Thursday update

SHORT TERM: gap down opening, DOW -40

Overnight the Asian markets lost 1.2%. Europe opened lower and lost 0.6%. US index futures were lower overnight, and at 8:30 weekly Jobless claims were reported lower: 282k v 291k. The market gapped down at the open to SPX 2051, dipped to 2049, bounced to 2059, and then headed lower, all in the first half hour. The market had closed at SPX 2061 yesterday. By 10:30 the SPX hit 2046, and then started to rally. By noon the SPX had closed the opening gap and then reached 2067 by 2pm. But in the last hour the SPX hit 2057 just past 3pm, bounced to 2062 by 3:30, then closed at 2056.

For the day the SPX/DOW were -0.25%, and the NDX/NAZ were -0.30%. Bonds lost 18 ticks, Crude rallied $2.20, Gold rose $8, and the USD was higher. Medium term support remains at the 2019 and 1973 pivots, with resistance at the 2070 and 2085 pivots. Tomorrow: before the open a speech from FED vice chair Fischer at 6:30, Q4 GDP (est. +2.4%) at 8:30, Consumer sentiment at 10am, then a speech from FED chair Yellen at 3:45.

The market gapped down at the open today, found support at SPX 2046, then rallied to 2067 by the afternoon. Today’s low represented nearly a 70 point decline from Monday’s SPX 2115 high. We could count five small waves down: 2099-2108-2049-2059-2046, before the rally to 2067. Before the open we updated the charts to display a potential: Minute A (2120-2040), Minute B (2040-2115), and Minute wave C underway. At SPX 2040 Minor 2 would form a flat, at SPX 2035 Minute C would equal Minute A, and at the OEW 2019 pivot Minor 2 would form a zigzag. These are the three levels we are monitoring. At today’s low the hourly RSI 5 hit its lowest level in more than 14 years. That’s some serious selling. Should we make a lower low soon, this would set up a nice positive divergence. Short term support is at SPX 2035/2040 and the 2019 pivot, with resistance at the 2070 and 2085 pivots. Short term momentum rebounded to near neutral during today’s rally. Best to your trading the often volatile GDP report!

MEDIUM TERM: downtrend probability increases

LONG TERM: bull market


About tony caldaro

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106 Responses to Thursday update

  1. fotis2 says:

    Well glad that’s over I should of gone to the gym….


  2. nardobeme says:

    Well, for what it’s worth… I have a positive open signal for Monday. GL and GW to Tony and all.


  3. johnnymagicmoney says:

    I bought a butt load of TNA when IWM was in the red today hoping the money slut jawboned away yet another day. She’s a money slut until she is no longer a money slut


  4. lunker1 says:

    fish your SOX ED isn’t. EDs have 5 sets of 3 waves. yes a rising wedge but not an ED


  5. Page says:

    We have seen the low in SPX, I am expecting huge rally to take off BIG time.
    Have a nice weekend all.


  6. johnnymagicmoney says:

    today’s market zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz and one more z


  7. Always remember, why work if we can live on benefits and why trade if market direction is unknown. Sunday night SPX,future will be up about 12 points, sell there, enjoy your weekend.


  8. scottycj1 says:

    This looks like a wave 4 on the shorter term charts—triangle/pennant. A push to new lows here and then rally into mid next week before another drop.


  9. learnedmylesson25 says:

    Certainly a very tepid bounce from oversold conditions.If the bots and Fed don t start cranking this up the last hour, looks pretty poor for Monday.Wouldn t mind a couple more percent down by mid next week.Have a good weekend.


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