SHORT TERM: gap down opening, DOW -200
Last night FED vice chair Fischer gave the following speech: http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/fischer20150330a.htm. Overnight the Asian markets lost 0.4%. Europe opened lower and lost 1.2%. US index futures were lower overnight, and at 9am Case-Shiller was reported higher: +4.6% v +4.5%. The market gapped down at the open to SPX 2076, dipped to 2073, and then started to rally. At 9:45 the Chicago PMI was reported higher: 46.3 v 45.8, and at 10am Consumer confidence was reported higher: 101.3 v 96.4. Just after 11am the SPX hit 2084, and then began to pullback. After a decline to SPX 2075 just past noon, the market bounced to 2082, then dropped to 2067 by 3:30, and closed at 2068.
For the day the SPX/DOW were -1.0%, and the NDX/NAZ were -1.0%. Bonds gained 11 ticks, Crude dropped $1.15, Gold slipped $1, and the USD was higher again. Medium term support drops to the 2019 and 1973 pivots, with resistance at the 2070 and 2085 pivots. Tomorrow: the ADP report at 8:15, then ISM manufacturing, Construction spending and Auto sales at 10am.
The market opened lower today with a gap down, reversing yesterday’s gap up opening, and ending the month with 15 gap openings in 22 trading days. The pullback we were awaiting occurred as the SPX dropped to 2073, holding above Thursday’s 2067 high. But the rally failed at SPX 2084, short of reaching yesterday’s 2089 high. After that the market chopped around within the SPX 2073-2084 range, until hitting 2067 in the last hour of trading. With today’s failure to take out yesterday’s high, the rally from SPX 2046 is looking corrective. We labeled the SPX 2046 as a possible Micro wave ‘a’, and the 2089 high as a possible Micro ‘b’. This would suggest Micro ‘c’ is now underway in this complex pullback/correction. Short term support is at SPX 2053 and SPX 2046, with resistance at the 2070 and 2085 pivots. Short term momentum dropped from extremely overbought yesterday, to oversold today. Best to your trading!
MEDIUM TERM: still an uptrend until it fails
LONG TERM: bull market