Friday update

SHORT TERM: another gap down opening, DOW -279

Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.4%. Europe opened higher but lost 0.1%. US index futures were lower overnight. At 8:30 Payrolls were reported better than expected: +295k v +257k, the Unemployment rate dropped to 5.5% v 5.7%, and the Trade deficit improved: -$41.8bn v -$46.6bn. Nevertheless, the market gapped down at the open to SPX 2093, dipped to 2091, and then tried to rally. The market had closed at SPX 2101 yesterday. At 10am the SPX hit 2096 and then started to pullback again. The pullback continued into the afternoon until the SPX found support at 2072 by 1:30. Then after a bounce to SPX 2078 the market moved even lower. Heading into the close the SPX hit 2067, then bounced to end the week at 2071.

For the day the SPX/DOW lost 1.50%, and the NDX/NAZ lost 1.15%. Bonds dropped 34 ticks, Crude slid $1.10, Gold fell $31, and the USD rallied. Medium term support drops to the 2070 and 2019 pivots, with resistance at the 2085 and 2131 pivots. Last night the FED reported a decline in the Monetary base: $3.807tn v $3.883tn. Today the WLEI was reported lower: 45.4% v 45.5%.

The market gapped down at the open today for the third time this week. There were no gap up openings this week. Despite the banks passing the FED’s stress test, and Payrolls coming in much better than expected, the market sold the good news. All major assets sold off except the USD. June rate increase fears? We started this week with potentially four short term counts. Until today none of them had been eliminated. With today’s decline below SPX 2072, we can now clearly state we had five waves up from SPX 1981 to 2120. We will cover the implications in the weekend update. Sensing spring is right around the corner, best to your weekend!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: bull market


About tony caldaro

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33 Responses to Friday update

  1. It is SELL now on all indices except DAX, FTSE. FTSE should go in SELL on Monday.

    SPX should rise ST to 2089-2098. It is SELL at that price (so when SPX hits that level SELL all indices). Will update model over the weekend and send another update.

    SPX could fall to as low as 1680, but needs to break 2041 quickly.

  2. mjtplayer says:

    Tony – just curious, why does the group favor 5 minute waves up to minor 1 and not 5 minor waves up to int i?

    Also, your thoughts on a potential major 5 ED?

  3. hkloon says:

    Tony, if im reading your chart correctly, 2120 is minor 1 and minor 2 is underway….

  4. #UVXY, #SPX, #JNUG, #GOLDMINERS, #eur/usd, #usd/sek: most recent market update and plan (found within end of blog’s comments section):

  5. bhupal777 says:

    Thanks Tony.

    In such a down market my KRE did a great job today. In first 30 minutes it was up more than 2%. But didn’t hold all those gains but still ended up in green. But I think it will continue the upside move once it crosses 41. May be next week.

  6. Lee X says:

    Thanks Tony
    No more ice skating on your cement pond til next year

  7. blackjak100 says:

    Thx TC – looks like a 20pt bounce at the very least is up next. Extremely oversold at the 38.2% retrace.

  8. lunker1 says:

    sorry my bad math today
    from 2120
    H&S target 2054

    today low the 38.2% at 2067
    50% 2051
    62% 2034

  9. torehund says:

    ..thanks Tony.
    And if Your Readers are falling to sleep…ZZzzzz, then look at my favorite crazy Medical Device maker..Yes biotech index could top out in mid May !!!

  10. M1 says:

    Great Tony !!

  11. mike7x says:

    Thanks Tony. So, is the market going to “spring” forward next week, or fall back? Spring doesn’t seem to have arrived…yet.😉

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