Thursday update

SHORT TERM: gap up and go opening, DOW +260

Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.9%. Europe opened lower but gained 0.1%. US index futures were higher overnight. At 8:30 weekly Jobless claims were reported lower: 289k v 320k, Retail sales were reported lower: -0.6% v -0.8%, and Export (+0.2% v -1.0%)/Import (-0.3% v -0.7%) prices were reported mixed. The market gapped up at the open to SPX 2048 and continued to rally. At 10am Business inventories were reported flat: +0.0% v +0.1%. The rally continued until 11:30 when the SPX hit 2062. Then after a pullback to 2057 by 12:30, the market moved even higher. Heading into the close the market hit SPX 2066 and closed there.

For the day the SPX/DOW were +1.35%, and the NDX/NAZ were +0.80%. Bonds gained 5 ticks, Crude dropped $1.15, Gold slipped $1, and the USD was lower. Medium term support remains at the 2019 and 1973 pivots, with resistance at the 2070 and 2085 pivots. Tomorrow: the PPI at 8:30, then Consumer sentiment at 10am.

The market gapped up today for the first time since February 12th. The rally cleared short term resistance at SPX 2051 in the opening minutes, hit 2062, pulled back a bit, then headed toward the 2070 pivot range. During the entire SPX 2120 to 2040 decline the market’s biggest rallies were each 16 points. This occurred twice. Today’s 26 point rally far exceeded both. With the market rallying into the OEW 2070 pivot range it appears the Minor wave 2 pullback may be over. We posted a tentative green 2 label at yesterday’s low. Next we would like to see a pullback, then a rally to a higher high to be more convinced the pullback has ended. At yesterday’s low Minute C equaled exactly twice Minute A. Short term support is at SPX 2051 and SPX 2040, with resistance at the 2070 and 2085 pivots. Short term momentum ended the day slightly overbought. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: bull market


About tony caldaro

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158 Responses to Thursday update

  1. simpleiam says:

    Some brokers having computer probs at the close. Flashes close of 2065, then 2053, continually.

  2. I was politely requesting you to book losses to all those bulls. I also politely requested you to not listen to Richard Russell who on 28 Dec 14 (when SPX was at 2086) said “SPX to touch 3140 ,so buy now”.

    Pl. don’t ignore signs. Book losses ASAP.

  3. tommyboys says:

    SP down 3.5% from ATHs…

  4. I think 2041.10 was the low y’day / today 2041.17. Martin has a great track record . He crushed it at Opco in 87.He also advises Caxton , Jana , Omega , D.E Shaw and many more. I think he makes
    reference to the stupidity of ECB purchasing negative rates too (maybe they should buy empty malls) And for the record , he is NOT a perennial gloom and doom bear.On that note , how about Marc Faber saying he likes blue chips now – not a good sign. Cash is a position too !
    Embrace the possibilities

  5. fotis2 says:

    Double bottom on 15min long 2044 to 2060

  6. simpleiam says:

    No doubt Fed Statement will determine mkts direction beginning Wed; probably chop suey until then. If traders think (not necessarily know) no rate hike, or if they think (not nec. know) rate hike, then stocks either straight up or straight down; they spin as they like. Doesn’t matter how much or how little a rise, spin/perception will pretty much be everything. With USD as strong as it is, I hope Fed holds off on any rate-rise talk.

    Have a great weekend All!

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