Friday update

SHORT TERM: gap down opening, DOW -146

Overnight the Asian markets finished mixed. Europe opened higher and gained 0.4%. US index futures were lower overnight, and at 8:30 the PPI was reported lower: -0.5% v -0.8%. The market gapped down at the open to SPX 2060, dipped to 2057, bounced to 2064, and then headed lower. At 10am Consumer sentiment was reported lower: 91.2 v 95.4. Just before noon the SPX hit 2041, nearly fully retracing yesterday’s rally. Then after a rally to SPX 2050 the market headed lower again. SPX 2041 was hit again around 2:30, then the market rallied to close at 2053.

For the day the SPX/DOW were -0.70%, and the NDX/NAZ were -0.45%. Bonds lost 6 ticks, Crude dropped $1.90, Gold added $2, and the USD was higher. Medium term support remains at the 2019 and 1973 pivots, with resistance at the 2070 and 2085 pivots. Today the WLEI was reported higher: 46.0% v 45.4%.

The market gapped down at the open today, after yesterday’s gap up opening, and came within one point of retracing yesterday’s 26 point rally. While we were expecting a pullback after yesterday’s SPX 2066 close. We did not expect the pullback to be a full retracement. Apparently Minor wave 2 is still trying to bottom out. More on this and an interesting intra-market relationship in the weekend update. Best to your weekend!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: bull market


About tony caldaro

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36 Responses to Friday update

  1. Hi Tony

    Are there any stocks/countries or ETF you like for wave 3 to upside in the coming months ahead?

    Thank you Tony

  2. torehund says:

    Difficult to fall asleep when I have bullish pattern for indexes and then abyssmal for oil, something isnt right. So I stressed myself finding a valid end pattern for the Seadrill case(driller), also validating the oil inversion pattern that I made earlier.

  3. lunker1 says:

    SPX bounced off its daily BB and closed inside it….again.

    VIX bounce off its BB…again.

  4. rabbittrader1 says:

    Monday should see a GAP up opening ,IMHO. WHY? who knows, maybe Putin is assassinated or overthrown. Maybe it is just where we are in EW .Maybe pattern recognition re-occurring. Maybe it is just a Rabbit thing.

  5. kvilia says:

    Thank you Tony! I loaded up at the close, fully invested now and expecting to ride to the 2200 vicinity. Really liked RUT action today.
    Enjoy your weekend and spring tulips.

  6. bhupal777 says:

    Thanks Tony. I am hoping in your Week end review you will layout some possibilities for coming week as it is a crazy FED’s week. It is so funny that there is not going to be any thing new but people still eagerly look for it. Emotional trading will make millions of dollars for brokerage companies in the form of commissions. Either way I am not going to enter any new positions or exit of existing positions by close of Wednesday. So I am going to watch from sidelines.

  7. jeffbalin says:

    Naz actually made new low today. I’m thinking there is more downside to go here.

  8. CB says:

    Thanks Tony.
    Some trading thoughts:
    wed 3/11 New Low , +d at the LOD
    thurs 3.12 testing highs ,partial gap-fill, OB at HOD, “strong as a bull”
    fri 3.13 (OMG Friday the 13the again) – testing low again , another +d
    sunday 3.15 – someone pls. give Schauble and Veroufakis “couples Therapy”- …OK, it’s worked, everything is peachy again (intermarket “relationship,” anyone 😉 just kidding
    Monday 3.16 -testing highs again (2070ish-2080 ish)….
    Tuesday 3.17 -pre- Yellen angst..??

    • tony caldaro says:

      Sounds like a confused shopper rising up and down escalators in a mall =)

      • CB says:

        haha.. oh wait, always use the stairs. It’s healthier : )
        Tony, zero confusion here – we’ll be testing the recent high….countertrend rally is not done yet.

      • zvyezda says:

        Yep, it sounds like the market! I can’t figure out the structure to this, as it seems as if it would be too long in duration for this wave degree, but it ‘feels’ as if we go to either side of the 2085 pivot but within the range, and then we try for your .618 retrace at 2036.
        All I want for Spring is a nice quiet ‘buy and hold’,

    • ashram says:

      CB says:
      March 12, 2015 at 3:16 pm
      this correction is not done yet…Now we are rallying. OK, so far so good. Take a look at the January correction, please. What stands out to you there? Just trying to be cautious, expecting more volatility, Ashram.

      • CB says:

        You too, Ashram! Nice job. The Ashram low is still holding 🙂 Hey, can you be sure to be here on Monday to help me wipe egg off my face? ; )
        Let’s look at it this way, everyone can make lots of $$ in a trading range… that’s the good news here.

      • +1 nice done CB. it been quite a sumo match YTD but so far seems like bears have an unfair weight advantage

        • CB says:

          LOL..Good point, Matador. Our central planners know how to use bears’ money for bullish purposes, though…Get some R&R, everyone.., next week is going to be crazy again..

  9. gtoptions says:

    Thanks Tony
    SPY ~ 13/34 CCI remained below zero. That CCI combo has saved me before so, Cash is King.
    Good Weekend All.

  10. fotis2 says:

    Could be sideways to Yellen but techs on daily look ok for up lets see what Monday brings.

  11. llerias7 says:

    In my opinion we will get stuck in a range 2040-2070 for the next few days until Yellen FOMC…”business as usual”.

  12. Lee X says:

    Thanks Tony
    I like the sound of that intra market relationship !
    Stay dry my friend

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