SHORT TERM: choppiness continues, DOW +65
Overnight the Asian markets gained 1.1%. Europe opened lower but gained 0.1%. US index futures were lower overnight. At 8:30 weekly Jobless claims were reported lower: 268k v 282k, and the Trade deficit was lower: -$35.4bn v -$41.8bn. A few minutes later FED chair Yellen’s speech was released: http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/yellen20150402a.htm. The market opened two points below yesterday’s SPX 2060 close, but immediately turned around and rallied to 2072 by 10am. At 10am Factory orders were reported higher: +0.2% v -0.2%. The market then pulled back to SPX 2061 by 12pm. After a rally to 2070 by just past 2pm, the market dipped to 2065, then rallied again to 2070, before closing at 2067. Just before the close FED governor Brainard’s speech was released: http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/brainard20150402a.htm.
For the day the SPX/DOW were +0.35%, and the NDX/NAZ were +0.10%. Bonds lost 9 ticks, Crude dropped 60 cents, Gold slipped $3, and the USD was lower. Medium term support remains at the 2019 and 1973 pivots, with resistance at the 2070 and 2085 pivots. Tomorrow, a holiday: monthly Payrolls (est. +255k) and the Unemployment rate at 8:30.
The market opened slightly lower today, rallied, cleared SPX 2063, then hit 2072 by 10am. After the that the market went into pullback mode for the rest of the day. Thus far from the recent SPX 2048 low we have had a three wave rally: 2063-2054-2072. Then the pullback overlapped the first wave up (2063), when it dropped to 2061 by noon. This makes the entire SPX 2048-2072 rally look corrective, suggesting that the low will eventually be broken before this pullback/correction ends. Short term support is at SPX 2054 and SPX 2048, with resistance at the 2070 and 2085 pivots. Short term momentum rose above neutral today and ended there. Best to your three day weekend!
MEDIUM TERM: uptrend still looks weak
LONG TERM: bull market