Monday update

SHORT TERM: gap up and go Monday, DOW +264

Overnight the Asian markets gained 1.3%. European markets opened higher and gained 1.1%. US index futures were higher overnight. At 8:30 Personal income was reported higher: +0.4% v +0.3%, Personal spending higher: +0.1% v -0.2%, and the PCE was reported higher: +0.1% v +0.1%. The market gapped up at the open, over the OEW 2070 pivot, at SPX 2077 and continued to rally. At 10am the SPX hit 2084, just short of the 2085 pivot, then began to pullback. Also at 10am Pending home sales were reported higher: +3.1% v +1.7%. Around 10:30 the SPX hit 2079 and began to rally again. By 3:30 the SPX had hit 2089, then pulled back to close at 2086.

For the day the SPX/DOW gained 1.35%, and the NDX/NAZ gained 1.15%. Bonds lost 2 ticks, Crude slipped 30 cents, Gold slid $13, and the USD was higher. Medium term support rises to the 2085 and 2070 pivots, with resistance at the 2131 and 2198 pivots. Tomorrow: Case-Shiller at 9am, the Chicago PMI at 9:45, then Consumer confidence at 10am.

The market had a gap opening today, for the 14th time this month in 21 trading days. It has been one of those kinds of months. Today’s gap up opening followed a gain on Friday, and broke the six week streak of no back to back rising days in the SPX. The longest streak of this nature since 1994. You may recall the market hit its most oversold condition last week, on the hourly RSI 5, since 2001. This market has been certainly pushing the negative technical envelop, but is still less than 2% from its all time high. At the open the market gapped over the 2070 pivot, then later on hit the 2085 pivot range. Quite a rebound considering the SPX was at 2046 only Thursday. After the five waves down from SPX 2120, the market has risen in three waves from SPX 2046: 2067-2053-2089. The action over the next day, or so, will determine if the market is impulsing higher, or continuing the pullback/correction. If we see a pullback then higher highs it is likely impulsing. If not, then the pullback/correction continues. Short term support is at the 2085 and 2070 pivots, with resistance at SPX 2115 and SPX 2120. Short term momentum hit extremely overbought today, then dipped a bit. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: still an uptrend until it fails

LONG TERM: bull market


About tony caldaro

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129 Responses to Monday update

  1. mjtplayer says:

    SPX 2,066 support from the lower TL of the wedge/ED pattern has held, so far…

  2. Kevin Robinson says:

    The Market is giving you a gift here. The end of quarter portfolio adjustments happening since options expiration is 100% normal and quite predictable. What happens next? Well seasonally there should be a 1 1/2 to two week rally starting tomorrow. April is always a great month for equities in pre-election years interestingly enough that link that I have provided is tracking this year perfectly so far………

    Furthermore we should fill yesterdays gap and then surge over 2100 by Thursday or next Monday at the latest…Unfortunately EW won’t see this coming and most here from what I can see expect the market to crash from here. Wow!!! Such bias never take place. The market is about to whip some a s s

  3. ashram says:

    There is a Gold monthly cycle low due for March, which makes the following highly relevant:
    Despite the large weekly rise in the gold price speculative traders increased their short positions.
    Current Managed Money short positions are at all-time nominal highs at over 84,000 short contracts outstanding.
    This rise in short after a large rise in the gold price is unusual and suggests that the latest rise in gold was not due to COT short covering.

    We take a contrarian view and think gold may have much more short-term upside.

  4. Anyone have a line in the sand for the close. Ie above 2058 positive below negative.

    • fotis2 says:

      Scratching my Head could go anywhere looks like another inside day suppose trade that tomorow . Daily techs still good for more upside and ath very close for bulls AND for bears gap at 2063+possible WC start+the by now famous RCH 🙂 compliments to Sibyn GL ..

    • Lee X says:

      “After the five waves down from SPX 2120, the market has risen in three waves from SPX 2046: 2067-2053-2089. “

  5. Last chance to jump ship!!

  6. Lee X says:

    LeeX says :
    March 31 at 11:46 am
    Good morning guys

  7. sibyn says:

    SPX Goal 2066 or lower today.

  8. gtoptions says:

    Thanks Tony
    SPY ~ So far holding WPP @ 206.91 ~ Looking for WS1 @ 204.32

    Nobody Knows ~ 33.33% Bullish/Bearish/Neutral 😉

  9. imanewbietrader says:
    March 26, 2015 at 12:29 pm

    here comes 2077-2085 and then collapse to 1950

  10. Well, for my count to work, we must tank now. B Ended at 2089 A of C at 2073 B of C 2084 now C Of C to 2019

    • GYN LAB says:

      Not sure about the ‘C of C to 2019’ part, but its nice to see the .618 golden ratio at work: .618 of 2115-2046 at 2089 yesterday and .618 of 2089-2073 at 2083 so far
      I am looking more at the first support at 2035 (again .618 of 1981-2120)

  11. rabbittrader1 says:

    Long SPXL looking for new high at end pf week and on to 2230 by MAY 10th. I concur weith Tony that this BULL will not top until 2017. Pattern recognition ,cycles, economic situation and EW tell me we are about in March 1928 with SPX. Still long UCO, Short Gold (since $1307, looking for below $1000 before buying gold and silver stocks. Still short July sugar since 14.5 cents. Went long July UCO calls at $10 strike (for 48 cents each) My pyramid of snow still stands at about 7 feet, for Cinco De Mayo. CWAZY WABBIT

  12. rabbittrader1 says:
  13. ashram says:

    On 3/17, Forex Crude created a run stop double bottom with bullish divergence. It rallied $8.45, and has now retraced .611 into hourly chart support. There has been speculation as to whether Crude made an intermediate term low. This is an important test.

  14. lunker1 says:

    Similar pattern to Mon-Wed 16-18 test SPY gap support 206.7

  15. As said in reply to one of the posts, resistances were 2074, 2090 and 2110. 2074 was quickly taken out, but 2090 stopped. Strategy now, is SHORT now, stoploss at 2094, then short 2104 stoploss at 2126, short at 2134 stoploss at 2146. DYODD.

    Only problem with this scenario is; SPX may turn back from any price from 2094 to 2104 as there are minor resistances at all prices. But, if that happens you are unlucky.

    All models are BUY ATM. But past shows that models fires signals with a delay of about 36 hours.

  16. fotis2 says:

    I think this week will be very important Fransesca if not WC down maybe W4 must find support and reverse at gap 2063 (50% retrace) and than W5 up and break yesterdays high at least.Lower than that problem for bulls if it turns out to be WC big payout to the bears.

  17. joecthetruthteller says:

    The first trading day of the second quarter, which begins on April 1, has shown strong performance over the past 20 years, according to the Stock Trader’s Almanac. During that time, the S&P 500 advanced 16 times with an average gain of 0.56%.

    • vinniesj says:

      What you failed to mention is Traders Almanac also stated the last 2 trading days of the quarter are usually down days, and last I looked, the Dow ended up about 260 pts….

      • joecthetruthteller says:

        Wasn’t talking about the LAST TWO days! Talking about April in general!

        • lunker1 says:

          Joe only tells the truth about the part he talks about lol

          • joecthetruthteller says:

            Lunker never practices what she preaches by always disregarding 3 post limit but mouthing off when others do so. And she also makes it a point of critiguing most of the posters on this blog.

    • jhjoyner says:

      The Fat Pitch is often very wrong with his analysis..

  18. bhuggs52 says:

    Thanks Tony. Amazing how many measures you track and how your overall scope remains solid, and importantly, flexible for when the market makes a redefining move. I’ll wait to see if we’re going north, or south, from today’s move. Cheers brother.

  19. bhupal777 says:

    Thanks Tony.

    If we don’t get follow through tomorrow in the market then $IBB may rollover from here. Entered short using $BIS with a stop at 32.25. Like the risk reward so entered the trade, not trying to catch the top. Otherwise what an upside day. $FXI went up almost 4%. yes 4%. Don’t mistaken it is not leveraged ultra ETF. It is a regular ETF. BTW it is also a breakout. You have to respect that breakout. I am already in $PEK so didn’t enter $FXI. My Europe stocks (CS, EWI, FEZ) underperformed, also $FB and $TWTR underperformed. Otherwise all other stocks had a good day on my portfolio.
    Good Luck all.

    • jhjoyner says:

      I agree and Big up Days are rarely the top!

      • bhupal777 says:

        I am neither a bear nor a bull. Based on the primary market trend and chart patterns, I am net long in my portfolio. But as per Ryan Detric’s tweet today…

        “According to Yahoo Finance data, last time had 2 straight $SPX closes on the low tick was December ’99. Just had 3 last week. $SPY”

        Nothing to fear or get panic as long as you have a rule based system to trade and stop losses in place. But thought that is some thing interesting stat.

  20. Does anyone think we may be completing the right shoulder of a H/S using a 60 min chart from 3/12 – today’s close. MJTPLAYER makes the case of lower volume which may all be coming together soon.

  21. Page says:

    Thanks Tony.

  22. esvxm says:

    Thanks Tony for the analysis:
    German DAX, S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrials, New York Stock Exchange Composite Index, NASDAQ Composite, NASDAQ 100 key levels and patterns to watch. Dow Jones Industrial exploded higher from the bullish Gartley pattern formation on the YM and closed right at a key level.

  23. tommyboys says:

    Pullback continues. Today’s lack of volume points to EOQ window dressing. Likely continue tomorrow then another smack down first part of April. Volume however has been heavier on sell offs all the way up – just how it works – fear is a greater motivator than greed.

    • vinniesj says:

      Don’t forget reverse repo. Fed washes the market with over $300 billion in liquidity for its primary dealers, It gets paid back eventually, and the primary dealers make a killing on the floated pile of liquidity.

  24. That is Market forced as higher as possible to take more profits. Watch out !! Elevator up, stair steps down…

  25. zepfan123 says:

    The whole day was pretty much done and over in the first 10 minutes. Up 260 pts at 9: 40 AM ,and up 260 pts at 4:00 PM. We may hold these levels for the EOQ BS..but I ‘ll bet we break last weeks lows again soon,and go south of SPX 2040 yet.

    • mjtplayer says:

      The VIX made it’s low for the day at 9:51am, that’s very unusual for a day and rally like today.

      Interesting spike in the VIX right before the close, VIX rallied from 14.19 to 14.51 in the last minute of trading, literally. Could be nothing or could be something, we’ll see.

      • CB says:

        interesting… spx definitely had a problem with the 2087/88 area on the 5 min charts – mulitiple – Divs today – we’ll need to spend some time testing that level tomorrow. But as some here have already mentioned we have EOQ tomorrow, which should be supportive for equities.
        Have a great evening everyone.

  26. Thanks Tony. If A was 2115 to 2045 70 points B up to 2089 Then C =A 70 points right at the 2019 Pivot. Good luck all.

  27. mjtplayer says:

    Thanks Tony – have whiplash yet?

    Nice rally today to the .618 retrace area off the SPX 2,114 high last Monday. One problem the market had last Mon & Tues was terribly light volume – rallies die on light volume. Last Monday, when the SPX was close to testing the ATH’s, the SPY printed the lightest volume day of 2015 at 71m shares (average daily volume for the SPY is about 120m shares).

    Last Wed & Thurs, as the market was plunging lower, SPY averaged over 155m shares traded (153m & 159m respectively).

    Today’s big point gain up to important resistance areas on the SPX: just 83m shares traded on the SPY – that’s pathetic for a rally of this size. Over 30% lighter volume than the average daily and 45% lighter volume then the sell-off last Wed & Thurs.

  28. fotis2 says:

    Thanks Tony any possibility of 2084 being a b wave of Minute C?

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