SHORT TERM: gap up and go Monday, DOW +264
Overnight the Asian markets gained 1.3%. European markets opened higher and gained 1.1%. US index futures were higher overnight. At 8:30 Personal income was reported higher: +0.4% v +0.3%, Personal spending higher: +0.1% v -0.2%, and the PCE was reported higher: +0.1% v +0.1%. The market gapped up at the open, over the OEW 2070 pivot, at SPX 2077 and continued to rally. At 10am the SPX hit 2084, just short of the 2085 pivot, then began to pullback. Also at 10am Pending home sales were reported higher: +3.1% v +1.7%. Around 10:30 the SPX hit 2079 and began to rally again. By 3:30 the SPX had hit 2089, then pulled back to close at 2086.
For the day the SPX/DOW gained 1.35%, and the NDX/NAZ gained 1.15%. Bonds lost 2 ticks, Crude slipped 30 cents, Gold slid $13, and the USD was higher. Medium term support rises to the 2085 and 2070 pivots, with resistance at the 2131 and 2198 pivots. Tomorrow: Case-Shiller at 9am, the Chicago PMI at 9:45, then Consumer confidence at 10am.
The market had a gap opening today, for the 14th time this month in 21 trading days. It has been one of those kinds of months. Today’s gap up opening followed a gain on Friday, and broke the six week streak of no back to back rising days in the SPX. The longest streak of this nature since 1994. You may recall the market hit its most oversold condition last week, on the hourly RSI 5, since 2001. This market has been certainly pushing the negative technical envelop, but is still less than 2% from its all time high. At the open the market gapped over the 2070 pivot, then later on hit the 2085 pivot range. Quite a rebound considering the SPX was at 2046 only Thursday. After the five waves down from SPX 2120, the market has risen in three waves from SPX 2046: 2067-2053-2089. The action over the next day, or so, will determine if the market is impulsing higher, or continuing the pullback/correction. If we see a pullback then higher highs it is likely impulsing. If not, then the pullback/correction continues. Short term support is at the 2085 and 2070 pivots, with resistance at SPX 2115 and SPX 2120. Short term momentum hit extremely overbought today, then dipped a bit. Best to your trading!
MEDIUM TERM: still an uptrend until it fails
LONG TERM: bull market