Friday update

SHORT TERM: consolidation day, DOW +34

Overnight the Asian markets lost 0.3%. Europe opened higher but finished mixed. Before the open FED vice chair Fischer’s speech was released: US index futures were higher then lower overnight, and at 8:30 Q4 GDP was reported unchanged at +2.2%. The market opened one point below yesterday’s SPX 2056 close and then tried to rally. At 10am the SPX hit 2062, pulled back to 2053 just after 10am, then rallied to 2063 just before 11am. Then after a pullback to SPX 2056 by 12:30, the market rallied back to 2063 as FED chair Yellen’s speech was released: Then the market closed at SPX 2061 close.

For the day the SPX/DOW rose 0.20%, and the NDX/NAZ rose 0.50%. Bonds gained 12 ticks, Crude dropped $3.05, Gold slipped $4, and the USD was lower. Medium term support remains at the 2019 and 1973 pivots, with resistance at the 2070 and 2085 pivots. Today the WLEI was reported higher: 46.8% v 46.3%.

The market opened slightly lower today, bounced to SPX 2062, and then pulled back to 2053. Then after a rally to SPX 2063 by 11am, the market went into a seven point trading range for the rest of the day. Thus far, we can still count five small degree waves down from SPX 2115: 2099-2108-2049-2059-2046. After that we had a decent rally to SPX 2067. This has been followed by a drop to a higher SPX 2053 low, then a rally to 2063 so far. The market continues to look lower in the coming days until we start seeing some impulse waves to the upside. Short term support remains at SPX 2035/2040 and the 2019 pivot, with resistance at the 2070 and 2085 pivots. Short term momentum hovered around neutral for most of the day. Best to your weekend!

MEDIUM TERM: downtrend probability increasing

LONG TERM: bull market


About tony caldaro

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24 Responses to Friday update

  1. Interesting Article:
    What’s next: We should make a 3/27 Low +/-1 Trading Day at the 3/27 Geometric CIT and start a relative sharp rally into the next proprietary Solar CIT. Be ready as the next decline after that won’t be pretty”.

    • llerias7 says:

      Raj was wrong badly before predicting a steep fall in February…he admited. You may see in the archives. Time frames is just an apendix to real TA.

    • tommyboys says:

      Eagle so you joined his service…what date is he giving for the next – horrendous – Solar CIT?

      • I didn’t join the service but it sounds you like you want to join the srvice to get your answer. Be open to other opinions and make YOUR decision based on the information you process.
        Enjoy your weekend and regardless make lots of money come Monday🙂

        • tommyboys says:

          Oh – in the comments there I thought you said you just “signed up”. Yes I would like his dates as I do try to consider as many “credible” opinions as possible. His seems on the credible side.

          • tommyboys says:

            Well maybe its not you but a Baldeagletrader indicates in comments that he just subscribed…fwiw😉

  2. fishonhook says:

    “downtrend probability increasing”

    Tony has come off the fence.

  3. torehund says:

    ..wahtt support a 1700 rally from her is my count on copper and the gold bug index that show Clear signs of bottoming, lets see.

  4. Looks like we closed the week with enough pessimism for the seasonal rally next week. Looking for a rally back to the initial Janet speech high spike at 2104-2107.

  5. Lee X says:
    June it is , she’s so attractive when she’s hawkish

    • torehund says:

      First optimism has to run rampant, making folks have a reason to loan money on low rates, then the price of loaning money Will rise due to excessive demand, and then we Will crash and burn in a prim 4 With an 8 percent interest rates, enter prim 5 and finish it in cycle wave 1. Thereafter deflation until 2033, or ?🙂 The fall of commodity demand after China makes it cycle wave 1 Will be a sight to see (quoting Prechter)

  6. rabbittrader1 says:

    I lost my post, and am not repeating it, except to say SPX up next week, Gold down and crude oil up.. Got to pile more snow on my pyramid. rabbit

  7. mjtplayer says:

    The SPX spend the entire day under the lower TL of the wedge/ED formation, that’s poor price action considering the drop we’ve had. Today seemed like a light volume, oversold bounce to help burn-off the oversold conditions that registered yesterday morning. Weekly bearish engulfing candle on the SPX.

    SPX could bounce further, possibly up into the 2,070’s or 2,080 area, but that’s uncertain

  8. nyjsec314 says:

    Thx Tony.

    Covered my crude today on the close. Still had a strong week and could go either way over the weekend.

  9. Boys and Girls, Very sharp rally coming, in fact 2 days before, model was predicting that “if next 2days remain dull” then we go down, and last two days have been dull.

    I am looking at algo again with disbelief but it is Sure shot Rally. On Monday, it may come to 2051 level, BAH (Buy And Hold).DYODD. Be aware, stop loss needs to be 2028. Now, order of strength is, DAX,SPX,FTSE and INDU.

    I will recheck everything and only if incorrect, then will post on weekend update, else, no post.

  10. torehund says:

    Thanks Tony, good weekend to bulls and bears.

  11. Hi Tony

    Great blog as per usual.

    What are OEW time rules for wave 2’s and 4’s?

    I.e. What’s the max time a wave 2 can be greater than wave 1 (if any max)


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