Wednesday update

SHORT TERM: volatile night quieter open, DOW -78

Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.3%. Europe opened lower but gained 0.5%. US index futures were sharply lower overnight, then rebounded early this morning. At 8:15 the ADP index was reported lower: 189k v 212k. The market opened three points below yesterday’s SPX 2068 close, and immediately started to move lower. By 10am the SPX hit 2048, then started to rally. At 10am ISM manufacturing was reported lower: 51.5 v 52.9, and Construction spending was reported lower too: -0.1% v -1.1%. The rally continued until 11:30 when the SPX hit 2063. Then after a pullback to SPX 2054 by 12:30 the market rallied to 2062 by 2pm, then pulled back to 2054 again by 3pm. After that the market bounced to close at SPX 2060.

For the day the SPX/DOW were -0.40%, and the NDX/NAZ were -0.45%. Bonds Gained 15 ticks, Crude rallied $2.00, Gold rose $19, and the USD was lower. Medium term support remains at the 2019 and 1973 pivots, with resistance at the 2070 and 2085 pivots. Tomorrow: weekly Jobless claims and the Trade deficit at 8:30, a speech from FED chair Yellen at 8:40, Factory orders at 10am, then a speech from FED governor Brainard at 3:45pm.

The market opened at SPX 2065, well above the suggested open of the overnight lows (SPX 2042). The market then immediately pulled back to SPX 2048 in the first half hour of trading. Then after getting extremely oversold the SPX tried to get something going on the upside: 2063-2054-2062-2054. So far this could be counted as a 1 – 2 (flat) upwards. But if SPX 2054 gives way we are likely to go even lower. If SPX 2063 is exceeded on the upside an impulsive pattern is possible. With Friday a holiday, we may get resolution to this pullback/correction tomorrow/Monday. Turning points often occur around holidays. Short term support is at SPX 2054 and SPX 2046, with resistance at the 2070 and 2085 pivots. Short term momentum rebounded to just below neutral, from this morning’s extremely oversold condition. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend until it fails

LONG TERM: bull market


About tony caldaro

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84 Responses to Wednesday update

  1. Good news for Bears, All models have gone on SELL as of yesterday’s close. Any rise in SPX, DAX, FTSE, INDU should be shorted. All are at crash level. If you have bought, then book your losses ASAP. DYODD.

  2. scottycj1 says:

    Dow Trans at new low for this decline

  3. Obama to deliver statement on Iran negotiations at 2:15 Eastern time.

  4. There is a magnet at DOW 17748. Been there all day. That was support the 1st time it broke. and now the same thing

  5. reddragonleo says:

    Sibyn, you just may see your 2017 next week. I agree with MjtPlayer that the bulls should have rallied up hard today but they failed. This is bearish for sure going into next week. The NFP report being released Friday when the market is closed is also a worry. It tells me it’s likely a bad report and they want the 3 day weekend to cushion the blow before Monday morning.

    They have a habit of releasing good news during market hours and bad news afterhours. We should be up a lot more then we are now with Yellen speaking and a long weekend for Easter. I smell a rat. The market is too quiet. Usually when we see a very quiet market something will happen to spark a strong rally or a sell off… but which one?

    • NFP will continue to be just as strong as it been expected as the “Re-cycling Job Creation” (meaning most jobs are replacements and not truly newly created jobs) continues. This is one big factor as to why the participation rate has been in decline YOY for years and is now only starting to stabilize as Corp America continues to pursue bring back manufacturing sector back to our Mother land. IMO DJT is going to fire the first shot as to whether P4 has begun.

    • Yeah that’s some real fear over tomorrow/next week……..$VIX&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&id=p93319356480 ……Yeah they are scared out of their mind….lol…….They can’t buy enough puts…….hehehehe….

      O BTW most of the Big Boys are gone for the extended weekend. They are on their boats enjoying the weather. It’s a calm sunny 51f in the Hamptons today. My point, don’t over think today. I used to work on Wall Street. The gentlemen have habits. Leaving ahead of a long holiday weekend is up there at the top.


      • teej911 says:

        Not many folks here on TC’s blog either. Maybe the Gentlemen are frequent responders here also. I did see Tony respond earlier though, he obviously is not a gentleman. 😉

  6. mjtplayer says:

    Very poor price action today. The bulls have the ball, the last trading day before a 3-day holiday weekend on super light volume; if the bulls can’t goose the market and hold the gains today then that should be very concerning to the longs out there.

    Big picture, this is a great week for the bears. With quarter-end window dressing, beginning of the month/quarter new money coming in over the first trading day or 2 (DC, DB & pension contributions) all during a holiday shortened week – and the market is flat for the week???

    So what happens next week, when all these bullish tailwinds are gone and we begin to focus on Q1 earnings (which will be lousy and negative Q over Q)? Oh, and don’t forget about Greece’s IMF debt payment due next Thursday and the game of debt chicken they’re playing.

    The bulls have less than 4 hours in the trading day to do something, if not then the bears should take over on Monday

    • Dex T says:

      Agreed. Historically this is the strongest time of year for the market and the past month has been surprisingly weak. It’s 1 month away until the “sell in May” saying takes place and the current low volume trading becomes even lower.

  7. blackjak100 says:

    NYAD new ATH today – pause for celebration.

  8. llerias7 says:

    Emerging Markets outperforms US and are rockin`all…

    Nice weekend. Have fun!

  9. I smell a drop of 30 or 40 points on s&p starting as soon as today.

      • Nice one tony, I’m a bear and I have strong sense of smell- and I can definitely smell what the rock is cooking! According to the number of scent receptors, the bear has the best sense of smell of all terrestrial mammals. Black bears have been observed to travel 18 miles in a straight line to a food source, while grizzlies can find an elk carcass when it’s underwater and polar bears can smell a seal through 3 feet of ice. It’s not all about food, though — male polar bears have been known to trek a hundred miles following the scent of a sexually receptive sow. 😉

  10. Naz looks heavy to me….GDXJ which I played with from nov 2014 til a month ago has a downtrend line at 26 (up to 24.15 this am before falling 2%).Normally if the first trading day of the month is down, day two is gangbusters…still time but Naz is not a happy camper right now.Good luck all.

    • One could make a case that the Naz just double bottomed at the 50ma. Btw….today is an obvious wait for tomorrow set up. In the end….the extreme pessimistic view people have on the market will ultimately seal the fate of the bears….


      • tommyboys says:

        All the bearish sentiment and the RUT is all of 10 points off its ATH with the SP off 50-60 (from ATH) right here…mmm – OK definitely last post today – all the best 🙂

      • True, but usually a double bottom would ignite something a little better than this.We could still do EOD ramp up, but just not impressive yet and wouldn t surprise me if NAZ finished red by 20 or so.

        • Again……let me repeat…………jobs numbers tomorrow is making today…..funky…..nobody is going to add exposure ahead of it….it’s that simple….btw…it’s lunch now on wall street. Typical lunch action now. Odds are high that the Naz closes green for the day at 4pm eastern standard time.


  11. blackjak100 says:

    Thinking minute ii is still ongoing from 2115-2046 and will complete near 2090 as WXY. Y is in progress now. This should work off any oversold conditions to allow for minute iii next week. Nothing looks impulsive from 2046 – just a series of 3’s.

  12. gtoptions says:

    Thanks Tony ~ Your still the best.
    SPY ~ Pushing the WPP @ 206.91, break above WR1 @ 209.66
    GL & Good Weekend All

  13. tommyboys says:

    Strong jobs number this morning beating estimates – a positive surprise after Wednesday’s payrolls. This said puts outnumber calls by the most in 6 years. This could be taken either way although pessimism in this metric is high. Lots of hedging here with other sentiment almost exactly neutral. Inflexion point upon us…

  14. Ok, at this moment dow futures are down 13.18 Let’s see if the yellen effect is in play this morning, she is always good for at least 50 plus dow points every time she opens her mouth.somfutures should move positive

  15. lbhkinqa says:

    Tony, I think you’ve just ensured the market will stay in 2054 to 2063 trading range all day lol

  16. I thought we would at least make a new high on the Nasdaq tomorrow and up to 2104-2017 on the S&P’s, but the strange overnight session set the market back too far. With this latest rally failure and the lower March high in place, I think a 100% retrace back to the February low at 1980 in the next 2 weeks is on the books.

    • zepfan123 says:

      I think you’re right. Even if we get another quick pop up on Yellens talk..that should be shorted. The path of least resistance for the short term is DOWN.

  17. torehund says:

    very spooky, when commodities are this low…

    • torehund says:

      just neglect the above post I missed on the geography 🙂

      • torehund says:

        ..another shake here in North of Peru today, could feel the wave impulses and water in the bottle moving, just a 5,2. 3rd shake on a relatively short timeframe. Its getting twilitish…in markets and on terra firma.

        • ashram says:

          Peru, eh? So how is Alberto Fujimori doing?

          On the five hour chart, Forex Crude formed an IHS, broke out, retested the neckline with a 62 percent retracement, and is now forming another IHS. It is a brutal bear market, but commodities are attempting to make a stand.

          Hope you all have a good Good Friday. I am not Christian, but I pray for the Christians who are being subjected to a Holocaust in the Middle East.

  18. bhupal777 says:

    Thanks Tony.
    $IBB short ($BIS) that I initiated on Monday is in good profit and booked profits on 1/3 position. It has reversed going down at 50 day SMA. I am seeing wave ‘iii of 3 of III’ to downside will start some time next week if not tomorrow. Next stopping point is 100 day SMA at 320. If not I will get stopped out for a break even.
    What a strength in Europe and Asian markets. $CS is up 2.7%. $PEK is up 2.26%. If $INDL takes out 110, then we can see some kind of C wave or ‘3 of 3’ wave on a weekly chart. We are talking minimum target is $150. Bears think it is a suckers rally. So be it. My risk management will keep me out of losing my shirt.
    Don’t forget that primary trend is up. All this choppiness means it could be forming a top or it just a consolidation for next leg up. No body knows. But one thing is sure, it is very dangerous game trying to catch tops and bottoms.

    New positions initiated in $NUGT and $NFX for short term trade. Good Luck All.

  19. M1 says:

    Thanks Tony !!
    It should go up…your major wave 5 of primary wave III is not finished yet

  20. Worth repeating again – from

    Wishing a profitable Thursday to everyone:-)

  21. what happened to jedi trader?

    • buddyglove says:

      Ronnie..She recieved an offer via this blog to post charts on a subscription site, I guess she took it, and is probably prohibited from posting her stuff for free.

  22. sibyn says:


    • reddragonleo says:

      That’s a big drop Sibyn… not sure about that one. But statistically there’s a 93% chance we’ll have a lower low Thursday then Wednesday’s low… so maybe? After that though we should see a powerful squeeze the rest of the day and possibly Monday.

    • sibyn says:

      I have DAX Bear from another site live 20150401 1x insert 12052, 4x 12086, 8x insert 12102, 16 x insert 12110. SL 12120.

    • sibyn says:

      Big drop? Well … that’s what I get up in my calculations, if it goes wrong I stop writing.
      The calculations have been highly high precision.
      One should not write if you get the wrong calculations.

  23. torehund says:

    That little devil of a blue X- was necessary to extend the rsi and macd counts, now rsi, macd and price has a credible correction count either C 3, double abc or Fives, you choose.

    • ashram says:

      Your scenario is viable. DJI stopped right where it should have stopped.$INDU&p=60&yr=0&mn=4&dy=4&id=p41246471147&a=401422191&listNum=70

    • torehund says:

      5 + 3 = 8, and the number 8 is the only number With Mirror symmetry capabilities (either 8(5 and 3 is all), or 2 x zero =nothing), so 5 and 3 is” all and nothing at the same time”, like the universe from infinite tiny to infinite large. Thats why a 5 wave or a 3 wave structure has to be ambivalent.
      A count is never finished until it can equally be a 3 and a 5, general impression can be a 3 or a five, but there are always structures that upholds the principle of ambivalence. It is only at passing inflection points that you can tell what it really was.
      On passing large scale inflection points price travels to the next inflection point, just look at Shanghai, when it could not be a 5 wave Down (in decade scale), then it rallied nearly without a stop to where we are now, and if it doesnt cross (I think it has crossed, but still a bit difficult to tell) then we are into a flat, or something much worse. If it has already crossed a retest of all time highs is very likely.

  24. torehund says:

    Thanks Tony.
    Quiet before the Storm.

  25. Tony i see the same 1 – 2. Algos, look switching. Let’s see it tomorrow. i suppose gap up..

  26. blackjak100 says:

    Looks like we need a fifth wave down towards 2040ish to complete from 2089. This would set up a nice +div for a possible oversold bounce.

    • buddyglove says:

      Agree, but am looking for more than os bounce.

    • bhupal777 says:

      Blackjak100, What if S&P drops big (~2%) tomorrow or Friday then you are forced to count that as iii of 3 rather than 5th wave. That is why it gets tricky following EW or technical analysis on hourly charts. What we know so far is, we have series of lower lows from 2119 on a daily chart. We lost 50 and 100 day SMA. Most logical next downside stop is at 200 day SMA at 2010. That is more than 80% retrace of wave 1. When wave 2 retraces most of wave 1, it has done its job well which is shaking off all the weak hands before going for a ride. Also 2010 is still in the realm of Tony’s bullish count. Good Luck.

  27. teej911 says:

    Appears we are at an inflection or turning point here and a kick in the pants or a slap to the face is needed. I vote for a slap.

    • zepfan123 says:

      I think a big slap is coming early next week. It might happen right out of the gate on Monday even.

    • CB says:

      lol….tj, you work for emergency medical services right?
      Gee, Yellen’s speech is b4 the market opens right..,dang it, how inconvenient

      Thanks Tony!

      • teej911 says:

        Yes I do 🙂 Her speech really shouldn’t have a ton of relevance to the market tomorrow unless of course she gives fodder to those that are PATIENTLY waiting to jump on any word

        • CB says:

          OK. We’re in good hands, then. : ) As far as her appearances, we’re still in training.. 😉
          Besides her, we have the NFP release on Fri ( when the cash market is closed 😉 , and then a full moon/lunar eclipse on apr. 4 … that’s all….

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