and are conditioned to up up and up; you cant even bear to think of a down move or correction.

          • Dex said…….”high probability it will break 1981. Then it will be the end of the bull”. Nevertheless he is touting the end of the great bull. You know how that type of mindset has treated you over the years. it’s a crap shoot. You know this…come on…Furthermore each time some newbie has proclaimed this it’s off to the races again. It’s like 100% since 2009 lol…..

            Take care,,,,

          • tommyboys says:

            Krob – ya gotta understand with the web you’ve got seasoned pros with multi-decades of experience but also (unfortunately) rookies proclaiming knowledge after a year or two with the markets. Gotta be able to sift out ignorance – and you are seemingly good at it. Almost need a sixth sense on the web. 😉

          • Make up your mind, please. Your response to krobinson1976 an attempt to portray yourself as a rational moderate describing a healthy pullback in the context of an ongoing bull market? Yet, just a week ago, you posted this – and your subsequent posts seem to reinforce your extreme stance. Are you tempering your arrogant negativity in case you’re about to be proven wrong…again?

            imnotanewbietraderanymore says:
            March 31, 2015 at 4:14 pm

            At this juncture I believe the Bull Market ended at 2119. An alternate count would be Primary III at 2119 and now down to 1800 for Primary IV area and then rocket off to new highs. I am not currently in agreement with that count, I think we are going to keep dropping and dropping till at least 1400-1000 on spx. I am also a massive buyer of PHYSICAL gold and silver right here and now.

          • Mr. Market, you are misinterpreting the totality of my posts. You do get the general theme that I am a BEAR but you are not comprehending I am open to the possibility that 2119 was top of Primary III which could mean Primary IV is going to take us down several hundred points from here (1800-1700)! When I say wave 3 is coming to 1950, well than there is a wave 4 up and a wave 5 down taking us to 1800-1700 level. I am a BEAR with an open mind, I currently think the top of the market is in at 2119 or at the very least Primary III ended there.. I will reevaluate at 1800- 1700… Why is this so hard for you guys to understand?

          • thanks for clarifying/confirming what I suspected. GL with your totality as well as your self-confessed being a Bear with an open mind. To each their own.

  17. mjtplayer says:

    Another massive oil inventory build of 10.9m barrels – triple what was expected.

    Money has poured into oil and energy stocks recently, in fact hedge funds have their largest net-long position in oil in 4 years. But, with all the short covering and hedge fund buying, oil is only up $8 or $9 from the lows. What happens if inventories continue to build at this rate and the hedge funds have to sell? Answer: new lows ahead

  18. Hmmm… I couldn’t see a long entry until break above 2092.74 or a short entry until break below 2058.51. Values change slightly each day but that’s the range for me. And I keep hearing this talk about April is historically the best month, up 16 out of last 20, yada yada; gives me cause for pause. 😉

    • April historically from start to end is an up month this is very true but it is only half the story. Look closer and one will see that historically April is a whiplash month more often then not. It tends to rip up and down fast and furious.

  19. HA, HA, HAAAAA!!!!! Lee X, CB, TC, go to the cubes now!!!

  20. Does anyone check the weekly Fed balance sheet on Thursdays? Since Oct 2014 it has totally flattened out and may have decreased a bit.Coincidently(probably not) US equities have flattened since then as well.My thought was at the time, that once QE ended here, US stocks would have a tough time .So far its true…something to consider since many have correlated the bull market to Fed balance sheet expansion the last few years.With all the longer term neg divergences on S&P charts added to the mix, can we really expect much this year for stock returns? My answer would be only if the dollar starts dropping on a sustained basis.

  21. filipozze says:

    good day, here my short term view:

    new highs if today’s higher high

  22. Interesting developments in credit markets. Swiss bonds have negative yields now, and the same for Spanish government, while US still pays the takers of its debt (Belgium and Caribbean). What I see is that lenders are seeing the Swiss franc and euro much safer than USD, and are willing to accept a negative return vs a possible total loss (or a significant loss via inflation or complete USD collapse). Where will this end, Mr.T any idea? I know you have a view on inflation hitting around 2017, could you map your thoughts?

    • tony caldaro says:

      Not expecting any appreciable inflation until the mid-2020’s.
      Have no clue why I should lend a government money for 10 years, and pay for the honor of doing so. Unless, I was a fund manager and forced to allocate a certain percentage of managed funds into Bonds.

  23. fishonhook says:

    Hangseng up over 3% last night. Shanghai powering up day after day.

    Tony you sure you dont want to relabel your Shanghai count?


  24. blackjak100 says:

    The catalyst to kick off downside movement must be the Fed minutes this PM. TC thinks it will be a C wave and I think it could be the start of wave 3. Either way, sideways movement until Fed minutes are released. GL and Cheers!

    • scottycj1 says:

      Earning season is kicking off as well…….the strong dollar should start to take its toll on the multinationals.

      • Already priced in That’s what march was all about.. One thing the market does well is price out the known. The entire world knows about the USD issue. Even my next store neighbor is talking about it. My point is, the earnings estimates are too low. I wouldn’t be shocked at all to see earnings beats and guidance revised higher. The net result is higher equity prices.

        The USD is in a correction now and should stay that way until it’s seasonal low in May. Another reason why equities should grind higher.


    • jeffbalin says:

      I’m leaning bullish but I am a little confused and went to sidelines. But will resolve soon like you say.

  25. uncle10 says:

    Hey Mr. T. Hope all is well with everyone.
    I havent been keeping up much here, but I assume Tboys is still bullish and Newbie is still calling for a crash tomorrow. Hopefully Rabbit’s igloo or ice structure has not melted for his partaa.

    The Cubs are finally going to win the series again, and it will be a great day for our nation! 🙂
    Good luck all.

  26. 56rambler says:

    Is it me, or does it seem like buyers become reticent a day or two ahead of a known FOMC event (whether a meeting or release of the minutes)? Thereafter buyers come back into the market, lifting prices again. Would love your thoughts.

  27. great update tony!

    Stocks are failing to hold gains despite oil strength; plus we have Fed minutes, earnings coming late on WEDNESDAY.

    Also the TRANSPORTS which are the LEADER of the market are struggling here, CHART HERE => http://www.bit.ly/1fMcakI which is a little bit concerning i think.

  28. fishonhook says:

    Kudos to these two, they nailed the trend change to the second. Now tell us what the indicators are guys?

    nardobeme says:
    April 7, 2015 at 11:20 am

    My SPX swing indicator flipped to short about 45 min. ago. Agree with GT… I have 207 and then 204 area on map as targets as well. GL all.

    scottycj1 says:
    April 7, 2015 at 11:57 am

    Mine went sell about 11:00 ET

  29. M1 says:

    Thanks Tony

  30. bhupal777 says:

    Tony, Question…As you mentioned if the last leg down materializes then what is your projections for price move and timeframe? Thank You. I am curious because If SPX goes down below 2040 then my UPRO PUT options which lost over 60% value should get some life back.

    Sold half of $TWTR position for 12% profit that I entered on 02/11.
    Charts are projecting that Gold, Bonds, Euro may move higher after FED minutes.
    Entered NUGT today and already own TLT and ULE. Good Luck All.

  31. Has the time come for the dry bulk carriers to rise again?


    If my call that commodities are going to rise again is correct then one next logical investment would be to buy stock in dry bulk shipping companies.

    I present as a case DRYS (Dryships Inc):

    The stock displays a potential completed a-b-c correction to end a 8 year bear market and in general in the dry bulk carriers. The Baltic Dry Index is at a 30 year low and there is pessimism in general. There is also talk of the primary engine of commodities growth (China) slowing down and potentially having a hard landing. When I look at the chart of the SSEC however I see a breakout and I see similar patterns in other Asian markets. The dry bulk shipping stocks are likely to follow.


  32. kvilia says:

    The whole exercise looks on a daily and weekly like a consolidation but what do I know.

    Thanks, Tony and all.

  33. Tonight, remain wide awake, c y all 2morow

  34. Lee X says:

    Thanks Tony

    *Be humble or be humbled

    *Does not apply to internet blogs or spider monkeys in heat

  35. tony caldaro says:

    Seems like everyone is waiting for something

    • rabbittrader1 says:

      Yes I am waiting for Cinco De Mayo , Margarita’s ,Arizona Salsa, Texas Barbeque and Hot Jalapeno Baked Beans ( and a Marriachi band,( PLUS my own ukelele playing.) OIL CONTINUES UP. This SPX is going UP, after Janet talks. Gold is headed further down. THERE IS NO INFLATION!.

    • bhupal777 says:

      Bouraq, What a magnificent job you are doing on EURUSD and many other assets. Particularly I have been tracking your analysis on EURUSD for weeks now. That an accuracy. Though I follow my own charts on corresponding ETFs, it is good to refer your charts for a different perspective. Thanks for sharing your charts.
      Agree with your comments on Gold chart. On GDX the corresponding gap has filled today so I entered NUGT.

  36. fotis2 says:

    Thanks Tony so looking for the down push maybe tmrw than hopefully some volume on the way back up cause as it stands now pretty pathetic.

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