Monday update

SHORT TERM: gap down then big reversal, DOW +118

Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.5%. Europe was closed. Before the open NY FED Dudley:, gave a speech. The market gapped down at the open to SPX 2057, but then immediately reversed and started to rally. At 10am ISM services was reported lower: 56.5 v 56.9. The market continued its rally until it hit SPX 2087 around 1:30. Then for the rest of the day it went sideways until the last hour of trading whenΒ it pulled back to close at SPX 2081.

For the day the SPX/DOW were +0.60, and the NDX/NAZ were +0.70%. Bonds lost 16 ticks, Crude rallied $2.80, Gold rose $14, and the USD was lower. Medium term support rises to the 2070 and 2019 pivots, with resistance a the 2085 and 2131 pivots. Tomorrow: Consumer credit at 3pm.

The market gapped down at the open in response to Friday’s ES futures decline after the Payrolls report. Immediately after the open the market started to rally. After hitting the mid-2080’s by early afternoon it ran into resistance at the OEW 2085 pivot. While the rally was impressive, like last Monday, we are still seeing choppy activity from the recent SPX 2048 low. In fact, this pullback/correction is starting to look like a mini version of the December-February Major wave 4 correction. To continue the comparison the market will need one more push down, over the next few days,Β to complete the pattern. Short term support is at SPX 2048 and SPX 2034/35, with resistance at the 2070 and 2085 pivots. Short term momentum hit extremely overbought today. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: still an uptrend but choppy

LONG TERM: bull market


About tony caldaro

This entry was posted in Updates and tagged , , , . Bookmark the permalink.

139 Responses to Monday update

  1. Lee X says:
    Not that all these posts aren’t entertaining but here’s an update on Tonys SPX 60 min

  2. zepfan123 says:

    Perma bulls looking for new all time highs on the Dow and S&P sure can’t party yet with “this” today. Lost all the rally…and the SPX is super weak.Jury still out on which way we finally break out.

  3. Greece news coming out any time soon.

  4. johnnymagicmoney says:

    I have learned the best way to use this blog (aside from paying attention to the more consistent traders on here) is to keep things simple using triple leveraged indicies both long and short right above or below Tony’s pivots. Whether or not he calls a trend or has the correct wave count the pivots are real and almost always when the market approaches one there is a stalling of sorts. If the pivot holds as I hope I keep the position until the next pivot comes and so on and so on. All I did was short when we were at 2085 with TZA and went from there. So far so good. Its my first short in weeks as I kept using leveraged longs between 2035 and 2085. Not sure how comfy I feel with TZA but I am willing to take it into the close if I have enough of a gain to hedge against a gap up the next day. Making smaller bets and having smaller leashes and just trying to get wins. I dont pay attention to RSI’s and MACD’s and blah blah blah although one day I hope to learn more of the nuances out there. For now this seems to be working and like others have said who cares which way it goes as long as I am on the right side of the trade. I do think the market is retarded but you can make money in a retarded market with the money whore Janet at the head of the table. Didnt Jan from The Brady Bunch turn into a porn star (or was that Cindy)??? If so Jan’s must be a whorey name (no offense if someone’s wife is named Jan or Janet). lol

  5. SPX, if strait to support will be a long and this was a mini 1 we will be in mini 2. If retrace up 1/2 way back, is a short and this could have been a B, meaning the C could starts. No shorts for now, Eventually long at support.

  6. come on Bulls. Take us Bears out. Squeeze us into the close.

  7. mjtplayer says:

    Astonishing how light the volume is today, much lighter than yesterday and even lighter than last Thursday’s pre-holiday volume. In fact, the SPY & QQQ have a shot at printing the lightest volume day of 2015; we’ll see where they end the day. That’s not the way to test the SPX 2,090 upside resistance area….

    VIX still holding the 14 area, which is surprising given the market rally yesterday and today plus the zero volume element

  8. H D says:

    …. Zzz wave, at least it’s National beer day :mrgreen: Cheers

  9. nardobeme says:

    My SPX swing indicator flipped to short about 45 min. ago. Agree with GT… I have 207 and then 204 area on map as targets as well. GL all.

  10. fionamargaret says:

  11. ashram says:

    If the bullish commodity thesis is correct, EWC should prosper. There is a coil and triple daily positive divergence.

  12. buddyglove says:

    Adding to my Russian holdings today and maybe of interest to others. (although not much when I first put this up in late jan(now up 23%). No change of opinion and still think Russia is the best Mkt to invest in right now for short, med, and long term. T.A. ,value and Sentiment all looking very bullish.Jeez, this mkt is trading like a mud hut asset bare third world country, not a resource rich super power.
    Alternatively wait for all time highs and a media frenzy when Jim Crammer will scream it a buy.
    Good health/wealth to all.
    Russia ETF. daily.

  13. gtoptions says:

    Thanks Tony
    SPY ~ WR2 @ 209.05 ~ -/div on hourly suggests Caution.
    Looking for a test of the 204 low.
    GL All

    • Lee X says:

      Thx gto
      You’ve been in the zone my man

      • gtoptions says:

        Thx Lee,
        I feel like I’m in the Twilight Zone making that bearish call, but that’s what the Technicals tell me. Not the Fed, Not the News, Not the Newbie. LOL πŸ˜‰ And if it goes the other way, I’ll trade it.
        Good luck with the Cubies this year, I’ll be rooting for them as I always do. 😬

        • If I may, the highs post-NFP weeks before and after seasonal expirations (April expiration) have all been on Mondays or Tuesdays the past 8. I honestly didn’t expect it to get up to 2087 yesterday, as the previous max move up in any of those last 8 weeks was +12. +20 through me for a loop yesterday, and another 3 on top today threw me loopier.

          The pattern is still the same until its broken. Highs Monday or Tuesday. All 8 of the last 8 set the weekly lows on Thursday or Friday.

          I raise this here with you because that would be a push down towards a test of the 204 low, though based on the studies of those periods I did I’d expect 204 to go but not by much. Maybe just enough to get bearish technicians excited.

    • reddragonleo says:

      You’re not alone. My technical analysis says we’ll likely top today as well. I don’t know the upside target but 5-8 points higher from here is about all I see possible.

  14. the correction has potential new characteristics if 3 green days, up Tuesday, JMHO
    ,,,4 day rally into 1/22 @ 2065, noted

  15. buddyglove says:

    Dax complex H&S slingshot set-up struture working out beautifully.
    Dax hourly cont :-

  16. jeffbalin says:

    Tony, is it possible that your original count, 2 at 2039 and 3 in progress was correct this whole time? Right now, my thinking is that it was correct and we are in minor 3 or whatever. I am now bullish and think the odds we are making new lows has drastically diminished.

  17. mjtplayer says:

    Looks like another failure at the SPX 2,089 area. The SPX did make a HH over yesterday’s high, but unconfirmed by the VIX which made a HL. The VIX has held the 14 support area yet again, this is the 3rd time the VIX has held 14 over the past week and a half. Looks like it’s time for another rise to the VIX 17 resistance area.

    Just like the SPX has played 2,040/5 to 2,090 ping pong, the VIX has been playing 14 to 17 ping pong.

  18. ashram says:

    Forex Crude is now challenging the horizontal neckline of an IHS on the five hour chart that extends back to 2/19.

  19. torehund says:

    China is prepping.

  20. buddyglove says:

    A few of us here knew the Friday jobs report futures sell off was a ruse… if you didn’t, then you were the patsy at the poker game. Sounds harsh?, maybe, but not nearly as harsh and brutal as the punishment finacial mkts will dish out to you for your mistakes…GL to all.

  21. Tony,

    I’m seeing a possibility that 2039 was A, 2114 was B and 2045 C to complete the correction from 2119. With that being said 2088 would then be 1, 2 was at 2048 and we are now currently in 3. Choppy yes but looks plausible considering today’s action.


  22. scottycj1 says:

    Not sure why this chart has not been updated…..Took the liberty to add some letters (Aqua)
    Seems to add a different flavor now.

    Good Trading

  23. blackjak100 says:

    With a new high above 2086 today, I will count 11 waves from 2048 on the hourly chart which is corrective. The bears would need to be concerned with a close above 2094ish as that would be above the upper channel from 2046.

  24. sibyn says:

    Sibyn SPX CH RCH Example 20150407

  25. fotis2 says:

    From November last year the modus operandi has been low volume- ATH – selloff.Personal target 2200 for P3 perfect 161.8 relationship to P1 but would need a daily close above ATH with accompanying volume or back to trading the range.

  26. ..and this is to keep DOW theory buy signal intact as TRANNIES are lacking and they need to rise to keep DOW Theory buy signal intact.

  27. As originally stated by the inimitable Bruce Springsteen and later echoed by the less iconic Fall Out Boy, “we’re going down, down …”

    My indicator gave minor Sell signal on Mondays 3/9 at 17,995.72, on Monday 3/16 at 17,977.42, Monday 3/30 at 17,976.31, and again at today’s close of 17,880.85

    Note that not only was each signal on a Monday and produced immediate selloffs (read profits), but each and every sell signal has been from a slightly lower price point, all just below the 18K level. We’re headed lower.

    • What would the market need to be at tomorrow or say, by Friday, to change your opinion? Anyone can get on here and say, “we’re headed lower (or higher)” and they’d be absolutely correct…eventually. What does a close above 2,104 on the S&P this week mean to your forecast? How about 2,120 next week? Just curious about your timeframe – please elaborate.

  28. bhupal777 says:

    Thanks Tony.
    Over the week end I was toting my own horn on Tony’s blog thinking I am well positioned for Monday. So all the moves that I made on Thursday (Short SPX-UPRO, Long TLT and exited some longs) proven to be wrong. If Friday was not an holiday I might have got some opportunity to book some profits in my shorts. But now I am sitting on losses on those positions. Well who said trading is easy. At least I am flat for the day because Europe (FEZ,EWI and CS) and China (PEK) positions saved me. Still holding UPRO,TLT, ULE and BIS. Lets see how the week goes.
    Good Luck All.

  29. torehund says:

    Just added to the dollar flatlining, the bottom phase isnt just an X, but the chop also carved out an ABC, if d pans out the e wave may calm Things Down ( Dollar QE ?), or if e-wave inverts shoot the USD to insane Levels.

    • torehund says:

      Good work Tony and Bouaq, your Charts and opinions are always part of my armamentarium.
      Concerning the Euro, never say never, but such a lousy rally isnt strongly indicative of a bottom longer term.
      Whilst the Eurozone has to print to fill the piigs, I think the next FED move Will DQE- QE (dollar qe) to keep it Down.

      • bouraq says:

        Thanks Torehund. My USD top call is only for short and medium term. USD has more to go in the next few years I reckon.

    • Bouraq, your charts are straight on! I draw these myself and then look at yours. You got it down. I find that if you have a very thin line to draw (which you do), it can produce very precise readings, as opposed to thick lines.

      I give credit where credit is due.

      Chart away

  30. CB says:

    Thanks Tony.
    Geez, that Cramer guy now wants people to profit from “the ignorance” of the overnight futures?….really? So, futures’ traders are ignorant, huh?…lol…who’s he kidding?…the dude has been reading too much Sun Tzu lately… what a deceptive way to appeal to the average guy….

    • tony caldaro says:

      Jim has a show everyday.
      He has to talk about something

      • CB says:

        well put Tony, : ) and Mr. Chief Propagandist probably pleases some of the people all of the time.

        • tony caldaro says:

          He pleases his friends, and passes along information.
          Remember this:

          • torehund says:

            Lol, count you fingers after every encounter With “The”.

          • CB says:

            Definitely remember it , Tony. That tape tells you everything you need to know about his role on TV all along. Lets’s see, Paulson was installed at the Treasury already in 2006, right? And poor Ben still didn’t know anything in Sept. of 2008? Cramer is crazy like a fox here, and actually doing the job he has been hired to do for them – the job of convincing everyone that “they knew nothing”…Liar, liar , pants on fire, I’m saying, plus a lot of bad acting in that scene(although he tried pretty hard to be convincing.. πŸ˜› )
            Ever notice how when things go wrong, especially at the top level, it’s suddenly fashionable for all the responsible parties to act dumb?(except in the business world, because of tort law, obviously). OK, and then, in a few short months, that totally “dumb” organization came up with a fantastic recovery plan & a bailout package, and the markets started working again and we were able to avoid another Great Depression (sigh ; ), so they went from dumb to genius in a few short months? That’s pretty remarkable, no? Without any prior plans , suddenly everything was working perfectly. Doesn’t it take time, knowledge, and preparation to engineer a miracle, though? Of course, it does. So it was pretty unbelievable what JC was saying in that tape..but hey, that’s the power of TV.. πŸ˜‰ – You can fool a lot of the people, all the time…The delicate issue is that if he keeps playing that “ignorance” card a few more times (like he was suggesting today about the futures market, for instance), and people start seeing through all those games, he’s going to completely lose his credibility and become useless to his masters because his viewers will stop buying his story….OK, but “they” still own the markets, and politicians, and pretty much anything that matters, right? So why even bring it up …especially since we have the best trading market the money can buy, right?..TRUE! … End of rant πŸ˜‰

            • tony caldaro says:

              The blame was placed on Greenspan and Bernanke (“They know nothing”).
              When actually the blame was with his Wall Street buddies and their get rich quick AAA Mortgage Backed Securities scam.
              Why did Beare blow up and Lehamn blow up? They got stuck holding too much MBS before they could unload it on the public!

          • CB says:

            Tony, market participants behave rationally, and they try to maximize their profits. The only limitation on their “get rich quick” behavior, that we have a in a free market system, is the law and the regulators. The Fed is supposed to oversee the banks. It’s hard to believe that Greenie didn’t know about all the fraudulent mortgages that were starting to appear in the financial sector. He is not stupid, and he SHOULD have known about those emerging problems as the banking regulator. The buck stops with the Fed. They have a lot of power, and they have a lot of responsibility. So why send Cramer and tell us they just “didn’t know.” It ‘s just not a good excuse.

    • Hey, CB little Jimmy is all bullied up and ready for an up leg everyday

      • CB says:

        LOL, that’s funny, Matador. He just wants to be your (and everyone’s) friend, and “they know nothing”.. of course πŸ˜‰

  31. Rodneysussman says:


    Sent from my iPad


  32. Rodneysussman says:


    Sent from my iPad


  33. πŸ˜€ you are the 1st that saw the same pattern as me. Great

  34. bhuggs52 says:

    Thanks Tony. One couldn’t paint a more similar replication of patterns. Curious. The only activity right now with my investment funds–I paid my 2014 taxes. At least last year I banged down enough bucks to owe some to The Man.

    • tony caldaro says:

      The Man … the silent partner

      • jhjoyner says:

        Based on the market being extremely overbought and the DJ-20 losing 39 points( still in a corrective mode), So I assume the market will spend most of this week in the toilet!
        Other blogs are saying the same thing! Just a reflex rally, no volume to support todays advance.
        Guess we can look forward to a lower low in the corrective process.

        • “Other blogs are saying the same thing! Just a reflex rally, no volume to support today’s advance” That is your clue that much more upside is on it’s way. The blogs on the internet are notoriously bad at timing and directional calls. Remember these same blogs have been calling for much lower prices and yet it goes sideways to up. Think outside the box.

          Good luck,

  35. tony caldaro says:

    From here it looks like the Cards have their best lineup since 2011.
    We have had the roaring 20’s, a depression, WW II, the cold war, the fall of the Berlin wall, the dotcom bubble, the housing bubble, the great recession, and now the biotech bubble all after the Cubbies won their last world series πŸ˜‰

  36. llerias7 says:

    SPX in the very same levels of December! Returning 0% in 4 months! Seems traped forever in the range (?like the FED?)…

  37. fotis2 says:

    Thanks Tony closed almost exactly on Thursdays open can’t count anything looks like straight 1 wave up for now day traders market tmrw maybe 2 down.GL to all

  38. mjtplayer says:

    Thanks Tony!

    I was just going to mention the same thing, that the recent pattern in the SPX looks just like a mini version of the Dec – Feb. But with one caveat: In late Dec the SPX made a HH before the choppiness, in March the SPX did not – it made a lower-high.

    Horribly light volume today, just like the last 2 Monday rallies, which were both sells. Also the VIX closed in the green, not a good sign when the DOW is up 118pts.

  39. Lee X says:

    Thanks Tony

Comments are closed.