SHORT TERM: consolidation day, DOW +34
Overnight the Asian markets lost 0.3%. Europe opened higher but finished mixed. Before the open FED vice chair Fischer’s speech was released: http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/fischer20150327a.htm. US index futures were higher then lower overnight, and at 8:30 Q4 GDP was reported unchanged at +2.2%. The market opened one point below yesterday’s SPX 2056 close and then tried to rally. At 10am the SPX hit 2062, pulled back to 2053 just after 10am, then rallied to 2063 just before 11am. Then after a pullback to SPX 2056 by 12:30, the market rallied back to 2063 as FED chair Yellen’s speech was released: http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/yellen20150327a.htm. Then the market closed at SPX 2061 close.
For the day the SPX/DOW rose 0.20%, and the NDX/NAZ rose 0.50%. Bonds gained 12 ticks, Crude dropped $3.05, Gold slipped $4, and the USD was lower. Medium term support remains at the 2019 and 1973 pivots, with resistance at the 2070 and 2085 pivots. Today the WLEI was reported higher: 46.8% v 46.3%.
The market opened slightly lower today, bounced to SPX 2062, and then pulled back to 2053. Then after a rally to SPX 2063 by 11am, the market went into a seven point trading range for the rest of the day. Thus far, we can still count five small degree waves down from SPX 2115: 2099-2108-2049-2059-2046. After that we had a decent rally to SPX 2067. This has been followed by a drop to a higher SPX 2053 low, then a rally to 2063 so far. The market continues to look lower in the coming days until we start seeing some impulse waves to the upside. Short term support remains at SPX 2035/2040 and the 2019 pivot, with resistance at the 2070 and 2085 pivots. Short term momentum hovered around neutral for most of the day. Best to your weekend!
MEDIUM TERM: downtrend probability increasing
LONG TERM: bull market