SHORT TERM: wacky Wednesday, DOW +227
Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.4%. European markets opened lower but gained 0.4% as well. US index futures were lower overnight, and the market gapped down to SPX 2067 at the open. The SPX had closed at 2074 yesterday. In the opening minutes the market dropped to SPX 2065, bounced to 2070 by 11am, then drifted down to 2061 by 1:30. At 2pm the FED released its statement and economic projections with the SPX at 2067: http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/monetary/20150318a.htm, http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/monetary/20150318b.htm. The market then took off to the upside in one of the biggest spikes up in recent memory. At 3:30 the SPX hit 2107, then pulled back to 2096 just before a 2099 close.
For the day the SPX/DOW were +1.25%, and the NDX/NAZ were +1.00%. Bonds rallied 42 ticks, Crude rose $1.70, Gold added $22, and the USD tanked 1.90%. Medium term support rises to the 2085 and 2070 pivots, with resistance at the 2131 and 2198 pivots. Tomorrow: weekly Jobless claims at 8:30, then the Philly FED and Leading indicators at 10am.
Another volatile FOMC day. The market gapped down at the open, retracing all of yesterday’s rally by 10am. By 1:30 the SPX hit 2061, drifted up to 2067 by 2pm, then spiked to the upside when the FED stated: growth and inflation were slower than expected, and they would like to see more job growth before raising rates. Within one minute of the announcement the SPX rallied past yesterday’s 2079 high on its way to 2107 in the last hour of trading. Today’s pullback looked like a continuation zigzag from Monday’s SPX 2081 high: 2065-2079-2061. We are counting the entire rally from last Wednesday’s SPX 2040 low as a Minute i – ii (2066-2041), then a Micro 1 – 2 – 3 of Minute iii (2081-2061-2107 so far). Today looked like the start of a three of three. Short term support is at the 2085 and 2070 pivots, with resistance SPX 2107 and the 2019 pivot. Short term momentum hit oversold during the pullback, then ended the day quite overbought. Best to your trading!
MEDIUM TERM: uptrend
LONG TERM: bull market