Monday update

SHORT TERM: gap up and go Monday, DOW +264

Overnight the Asian markets gained 1.3%. European markets opened higher and gained 1.1%. US index futures were higher overnight. At 8:30 Personal income was reported higher: +0.4% v +0.3%, Personal spending higher: +0.1% v -0.2%, and the PCE was reported higher: +0.1% v +0.1%. The market gapped up at the open, over the OEW 2070 pivot, at SPX 2077 and continued to rally. At 10am the SPX hit 2084, just short of the 2085 pivot, then began to pullback. Also at 10am Pending home sales were reported higher: +3.1% v +1.7%. Around 10:30 the SPX hit 2079 and began to rally again. By 3:30 the SPX had hit 2089, then pulled back to close at 2086.

For the day the SPX/DOW gained 1.35%, and the NDX/NAZ gained 1.15%. Bonds lost 2 ticks, Crude slipped 30 cents, Gold slid $13, and the USD was higher. Medium term support rises to the 2085 and 2070 pivots, with resistance at the 2131 and 2198 pivots. Tomorrow: Case-Shiller at 9am, the Chicago PMI at 9:45, then Consumer confidence at 10am.

The market had a gap opening today, for the 14th time this month in 21 trading days. It has been one of those kinds of months. Today’s gap up opening followed a gain on Friday, and broke the six week streak of no back to back rising days in the SPX. The longest streak of this nature since 1994. You may recall the market hit its most oversold condition last week, on the hourly RSI 5, since 2001. This market has been certainly pushing the negative technical envelop, but is still less than 2% from its all time high. At the open the market gapped over the 2070 pivot, then later on hit the 2085 pivot range. Quite a rebound considering the SPX was at 2046 only Thursday. After the five waves down from SPX 2120, the market has risen in three waves from SPX 2046: 2067-2053-2089. The action over the next day, or so, will determine if the market is impulsing higher, or continuing the pullback/correction. If we see a pullback then higher highs it is likely impulsing. If not, then the pullback/correction continues. Short term support is at the 2085 and 2070 pivots, with resistance at SPX 2115 and SPX 2120. Short term momentum hit extremely overbought today, then dipped a bit. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: still an uptrend until it fails

LONG TERM: bull market


About tony caldaro

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129 Responses to Monday update

  1. mjtplayer says:

    SPX 2,066 support from the lower TL of the wedge/ED pattern has held, so far…


  2. Kevin Robinson says:

    The Market is giving you a gift here. The end of quarter portfolio adjustments happening since options expiration is 100% normal and quite predictable. What happens next? Well seasonally there should be a 1 1/2 to two week rally starting tomorrow. April is always a great month for equities in pre-election years interestingly enough that link that I have provided is tracking this year perfectly so far………

    Furthermore we should fill yesterdays gap and then surge over 2100 by Thursday or next Monday at the latest…Unfortunately EW won’t see this coming and most here from what I can see expect the market to crash from here. Wow!!! Such bias never take place. The market is about to whip some a s s


  3. ashram says:

    There is a Gold monthly cycle low due for March, which makes the following highly relevant:
    Despite the large weekly rise in the gold price speculative traders increased their short positions.
    Current Managed Money short positions are at all-time nominal highs at over 84,000 short contracts outstanding.
    This rise in short after a large rise in the gold price is unusual and suggests that the latest rise in gold was not due to COT short covering.

    We take a contrarian view and think gold may have much more short-term upside.


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